What impact will Venezuela's dramatic change have on cryptocurrencies and various assets?
The author of this article, Charlie, is the former Vice President of Strike, a cryptocurrency unicorn (involved in El Salvador's Bitcoin bill and responsible for Bitcoin and stablecoin payment businesses in Latin America), a macro analyst at Franklin Templeton, a trillion-dollar fund, and an early member of Adyen North America, a global payment giant. He currently serves as a cryptocurrency strategic advisor to multiple listed companies, startups, and investment institutions.
This is a verbatim transcript of a podcast recorded on January 5th, US time. Interested friends can click ['View Original'] to listen.
Hello everyone, welcome to 2026. It’s been a long time since our last update, and we’re finally back communicating with you all.
For the new year, our plan is to better integrate this podcast with our official WeChat account. Over the past year, our WeChat posts mainly focused on blockchain and cryptocurrency content, and we’ll continue that direction in the coming year as well.
The new year has started with a very interesting beginning.
A highly shocking emergency occurred over the weekend. This event is extremely related to my previous professional experience. The event, which many of you may already know about, is that Venezuela's president was unexpectedly captured by U.S. special forces in a blitz-like operation and then brought to the United States. Today, Monday, US time, it has also entered the courtroom for trial.
This entire incident has had a major impact on the overall Latin American market, as well as on international political dynamics and financial markets. When I was at Franklin Templeton, the market I covered was Latin America. Although I wasn't directly responsible for investments in Venezuela, other markets like Colombia and Chile, which I did cover, are highly relevant. For example, Colombia has also been affected in some ways by this incident, which I'll elaborate on later.
This event was very sudden, occurring on January 3rd, in the early hours of Saturday. The US Special Forces Delta Force launched a surprise raid on Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and his wife.
The operation, codenamed 'Absolute Resolve,' began around 2 AM. The U.S. military carried out airstrikes on many key targets in Caracas, and we can see online that many people posted images of U.S. military helicopters flying at low altitudes.
Shockingly, no resistance was encountered. The Delta Force quickly captured Maduro and his wife, and they were escorted out of the country by helicopter and transport aircraft. We can see that Trump also posted a very famous photo on social media: Maduro blindfolded, holding a bottle of Costco water, and dressed in Nike clothing. This photo spread across all social media platforms.
A brief overview: Why it is eye-catching
Why is it eye-catching? There are a few points. I will first provide a brief overview, as well as our baseline scenario for this situation, and an overall analysis of some tail risks. Afterwards, I will elaborate on specific analyses regarding international politics, US politics, capital markets, and even blockchain, among other aspects.
Overall:
It was not authorized by the United Nations. This unilateral military action represents a significant disruption to the internationally recognized norms, thus causing a major stir.
We can see that there were casualties not only among Venezuelan soldiers but also among civilians. In fact, given the close relationship between Venezuela and Cuba, several Cuban advisors also lost their lives during this operation.
Trump actually prosecuted Maduro on the charge of 'narco-terrorism' during his first term. The main charge for which he is being tried in a US court today is also this one. In the US narrative, this is considered a so-called legal act, but everyone knows that narco-terrorism is just a pretext, and behind it are still factors related to energy and crude oil.
This 'surgical enforcement' was very swift, but most countries are condemning the military action that was carried out without the approval of the UN Security Council. This sets a very, very dangerous precedent. You can imagine that with the ability to take such actions, no national leader is truly safe in an absolute sense.
We can see that most of the US's allies have been careful with their wording and haven't directly criticized. However, we can see that major powers like China and Russia, as well as Latin American countries like Brazil and Mexico, have strongly condemned the US for openly infringing on these nations' sovereignty.
The last time the US took such an action was around 1989 when it invaded Panama. It can be said that since that military operation, this is the most dramatic strong intervention by the US military in Latin America.
So especially now, when the international situation is rather chaotic, this has caused quite a shock. Many regimes have begun to worry: will we be next? The media is talking about Iran — because Iran has also experienced significant domestic turmoil recently.
Including the currently highly sensitive relations between major powers: whether the relationship between the US, China, and Russia will become more strained. Actions at this level go beyond the scope of so-called 'Latin American and American regional news' and constitute a global news event. Although everyone has been talking about the Monroe Doctrine lately — 'America is for Americans' — this incident indeed has international and global implications.
Base Case Scenario: Political Transition Has Begun
Overall, in my view, there is a base case scenario for how the situation is developing.
What we're seeing now is that Venezuela has already entered a political transition process. After Maduro was captured, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez temporarily took control of the capital and received support from the military. Today, we've seen US media reports stating that Rodríguez has started cooperating with Washington.
Interestingly, the US hasn’t directly supported the rise of Venezuela’s current opposition but has instead chosen to cooperate with the current vice president. We can see that the vice president is a so-called technocrat with good execution capabilities, so having her lead a transitional regime is actually quite a reasonable move.
The fundamental shifts I see going forward are: opening up the oil industry and cracking down on drug trafficking. These might be the two most important directions.
Today, we can see in Reuters' report that Chevron’s operations in Venezuela, which had been suspended for a few days, have started to resume. There's a photo of Chevron's oil tanker leaving Venezuela. We can see that the oil sector is experiencing a relatively smooth transition, and it also shows that the current interim government is cooperating relatively well with the United States.
Of course, there is still the threat of further military strikes by the U.S., as this lightning strike was relatively limited, targeting only a few key objectives. Next steps could include lifting the oil export ban, further opening the Venezuelan oil market to more American oil companies, and cooperating with U.S. anti-drug operations, all of which are likely scenarios.
Market Reaction: Betting on 'Contained Risk'
The market reaction also generally reflects this baseline scenario.
For example, oil prices only rose slightly, with Brent crude increasing by about 1.5%-1.6%. The stock market was also not significantly affected, with a slight increase.
