2024 US Presidential Election: Key Time Nodes and Current Polling Situation

The 2024 US presidential election will officially kick off in January next year. This overseas weekly report aims to summarize the key time nodes of the upcoming election and the current poll situation.

The US presidential election process can be divided into four stages：

The first stage is the primary and caucus held from January to June in the election year, where each state or constituency elects their respective parties' presidential candidate. The primary is organized by state and local governments using anonymous voting, while the caucus is a private activity held by each party that allows voters to openly express their support for candidates and form groups to campaign for them. If no candidate reaches the required number of votes for victory, there will be a runoff election.

The second stage is the national nominating conventions held from July to early September, where each party determines the presidential and vice-presidential candidates based on primary and caucus results and proposes campaign platforms.

The third stage is the presidential debates held from September to October, including three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate.

The fourth stage is the presidential general election, electoral college vote, and inauguration of the president. The presidential general election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, where voters can vote for any presidential candidate regardless of party affiliation. The Electoral College vote is held in December of the election year, with 538 electoral votes, and a candidate needs to get 270 votes to win. The elected president is inaugurated and delivers an inaugural speech on January 20th of the following year (or January 21st if it falls on a Sunday).

The important time nodes for the 2024 US presidential election are as follows: 1) The Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses on January 15th and the New Hampshire Presidential Primaries on January 23rd; 2) Super Tuesday on March 5th, with 16 states holding primaries and caucuses; 3) The Republican National Convention from July 15th to July 18th to determine the Republican candidate and platform; 4) The Democratic National Convention from August 19th to August 22nd to determine the Democratic candidate and platform; 5) The three presidential debates on September 16th, October 1st, and October 9th, which could have a significant impact on the final election results; and 6) The presidential general election day on November 5th.

Biden and Trump are significantly leading in their respective political parties. Although both the Democratic and Republican parties have 7-8 presidential candidates, Biden has a lead over other Democratic candidates (latest support rate of 56.5%), while Trump leads among Republican candidates (latest support rate of 60.6%). According to various polls, Trump is currently ahead of Biden, despite Biden having led most polls from July last year until September this year. Based on estimates from polling websites such as "Race to the WH," Biden currently has 235 electoral votes, while Trump has 301 electoral votes (in the 2016 election, Trump won with 304 votes vs. 227 for Clinton; in the 2020 election, Biden won with 306 votes vs. 232 for Trump).

Next week's important events include US new and existing home sales, new home construction permits, personal income, PCE price index, preliminary durable goods orders, and consumer confidence index; and Japan's Bank of Japan interest rate decision meeting on December 19th. Last week, major data showed a decline in US mortgage rates and gasoline retail prices, a significant decline in the US financial conditions index, and a narrowing yield spread between long-term government bonds in the US and Japan/Europe.