2024 Half-Year Recap | U.S. and Japanese Equities Take the Lead,Commodity Returns Flourish
In the first half of 2024, global assets saw a swift rotation of investment focus. Early on, liquidity expansion boosted Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. The spotlight then moved to Japanese stocks, gold, and copper, before turning to the Hong Kong market.
As we wrap up June, let's review the top-performing assets of the first half!
1. U.S. And Japanese Stock Markets Hit New Highs
Since the beginning of this year, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ climbed by 17.84% and 14.57% respectively. The Nasdaq's outperformance compared to $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ 's 3.88% increase reflects a notable divergence in stock performance, highlighting the dominance of large-cap equities over small-caps and the ongoing preference for growth stocks over value stocks.
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ 's 15.34% rise was partly fueled by a substantial influx of foreign investment, which has reinvigorated investor sentiment in the Japanese market. The robust Q1 performance of U.S. tech giants also had a positive spillover effect, particularly benefiting Japanese semiconductor and other large enterprises.
2. Metals and Energy Markets Flourish Amid Global Shifts
In H1 2024, $Gold Futures(DEC4) (GCmain.US)$ hit record highs, peaking at $2,454 per ounce, with a 12.69% increase due to central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand, and futures markets pricing in rate cuts. $Silver Futures(DEC4) (SImain.US)$ led global assets with a 22.81% rise, supported by rate cut expectations and a fundamental shortage. $Copper Futures(DEC4) (HGmain.US)$ surged 13.85% this year, fueled by recovering global manufacturing and energy transition demands, coupled with supply disruptions and slowing output growth, raising concerns over a copper supply shortfall.
$Brent Last Day Financial Futures(DEC4) (BZmain.US)$ rose 9.27%, with Q1 gains on OPEC+ cuts and strong European demand, followed by Q2 declines amid weak European and Asia-Pacific demand. $Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures(NOV4) (NGmain.US)$ gained 8.15%, driven by geopolitical tensions and tightening supplies.
3. US Treasury 10Y Bond Index Revert to Year-Start Level as Dollar Index Ascends
Amid the rollercoaster swings in the U.S. Treasury yields driven by market expectations for Fed rate cuts, US Treasury 10 Year Bond Index also went through a process of initial decline followed by a gradual recovery, ending the first half of the year with only a modest decrease of 0.1%.
$USD (USDindex.FX)$ rose 4.39%, rebounding from its end-of-2023 low, but with a moderate overall increase. The resilience in core U.S. economic indicators such as inflation and employment has postponed rate cut expectations and spurred a rebound in dollar interest rates, which is the main force behind the index's recovery.
Outlook for the Second Half: Interest Rates, Geopolitics, and AI's Industrial Impact
Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, several pivotal factors are set to influence asset pricing dynamics :
1) Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Timing: The market is closely watching for cues on the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rate adjustments, with the timing of any cuts being a critical factor for asset valuations.
2) Geopolitical Risks and Election Impact: The geopolitical landscape, along with the outcomes of major elections in several large economies, particularly the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, could introduce a layer of uncertainty into global asset markets.
3) AI-Led Industrial Transformation: The transformative power of AI is expected to continue reshaping industries worldwide, with AI-centric and related sectors poised to sustain profit growth and drive investment opportunities.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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