Investors’ general assessment is that although Venezuela has very large reserves, production is limited due to industrial capacity constraints and the lack of openness to international oil companies, so its output accounts for only about 1% of the global total, which is very low. With a new government in place and the U.S. easing sanctions, Venezuela’s crude oil supply may increase, which is why oil prices haven’t risen very high.
This also indicates that investors currently view this as a situation of very contained risk: the market likely believes that the U.S. actions will stop here and be confined to Venezuela, not triggering wider conflict. Although many countries have voiced concerns about the U.S.'s next moves, we will discuss this further later.
Tail Risk: Low Probability, But Truly Dangerous
In addition to the baseline risk, there is also a tail risk. Though unlikely, we can imagine some extreme scenarios occurring.
If the situation worsens:
First, if China and Russia take asymmetric retaliatory actions—even if not directly confronting the US military, such as launching cyberattacks, supporting proxy nations to counteract, or using this as an excuse to do similar things to smaller countries elsewhere. For instance, if the US can take action to arrest people, then for those countries we perceive as threats, could we...? For example, what if Putin actually went ahead and captured Zelenskyy? These scenarios are not without probability.
The second and more dangerous scenario involves Iran. If Iran gets dragged into the conflict, its oil production is far higher than Venezuela’s. Located at the heart of the Middle East, Iran is a powder keg ready to explode at any time. If Iran were to join forces with Venezuela to oppose the US at this point, conflicts in the Gulf region could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil transportation routes. The result would not be just a modest 1.5% rise in oil prices but a potential surge, leading to a global energy crisis.
Inflation might skyrocket, severely impacting economic growth. Whether it triggers a global recession is highly possible. If such a black swan event occurs, both global markets and the geopolitical landscape will become extremely volatile.
Therefore, the baseline scenario remains relatively optimistic, calm, and possibly positive for both capital markets and crypto markets. However, tail risks still exist, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely.
Crypto: Geopolitics turning crypto financial infrastructure into a weapon and battlefield
Beyond the macro situation, when discussing the cryptocurrency ecosystem, we see that this incident reflects how geopolitics has turned crypto financial infrastructure into both a weapon and a battlefield.
Why say this? Because Venezuela’s activities in the crypto space over recent years represent an interesting case of strategic play between big and small nations.
Under the longstanding heavy sanctions imposed by the US, the Maduro regime has developed a kind of “crypto survival strategy” within the cryptocurrency realm. For instance, they use Tether’s USDT to bypass US financial sanctions. Reports suggest that starting from 2024, Venezuela may even allow foreign buyers to purchase oil using USDT.
Domestically, we know that Venezuela suffers from extreme inflation, strict import-export controls, and a tightly regulated currency. Many businesses and citizens have adopted cryptocurrencies as everyday transaction tools, using them to buy daily necessities. We see data estimating that by 2025, around 10% of retail transactions will be conducted via cryptocurrencies, while approximately 9% of national remittances flow through crypto channels.
So, amidst the cracks of U.S. financial blockades, cryptocurrency has become a pillar of Venezuela's shadow economy — much like in Argentina and other countries with severe inflation and currency controls: stablecoins have taken on the role of a 'dollar substitute.'
Now, since the U.S. is leading this change, we will see that the crypto economy, which runs parallel to the traditional banking system, will face a severe test.
The U.S. began pushing for stablecoin legislation last year, so-called 'co-opting,' tightening these crypto channels. Through OFAC sanctions and such, they may blacklist more wallet addresses and currency services related to Venezuela.
If you follow the U.S.-compliant stablecoin route, issuers have the right to freeze your address; compliant exchanges are also less likely to touch these funds. Venezuelan-related accounts face significant risks: once found to be linked to the Maduro government or sanctioned entities, they might be locked or frozen. We’ve seen that both Tether and Circle can freeze stablecoin addresses. Exchanges may temporarily ban Venezuelan IP access, even freezing local withdrawals and introducing stricter regulations.
Even the 'petro-cryptocurrency' Petro, issued by the Venezuelan government in 2018, could be more thoroughly delisted or isolated.
This isn't good news for ordinary Venezuelan users. In my previous venture, our design team lead lived in Venezuela and had a strong need to receive salary payments in stablecoins. If merchants and citizens start using stablecoins for payments, would they worry that their USDT becomes 'blacklisted coins,' possibly linked to the government or sanctioned addresses?
Upon the release of this news, there were rumors that local over-the-counter USDT trading immediately saw discounted sell-offs, such as selling USDT at $0.95 — fearing the coins would get locked in wallets. Although this is mostly speculation, it’s enough to indicate the panic.
If everyone rushes to convert potentially 'tainted' stablecoins into other assets, could this lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other cryptocurrencies that don’t depend on centralized issuers and can't be frozen at will? It’s possible.
Thus, in the short term, the use of crypto in Venezuela might decline, but gradually we’ll see a shift: from freezable stablecoins toward more decentralized, non-arbitrarily-freezable mainstream cryptocurrencies.
For other emerging markets, this serves as a warning: in countries like Argentina, Nigeria, and Kenya, people use crypto to hedge against local currency devaluation and financial instability. In the future, they'll be more concerned about whether the U.S. can enforce long-arm jurisdiction to freeze stablecoins and whether exchanges will suspend accounts at any time. They may shift towards more decentralized coins and decentralized exchanges.
Overall, this event has pushed the crypto financial pipeline to the front line of geopolitical games: there could be a larger split in the crypto world – on one side are 'compliant, sanitized' stablecoins, and on the other side is the decentralized, offshore gray area of crypto assets.
Regulations will continue to tighten, closing loopholes that hostile regimes exploit to evade sanctions using crypto. Anti-money laundering and anti-fraud measures will become stricter. Ordinary people are growing more concerned about traditional finance and centralized crypto but may increasingly rely on decentralized assets to protect their wealth.
Geopolitical risks for crypto: a double-edged sword
From the perspective of international order, the impact on crypto is two-sided.
On one hand, amid the atmosphere of 'who’s next,' decentralized, censorship-resistant assets (like Bitcoin) are becoming more attractive. People in high-risk regimes – such as wealthy elites or senior officials – fearing their assets could be frozen by traditional financial systems, might quietly shift their wealth from stablecoins to Bitcoin or privacy coins, moving it out of the banking system altogether.
There are rumors that Venezuela’s top leadership has been accumulating a shadow reserve of Bitcoin in recent years: converting part of its oil revenue into cryptocurrencies for storage. Reports suggest that Maduro’s regime has stockpiled up to 600,000 Bitcoins since 2018 through gold and oil trades, confiscation of mining operations, etc. While this figure is high and remains unverified, it highlights the possibility that Bitcoin could serve as a hidden national treasury. Similarly, sanctioned countries like Russia and Iran are exploring ways to bypass the dollar system using crypto.
From an investment perspective, investors may believe these regions will buy large amounts of BTC/ETH as a hedge, potentially driving up prices. Today’s slight rise in Bitcoin reflects that this line of thinking has gained some traction.
Rising geopolitical risks will boost long-term demand for crypto assets, and the narrative of 'digital gold' will be repeatedly highlighted – especially when the real world feels unsafe.
On the other hand, short-term geopolitical shocks can also hurt the crypto market. When risk-off mode kicks in, investors often sell high-risk assets first. Historically, during sudden conflicts that trigger financial panic, Bitcoin prices have usually crashed alongside equities rather than behaving like gold which tends to rise.
For example, at the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, with soaring oil prices, Bitcoin experienced a major drop. Amid the panic, funds flowed into traditional safe havens like the US dollar, US Treasuries, and gold. The 'digital gold' narrative did not hold up in the early stages of the crisis – at least initially, Bitcoin behaved more like a high-risk 'digital Nasdaq.'
So if the worst-case tail risks we mentioned earlier occur (such as conflict escalation, skyrocketing oil prices, etc.), Bitcoin may fall instead of rise.
Meanwhile, during times of heightened tensions, countries often impose stricter controls on capital flows to prevent capital flight: banning citizens from trading cryptocurrencies, tightening VPN restrictions, and more. As Western countries push forward with stablecoin legislation, they will also be more vigilant against hostile nations using crypto for fundraising or money laundering, freezing addresses at the slightest sign of trouble.
This is not good news for the gradually formalizing crypto industry: compliant exchanges and wallet service providers are forced to enhance monitoring, compliance costs increase, and user experience worsens. The development of the industry will be slowed down.
Overall, when the international order is disrupted, crypto will exhibit a contradictory double-edged sword effect: on the one hand reinforcing the narrative of being a 'safe-haven tool,' while on the other hand giving countries more reasons to weaponize the financial system and tighten control over crypto channels.
Sanctions and Compliance: The US Will 'Plug Loopholes,' Crypto Is a Key Link
This incident highlights the central role of sanctions in US strategy while also exposing vulnerabilities in traditional sanction mechanisms. The US will take this opportunity to address these shortcomings, and the crypto sector, previously relatively overlooked, will come under greater scrutiny.
For a long time, the US has imposed severe economic sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and others, with these regimes trying every means to evade them. Take Venezuela as an example: the Maduro government’s ability to survive largely stems from exploiting loopholes in the sanction system, and cryptocurrency is one of the key gaps.
After Maduro’s arrest, the US will analyze vast amounts of internal intelligence: how he maintained fiscal resources under sanctions. This will drive the US to strengthen crypto-related sanctions.
As expected, they will uncover substantial evidence: how Venezuelan officials or proxies used crypto and stablecoin transactions; how PDVSA bypassed banking supervision using USDT; how brokers helped businesses convert Bolivars into USDT for imports; who the counterparties were and what channels were used. Then the U.S. will close these loopholes one by one.
Going forward, we may see: OFAC’s sanction lists expanding, adding a batch of crypto wallet addresses related to Venezuela, even linking addresses tied to countries like Iran. More wallets will be frozen – especially those belonging to government officials, relevant institutions, and addresses involved in illegal oil trades.
In plugging the loophole, USD stablecoins will become more prominent: The US will pressure stablecoin issuers to implement geo-fencing or targeted freezes, restricting Venezuelan users and offshore accounts, and freezing addresses linked to criminal activities.
Once this happens, large amounts of USDT in the national treasury will be passively affected, causing significant damage. Liquidity of black-market USDT will drop sharply, and the USDT held by ordinary people will split into 'clean' and 'dirty.' Clean coins are those not associated with sanctioned funds; dirty coins will trigger panic, discounted selling, and reduced trading. There may even be a 'two-tier pricing' system: USDT could be sold at a steep discount locally, significantly reducing purchasing power for the public.
This differentiation between 'clean' and 'dirty' may not just stay within stablecoins but will also seep into DeFi and offshore exchanges: Platforms will strengthen geographic and address restrictions, unwilling to serve blacklisted users to avoid trouble with the US.
A more difficult issue arises if DeFi pools mix with funds that have touched sanctioned addresses, turning into 'dead money' that cannot be withdrawn, affecting pool exchange rates and causing headaches for protocol governance. Will DeFi protocols reject certain address collaterals? How to determine connections to sanctioned entities? Should assets be frozen? These all create conflicts between the ideal of 'decentralized governance' and real-world compliance.
Many core teams of DeFi projects, fearing lawsuits, may ultimately compromise with compliance to protect themselves. If major DeFi protocols adopt compliance filters, the DeFi ecosystem might split into 'clean DeFi' and 'underground DeFi': Compliance-focused institutional funds will enter, but privacy and borderless ideals fade; the underground side sticks to anti-censorship principles but may shrink in scale, existing in a 'guerrilla' form.
In any case, for global crypto companies, compliance costs will soar significantly: More resources will be devoted to monitoring on-chain activities and cooperating with investigations. On-chain monitoring and data analytics firms may benefit; small companies won't be able to bear it, and some minor projects will exit. Industry concentration will rise, innovation will slow down, and decentralization ideals will be compromised.
All in all, in terms of compliance and sanctions, this event has a profound impact on the crypto ecosystem. Venezuela, as an example of a sanctions loophole, will see this gap gradually tightened by the US. The crypto space may experience a round of 'purging': cleaning up parts exploited by authoritarian regimes, leading to short-term volatility and liquidity contraction; in the long run, forming a new structure — the clean side integrating more into mainstream finance, while the non-compliant side hides in the gray area. Ordinary users must be cautious: one misstep could lead to frozen assets or restricted transactions.
Unfortunately, against the backdrop of great power rivalry, 'Code is law' must give way: true law still belongs to state power. The crypto world will be reshaped by the heavy hand of the real world.
Energy: Short-term mild, long-term may depress oil prices (base scenario)
Now let’s talk about the elephant in the room: oil and gas. Although Venezuela’s production in recent years accounts for less than 1% of the global total, the regime's drastic change will profoundly affect oil, gas, and even shipping.
In the short term, the market perceives the crisis as minimal: Brent rose slightly by 1.5%, and investors are not overly concerned about supply disruptions. Chevron's oil tanker has left Venezuela, and signs indicate a low risk of oilfield shutdowns or port blockades. Production hasn’t been affected; in fact, many believe that after a regime change, the US might lift sanctions on Venezuelan oil, allowing more companies (American/European) to invest in exploration, extraction, and refining. Increased future supply will prevent oil prices from spiking.
Unless a worse scenario arises: the interim government loses control over remaining forces, leading to a 'scorched earth policy'—blowing up refineries or sabotaging pipelines. Repairing these facilities would take time and materially impact the oil market. Alternatively, military conflict disrupting tanker transport could create a stark contrast to the baseline scenario.
Medium- to long-term baseline: If the transition succeeds, the US partially lifts sanctions, and international oil companies return to invest, production will rise, increasing global supply, which could push oil prices down. However, this is an ideal scenario that requires stability and time (possibly two to three years before effects materialize).
Based on short- and medium- to long-term assessments: oil prices may rise slightly in the short term but decline over the long term, which is favorable for inflation; central banks have more room to ease, benefiting risk assets.
Gold, silver, and volatility: safe-haven buying occurred, but without panic.
Investors’ instinctive reaction to major geopolitical events: one, flocking to gold, silver, and US Treasuries; two, heightened uncertainty pushing up volatility.
This time was no exception: gold saw significant gains while stocks also rose (though not sharply). Both safe-haven and risk assets increased because investors believed the crisis would have limited impact on the global economy, being a localized event that wouldn’t hinder overall risk appetite.
The VIX hasn't surged much and remains in the teens; the crude oil volatility index has also risen moderately. This means: a few are cautious, but most remain relatively optimistic.
Macro view: the baseline remains largely undisturbed; tail risks could deteriorate rapidly.
A systematic review of macro factors: interest rates, dollar strength, emerging market credit risk, and global liquidity.
Macroeconomic backdrop at the beginning of 2026: Central banks have raised interest rates to combat inflation, and now with inflation easing and growth remaining weak, monetary policy is approaching a turning point —— either rates will stay high or start to decline, with the Fed’s rate cuts being an affirmation.
Will events in Latin America change the macroeconomic picture? In the baseline scenario, there is almost no disruption, and it may even be more accommodative: stable situation, cooperation from the new government, smooth transition, relaxed US sanctions, one less uncertainty for the global market, and investor focus returns to fundamentals. This year may welcome a looser monetary environment, in which crypto assets tend to perform better.
However, if tail risks occur (Middle East crisis, oil price spike), the macroeconomic situation deteriorates rapidly: inflation expectations rise, central banks become hawkish again, rate hike expectations return, and global liquidity tightens. Risk aversion pushes up the US dollar and Treasury yields, dealing a major blow to crypto. Emerging markets see soaring spreads, capital flight, local currency depreciation, debt crisis chain reactions, and risk assets fall together.
In summary, the macro impact depends on how the situation evolves.
AI and Energy: Rising priority on energy security will indirectly affect computing power infrastructure.
Finally, let’s discuss a more practical topic: Venezuela is related to energy, and energy is closely tied to AI.
The event itself has no direct relation to the AI industry, but its indirect impact lies in this: if it triggers a broader energy crisis or policy adjustments, countries will reassess energy allocation, affecting investment in AI infrastructure.
First level: Geopolitical conflicts cause energy supply tensions and soaring electricity prices; countries may take extraordinary measures to ensure power for critical sectors; in extreme cases, they might sacrifice high-energy-consuming but non-critical industries to safeguard livelihoods. AI is important, but in extreme situations, it could also become a sacrifice — slightly higher priority than crypto mining, but when real power distribution is needed, both crypto computing power and AI may temporarily give way.
Another perspective: the incident prompts global attention to energy security, forcing countries to invest in energy independence. With Venezuela, the country with the world’s largest reserves, falling under U.S. influence, other nations will reassess from an 'energy security first' perspective while not wanting to fall behind in the AI wave. Thus, a 'have-it-all' situation emerges: both 'drill baby drill' and 'build baby build,' expanding both energy production capacity and computing infrastructure simultaneously.
In the long run, this is actually beneficial for AI: the construction of AI data centers and training are currently bottlenecked by energy supply. The situation highlights energy security concerns, prompting countries to adopt a more strategic review of traditional and renewable energy sources — amidst intensifying US-China AI competition and geopolitical maneuvering, the interplay between AI and energy merits closer observation.
Ending
Today, we quickly analyzed the Venezuela incident from perspectives including international affairs, geopolitics, cryptocurrencies, various financial markets, and even AI and energy. Of course, it’s only the third day since the event unfolded, and more developments will gradually emerge.
The situation is quite complex, especially at sensitive time points. The year has just started, and we are already facing such an 'unbelievable' event.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. If this topic is interesting, we can also do live interviews. Thank you for your attention, and we hope you will enjoy our new format this year.
Okay, see you in the next episode, bye.
This is a verbatim transcript of a podcast recorded on January 5th, US time. Interested friends can click ['View Original'] to listen.
Hello everyone, welcome to 2026. It’s been a long time since our last update, and we’re finally back communicating with you all.
For the new year, our plan is to better integrate this podcast with our official WeChat account. Over the past year, our WeChat posts mainly focused on blockchain and cryptocurrency content, and we’ll continue that direction in the coming year as well.
The new year has started with a very interesting beginning.
A highly shocking emergency occurred over the weekend. This event is extremely related to my previous professional experience. The event, which many of you may already know about, is that Venezuela's president was unexpectedly captured by U.S. special forces in a blitz-like operation and then brought to the United States. Today, Monday, US time, it has also entered the courtroom for trial.
This entire incident has had a major impact on the overall Latin American market, as well as on international political dynamics and financial markets. When I was at Franklin Templeton, the market I covered was Latin America. Although I wasn't directly responsible for investments in Venezuela, other markets like Colombia and Chile, which I did cover, are highly relevant. For example, Colombia has also been affected in some ways by this incident, which I'll elaborate on later.
This event was very sudden, occurring on January 3rd, in the early hours of Saturday. The US Special Forces Delta Force launched a surprise raid on Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and his wife.
The operation, codenamed 'Absolute Resolve,' began around 2 AM. The U.S. military carried out airstrikes on many key targets in Caracas, and we can see online that many people posted images of U.S. military helicopters flying at low altitudes.
Shockingly, no resistance was encountered. The Delta Force quickly captured Maduro and his wife, and they were escorted out of the country by helicopter and transport aircraft. We can see that Trump also posted a very famous photo on social media: Maduro blindfolded, holding a bottle of Costco water, and dressed in Nike clothing. This photo spread across all social media platforms.
A brief overview: Why it is eye-catching
Why is it eye-catching? There are a few points. I will first provide a brief overview, as well as our baseline scenario for this situation, and an overall analysis of some tail risks. Afterwards, I will elaborate on specific analyses regarding international politics, US politics, capital markets, and even blockchain, among other aspects.
Overall:
It was not authorized by the United Nations. This unilateral military action represents a significant disruption to the internationally recognized norms, thus causing a major stir.
We can see that there were casualties not only among Venezuelan soldiers but also among civilians. In fact, given the close relationship between Venezuela and Cuba, several Cuban advisors also lost their lives during this operation.
Trump actually prosecuted Maduro on the charge of 'narco-terrorism' during his first term. The main charge for which he is being tried in a US court today is also this one. In the US narrative, this is considered a so-called legal act, but everyone knows that narco-terrorism is just a pretext, and behind it are still factors related to energy and crude oil.
This 'surgical enforcement' was very swift, but most countries are condemning the military action that was carried out without the approval of the UN Security Council. This sets a very, very dangerous precedent. You can imagine that with the ability to take such actions, no national leader is truly safe in an absolute sense.
We can see that most of the US's allies have been careful with their wording and haven't directly criticized. However, we can see that major powers like China and Russia, as well as Latin American countries like Brazil and Mexico, have strongly condemned the US for openly infringing on these nations' sovereignty.
The last time the US took such an action was around 1989 when it invaded Panama. It can be said that since that military operation, this is the most dramatic strong intervention by the US military in Latin America.
So especially now, when the international situation is rather chaotic, this has caused quite a shock. Many regimes have begun to worry: will we be next? The media is talking about Iran — because Iran has also experienced significant domestic turmoil recently.
Including the currently highly sensitive relations between major powers: whether the relationship between the US, China, and Russia will become more strained. Actions at this level go beyond the scope of so-called 'Latin American and American regional news' and constitute a global news event. Although everyone has been talking about the Monroe Doctrine lately — 'America is for Americans' — this incident indeed has international and global implications.
Base Case Scenario: Political Transition Has Begun
Overall, in my view, there is a base case scenario for how the situation is developing.
What we're seeing now is that Venezuela has already entered a political transition process. After Maduro was captured, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez temporarily took control of the capital and received support from the military. Today, we've seen US media reports stating that Rodríguez has started cooperating with Washington.
Interestingly, the US hasn’t directly supported the rise of Venezuela’s current opposition but has instead chosen to cooperate with the current vice president. We can see that the vice president is a so-called technocrat with good execution capabilities, so having her lead a transitional regime is actually quite a reasonable move.
The fundamental shifts I see going forward are: opening up the oil industry and cracking down on drug trafficking. These might be the two most important directions.
Today, we can see in Reuters' report that Chevron’s operations in Venezuela, which had been suspended for a few days, have started to resume. There's a photo of Chevron's oil tanker leaving Venezuela. We can see that the oil sector is experiencing a relatively smooth transition, and it also shows that the current interim government is cooperating relatively well with the United States.
Of course, there is still the threat of further military strikes by the U.S., as this lightning strike was relatively limited, targeting only a few key objectives. Next steps could include lifting the oil export ban, further opening the Venezuelan oil market to more American oil companies, and cooperating with U.S. anti-drug operations, all of which are likely scenarios.
Market Reaction: Betting on 'Contained Risk'
The market reaction also generally reflects this baseline scenario.
For example, oil prices only rose slightly, with Brent crude increasing by about 1.5%-1.6%. The stock market was also not significantly affected, with a slight increase.
Investors’ general assessment is that although Venezuela has very large reserves, production is limited due to industrial capacity constraints and the lack of openness to international oil companies, so its output accounts for only about 1% of the global total, which is very low. With a new government in place and the U.S. easing sanctions, Venezuela’s crude oil supply may increase, which is why oil prices haven’t risen very high.
This also indicates that investors currently view this as a situation of very contained risk: the market likely believes that the U.S. actions will stop here and be confined to Venezuela, not triggering wider conflict. Although many countries have voiced concerns about the U.S.'s next moves, we will discuss this further later.
Tail Risk: Low Probability, But Truly Dangerous
In addition to the baseline risk, there is also a tail risk. Though unlikely, we can imagine some extreme scenarios occurring.
If the situation worsens:
First, if China and Russia take asymmetric retaliatory actions—even if not directly confronting the US military, such as launching cyberattacks, supporting proxy nations to counteract, or using this as an excuse to do similar things to smaller countries elsewhere. For instance, if the US can take action to arrest people, then for those countries we perceive as threats, could we...? For example, what if Putin actually went ahead and captured Zelenskyy? These scenarios are not without probability.
The second and more dangerous scenario involves Iran. If Iran gets dragged into the conflict, its oil production is far higher than Venezuela’s. Located at the heart of the Middle East, Iran is a powder keg ready to explode at any time. If Iran were to join forces with Venezuela to oppose the US at this point, conflicts in the Gulf region could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil transportation routes. The result would not be just a modest 1.5% rise in oil prices but a potential surge, leading to a global energy crisis.
Inflation might skyrocket, severely impacting economic growth. Whether it triggers a global recession is highly possible. If such a black swan event occurs, both global markets and the geopolitical landscape will become extremely volatile.
Therefore, the baseline scenario remains relatively optimistic, calm, and possibly positive for both capital markets and crypto markets. However, tail risks still exist, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely.
Crypto: Geopolitics turning crypto financial infrastructure into a weapon and battlefield
Beyond the macro situation, when discussing the cryptocurrency ecosystem, we see that this incident reflects how geopolitics has turned crypto financial infrastructure into both a weapon and a battlefield.
Why say this? Because Venezuela’s activities in the crypto space over recent years represent an interesting case of strategic play between big and small nations.
Under the longstanding heavy sanctions imposed by the US, the Maduro regime has developed a kind of “crypto survival strategy” within the cryptocurrency realm. For instance, they use Tether’s USDT to bypass US financial sanctions. Reports suggest that starting from 2024, Venezuela may even allow foreign buyers to purchase oil using USDT.
Domestically, we know that Venezuela suffers from extreme inflation, strict import-export controls, and a tightly regulated currency. Many businesses and citizens have adopted cryptocurrencies as everyday transaction tools, using them to buy daily necessities. We see data estimating that by 2025, around 10% of retail transactions will be conducted via cryptocurrencies, while approximately 9% of national remittances flow through crypto channels.
So, amidst the cracks of U.S. financial blockades, cryptocurrency has become a pillar of Venezuela's shadow economy — much like in Argentina and other countries with severe inflation and currency controls: stablecoins have taken on the role of a 'dollar substitute.'
Now, since the U.S. is leading this change, we will see that the crypto economy, which runs parallel to the traditional banking system, will face a severe test.
The U.S. began pushing for stablecoin legislation last year, so-called 'co-opting,' tightening these crypto channels. Through OFAC sanctions and such, they may blacklist more wallet addresses and currency services related to Venezuela.
If you follow the U.S.-compliant stablecoin route, issuers have the right to freeze your address; compliant exchanges are also less likely to touch these funds. Venezuelan-related accounts face significant risks: once found to be linked to the Maduro government or sanctioned entities, they might be locked or frozen. We’ve seen that both Tether and Circle can freeze stablecoin addresses. Exchanges may temporarily ban Venezuelan IP access, even freezing local withdrawals and introducing stricter regulations.
Even the 'petro-cryptocurrency' Petro, issued by the Venezuelan government in 2018, could be more thoroughly delisted or isolated.
This isn't good news for ordinary Venezuelan users. In my previous venture, our design team lead lived in Venezuela and had a strong need to receive salary payments in stablecoins. If merchants and citizens start using stablecoins for payments, would they worry that their USDT becomes 'blacklisted coins,' possibly linked to the government or sanctioned addresses?
Upon the release of this news, there were rumors that local over-the-counter USDT trading immediately saw discounted sell-offs, such as selling USDT at $0.95 — fearing the coins would get locked in wallets. Although this is mostly speculation, it’s enough to indicate the panic.
If everyone rushes to convert potentially 'tainted' stablecoins into other assets, could this lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other cryptocurrencies that don’t depend on centralized issuers and can't be frozen at will? It’s possible.
Thus, in the short term, the use of crypto in Venezuela might decline, but gradually we’ll see a shift: from freezable stablecoins toward more decentralized, non-arbitrarily-freezable mainstream cryptocurrencies.
For other emerging markets, this serves as a warning: in countries like Argentina, Nigeria, and Kenya, people use crypto to hedge against local currency devaluation and financial instability. In the future, they'll be more concerned about whether the U.S. can enforce long-arm jurisdiction to freeze stablecoins and whether exchanges will suspend accounts at any time. They may shift towards more decentralized coins and decentralized exchanges.
Overall, this event has pushed the crypto financial pipeline to the front line of geopolitical games: there could be a larger split in the crypto world – on one side are 'compliant, sanitized' stablecoins, and on the other side is the decentralized, offshore gray area of crypto assets.
Regulations will continue to tighten, closing loopholes that hostile regimes exploit to evade sanctions using crypto. Anti-money laundering and anti-fraud measures will become stricter. Ordinary people are growing more concerned about traditional finance and centralized crypto but may increasingly rely on decentralized assets to protect their wealth.
Geopolitical risks for crypto: a double-edged sword
From the perspective of international order, the impact on crypto is two-sided.
On one hand, amid the atmosphere of 'who’s next,' decentralized, censorship-resistant assets (like Bitcoin) are becoming more attractive. People in high-risk regimes – such as wealthy elites or senior officials – fearing their assets could be frozen by traditional financial systems, might quietly shift their wealth from stablecoins to Bitcoin or privacy coins, moving it out of the banking system altogether.
There are rumors that Venezuela’s top leadership has been accumulating a shadow reserve of Bitcoin in recent years: converting part of its oil revenue into cryptocurrencies for storage. Reports suggest that Maduro’s regime has stockpiled up to 600,000 Bitcoins since 2018 through gold and oil trades, confiscation of mining operations, etc. While this figure is high and remains unverified, it highlights the possibility that Bitcoin could serve as a hidden national treasury. Similarly, sanctioned countries like Russia and Iran are exploring ways to bypass the dollar system using crypto.
From an investment perspective, investors may believe these regions will buy large amounts of BTC/ETH as a hedge, potentially driving up prices. Today’s slight rise in Bitcoin reflects that this line of thinking has gained some traction.
Rising geopolitical risks will boost long-term demand for crypto assets, and the narrative of 'digital gold' will be repeatedly highlighted – especially when the real world feels unsafe.
On the other hand, short-term geopolitical shocks can also hurt the crypto market. When risk-off mode kicks in, investors often sell high-risk assets first. Historically, during sudden conflicts that trigger financial panic, Bitcoin prices have usually crashed alongside equities rather than behaving like gold which tends to rise.
For example, at the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, with soaring oil prices, Bitcoin experienced a major drop. Amid the panic, funds flowed into traditional safe havens like the US dollar, US Treasuries, and gold. The 'digital gold' narrative did not hold up in the early stages of the crisis – at least initially, Bitcoin behaved more like a high-risk 'digital Nasdaq.'
So if the worst-case tail risks we mentioned earlier occur (such as conflict escalation, skyrocketing oil prices, etc.), Bitcoin may fall instead of rise.
Meanwhile, during times of heightened tensions, countries often impose stricter controls on capital flows to prevent capital flight: banning citizens from trading cryptocurrencies, tightening VPN restrictions, and more. As Western countries push forward with stablecoin legislation, they will also be more vigilant against hostile nations using crypto for fundraising or money laundering, freezing addresses at the slightest sign of trouble.
This is not good news for the gradually formalizing crypto industry: compliant exchanges and wallet service providers are forced to enhance monitoring, compliance costs increase, and user experience worsens. The development of the industry will be slowed down.
Overall, when the international order is disrupted, crypto will exhibit a contradictory double-edged sword effect: on the one hand reinforcing the narrative of being a 'safe-haven tool,' while on the other hand giving countries more reasons to weaponize the financial system and tighten control over crypto channels.
Sanctions and Compliance: The US Will 'Plug Loopholes,' Crypto Is a Key Link
This incident highlights the central role of sanctions in US strategy while also exposing vulnerabilities in traditional sanction mechanisms. The US will take this opportunity to address these shortcomings, and the crypto sector, previously relatively overlooked, will come under greater scrutiny.
For a long time, the US has imposed severe economic sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and others, with these regimes trying every means to evade them. Take Venezuela as an example: the Maduro government’s ability to survive largely stems from exploiting loopholes in the sanction system, and cryptocurrency is one of the key gaps.
After Maduro’s arrest, the US will analyze vast amounts of internal intelligence: how he maintained fiscal resources under sanctions. This will drive the US to strengthen crypto-related sanctions.
As expected, they will uncover substantial evidence: how Venezuelan officials or proxies used crypto and stablecoin transactions; how PDVSA bypassed banking supervision using USDT; how brokers helped businesses convert Bolivars into USDT for imports; who the counterparties were and what channels were used. Then the U.S. will close these loopholes one by one.
Going forward, we may see: OFAC’s sanction lists expanding, adding a batch of crypto wallet addresses related to Venezuela, even linking addresses tied to countries like Iran. More wallets will be frozen – especially those belonging to government officials, relevant institutions, and addresses involved in illegal oil trades.
In plugging the loophole, USD stablecoins will become more prominent: The US will pressure stablecoin issuers to implement geo-fencing or targeted freezes, restricting Venezuelan users and offshore accounts, and freezing addresses linked to criminal activities.
Once this happens, large amounts of USDT in the national treasury will be passively affected, causing significant damage. Liquidity of black-market USDT will drop sharply, and the USDT held by ordinary people will split into 'clean' and 'dirty.' Clean coins are those not associated with sanctioned funds; dirty coins will trigger panic, discounted selling, and reduced trading. There may even be a 'two-tier pricing' system: USDT could be sold at a steep discount locally, significantly reducing purchasing power for the public.
This differentiation between 'clean' and 'dirty' may not just stay within stablecoins but will also seep into DeFi and offshore exchanges: Platforms will strengthen geographic and address restrictions, unwilling to serve blacklisted users to avoid trouble with the US.
A more difficult issue arises if DeFi pools mix with funds that have touched sanctioned addresses, turning into 'dead money' that cannot be withdrawn, affecting pool exchange rates and causing headaches for protocol governance. Will DeFi protocols reject certain address collaterals? How to determine connections to sanctioned entities? Should assets be frozen? These all create conflicts between the ideal of 'decentralized governance' and real-world compliance.
Many core teams of DeFi projects, fearing lawsuits, may ultimately compromise with compliance to protect themselves. If major DeFi protocols adopt compliance filters, the DeFi ecosystem might split into 'clean DeFi' and 'underground DeFi': Compliance-focused institutional funds will enter, but privacy and borderless ideals fade; the underground side sticks to anti-censorship principles but may shrink in scale, existing in a 'guerrilla' form.
In any case, for global crypto companies, compliance costs will soar significantly: More resources will be devoted to monitoring on-chain activities and cooperating with investigations. On-chain monitoring and data analytics firms may benefit; small companies won't be able to bear it, and some minor projects will exit. Industry concentration will rise, innovation will slow down, and decentralization ideals will be compromised.
All in all, in terms of compliance and sanctions, this event has a profound impact on the crypto ecosystem. Venezuela, as an example of a sanctions loophole, will see this gap gradually tightened by the US. The crypto space may experience a round of 'purging': cleaning up parts exploited by authoritarian regimes, leading to short-term volatility and liquidity contraction; in the long run, forming a new structure — the clean side integrating more into mainstream finance, while the non-compliant side hides in the gray area. Ordinary users must be cautious: one misstep could lead to frozen assets or restricted transactions.
Unfortunately, against the backdrop of great power rivalry, 'Code is law' must give way: true law still belongs to state power. The crypto world will be reshaped by the heavy hand of the real world.
Energy: Short-term mild, long-term may depress oil prices (base scenario)
Now let’s talk about the elephant in the room: oil and gas. Although Venezuela’s production in recent years accounts for less than 1% of the global total, the regime's drastic change will profoundly affect oil, gas, and even shipping.
In the short term, the market perceives the crisis as minimal: Brent rose slightly by 1.5%, and investors are not overly concerned about supply disruptions. Chevron's oil tanker has left Venezuela, and signs indicate a low risk of oilfield shutdowns or port blockades. Production hasn’t been affected; in fact, many believe that after a regime change, the US might lift sanctions on Venezuelan oil, allowing more companies (American/European) to invest in exploration, extraction, and refining. Increased future supply will prevent oil prices from spiking.
Unless a worse scenario arises: the interim government loses control over remaining forces, leading to a 'scorched earth policy'—blowing up refineries or sabotaging pipelines. Repairing these facilities would take time and materially impact the oil market. Alternatively, military conflict disrupting tanker transport could create a stark contrast to the baseline scenario.
Medium- to long-term baseline: If the transition succeeds, the US partially lifts sanctions, and international oil companies return to invest, production will rise, increasing global supply, which could push oil prices down. However, this is an ideal scenario that requires stability and time (possibly two to three years before effects materialize).
Based on short- and medium- to long-term assessments: oil prices may rise slightly in the short term but decline over the long term, which is favorable for inflation; central banks have more room to ease, benefiting risk assets.
Gold, silver, and volatility: safe-haven buying occurred, but without panic.
Investors’ instinctive reaction to major geopolitical events: one, flocking to gold, silver, and US Treasuries; two, heightened uncertainty pushing up volatility.
This time was no exception: gold saw significant gains while stocks also rose (though not sharply). Both safe-haven and risk assets increased because investors believed the crisis would have limited impact on the global economy, being a localized event that wouldn’t hinder overall risk appetite.
The VIX hasn't surged much and remains in the teens; the crude oil volatility index has also risen moderately. This means: a few are cautious, but most remain relatively optimistic.
Macro view: the baseline remains largely undisturbed; tail risks could deteriorate rapidly.
A systematic review of macro factors: interest rates, dollar strength, emerging market credit risk, and global liquidity.
Macroeconomic backdrop at the beginning of 2026: Central banks have raised interest rates to combat inflation, and now with inflation easing and growth remaining weak, monetary policy is approaching a turning point —— either rates will stay high or start to decline, with the Fed’s rate cuts being an affirmation.
Will events in Latin America change the macroeconomic picture? In the baseline scenario, there is almost no disruption, and it may even be more accommodative: stable situation, cooperation from the new government, smooth transition, relaxed US sanctions, one less uncertainty for the global market, and investor focus returns to fundamentals. This year may welcome a looser monetary environment, in which crypto assets tend to perform better.
However, if tail risks occur (Middle East crisis, oil price spike), the macroeconomic situation deteriorates rapidly: inflation expectations rise, central banks become hawkish again, rate hike expectations return, and global liquidity tightens. Risk aversion pushes up the US dollar and Treasury yields, dealing a major blow to crypto. Emerging markets see soaring spreads, capital flight, local currency depreciation, debt crisis chain reactions, and risk assets fall together.
In summary, the macro impact depends on how the situation evolves.
AI and Energy: Rising priority on energy security will indirectly affect computing power infrastructure.
Finally, let’s discuss a more practical topic: Venezuela is related to energy, and energy is closely tied to AI.
The event itself has no direct relation to the AI industry, but its indirect impact lies in this: if it triggers a broader energy crisis or policy adjustments, countries will reassess energy allocation, affecting investment in AI infrastructure.
First level: Geopolitical conflicts cause energy supply tensions and soaring electricity prices; countries may take extraordinary measures to ensure power for critical sectors; in extreme cases, they might sacrifice high-energy-consuming but non-critical industries to safeguard livelihoods. AI is important, but in extreme situations, it could also become a sacrifice — slightly higher priority than crypto mining, but when real power distribution is needed, both crypto computing power and AI may temporarily give way.
Another perspective: the incident prompts global attention to energy security, forcing countries to invest in energy independence. With Venezuela, the country with the world’s largest reserves, falling under U.S. influence, other nations will reassess from an 'energy security first' perspective while not wanting to fall behind in the AI wave. Thus, a 'have-it-all' situation emerges: both 'drill baby drill' and 'build baby build,' expanding both energy production capacity and computing infrastructure simultaneously.
In the long run, this is actually beneficial for AI: the construction of AI data centers and training are currently bottlenecked by energy supply. The situation highlights energy security concerns, prompting countries to adopt a more strategic review of traditional and renewable energy sources — amidst intensifying US-China AI competition and geopolitical maneuvering, the interplay between AI and energy merits closer observation.
Ending
Today, we quickly analyzed the Venezuela incident from perspectives including international affairs, geopolitics, cryptocurrencies, various financial markets, and even AI and energy. Of course, it’s only the third day since the event unfolded, and more developments will gradually emerge.
The situation is quite complex, especially at sensitive time points. The year has just started, and we are already facing such an 'unbelievable' event.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. If this topic is interesting, we can also do live interviews. Thank you for your attention, and we hope you will enjoy our new format this year.
Okay, see you in the next episode, bye.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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沙丘路的毛圈狮子
Crypto Player
GM of Americas @ OSL
Venture Partner @ Generative Ventures
ex-Franklin Templeton, Adyen, Strike
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