$32 Million Bets on AMD Price Swings; Options Strategies Ahead of Analyst Day

LukeHW joined discussion · Nov 11 03:43

Summary

- IV expects to stay at the current level but softening approaching year end.

- Option strategies based on IV thesis + bullish sentiment from volume signals.

- Big whale betting on large price swing, receiving $32.15 million premium upfront.

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ is hosting its Analyst Day to outline long-term AI and data-center roadmap. Shares of AMD up 4.47% to $243.98 ending last trading session, after last week's drop caused by broader market sell-off. A culmination of events causing caution, including Challenger job cuts concerns, Fed chairman Powell casting doubt on year-end rate cuts, VIX jumping 12.80% in Friday morning session but later falling back to 19.08 at the end of trading.

IV expects to stay on current level but softening approaching year end

Figure 1: AMD volatility chart

Implied Volatility (IV) currently sits at 60.51%, which is higher than 82% of its historical IV values over the last 52 weeks (IV Percentile of 82%). We do see IV hovering around this similar level post its earnings release on Nov 4th and expect IV to stay around this level within this week as Analyst Day coming up.

Further IV outlook until Jan 2026 largely depends on macro sentiment. Government shutdown best guess probably ending mid or late November with hope from Senate newly votes. Tech bubble talk would likely continue to be a hot topic throughout Thanksgiving/Christmas dinner. Billion dollar AI deals have been done, attention has been put into credit markets, Mariah Carey’s voice hovering at the back... All seems like dropping sign for the volatility with heightened caution, but the one biggest "cherry" is the Fed's December rate decision.

Increased call volume to put ratio reflect bullish sentiment for the week.

For contracts expiring on NOV14'25, data from last Friday shows large volumes of OTM calls stretched out at $240, $250, $260 (Figure 2). Comparing to yesterday's session (Figure 3), those calls from Friday have been largely harvested as shares moved closer to in the money. The call volume is about 2.25x the put volume comparing to 1.72x last Friday, showing a bullish sign for the week. Strikes at $250, $260 are still the most active, with call volumes of 41.21k and 36.39k respectively.

Figure 2: Volume distribution for NOV14'25 contracts (ending 11/7/2025 trading session)

Figure 3: Volume distribution for NOV14'25 contracts (ending 11/10/2025 trading session)

Based on IV thesis + bullish sentiment from volume signals

Short cash secured put

What cash secured put is
Selling a put option and simultaneously setting aside enough cash to buy the underlying stock at the strike price if the option is exercised.

For bullish view or looking for increasing positions

Selling cash secured put for 1. income generation where you collect the option premium upfront or 2. Entering a position at a desired price: If the stock’s price falls below the strike price and the put is exercised, you buy the stock at the strike price, effectively obtaining the shares at a discount to the market price. From last week's market sell-off, the shares find their support around the price of 225 --> set the strike slightly below the support to avoid being assigned --> or move the strike higher for buying purpose.

Bull (credit) put spread - as a variation from shorting put

What bull put spread is
- Defined-risk options strategy that aims to profit when the underlying asset stays above a certain level.
- Selling a put option at a higher strike + buying a put option at a lower strike with the same expiration
- Net credit upfront.

For OTM bull put spread, the max loss is always bigger than max profit --> poor risk/reward. However, it gives out some decent income for lowered margin requirement compared to shorting a naked put. In addition, it provides various exit opportunities. See sample Figure 4:

AMD finds its support around the level of $225 during the market sell-off last week --> relatively safe putting around $230.

If share stays above the breakeven range --> OK, profit.

If AMD goes down and breaks $230 level--> close the long 220 put leg, then you have multiple exit plans based on your further thesis, including

--> short more puts on forecasting large sell-offs

Or light dip expecting a rebound --> using the profit received to finance being assigned with $230 put --> maybe next step selling some covered calls.

Figure 4: Sample modeling on bull (credit) put spread

Short Strangle

What short strangle is
- Selling a call at a higher strike + selling a put at a lower strike, with the same expiration.
- Collect two premiums upfront and profit if the price stays between those two strikes until expiration.

Otherwise, the volume chart potentially gives out a favorable range for shorting strangle. Based on sideways-move IV thesis for this week, 82% IVP gives decent premium. The point is, even though the market tends to talk itself out of sell-offs pretty quickly, investors are becoming more cautious when backing those big tech firms when you see VIX, CDS, job cuts... Those words fly around more often now approaching the end of the year.

Figure 5: Sample modeling on shorting strangle

Big whales betting on large price swings

Orders as shown in Figure 6 likely placed by the same trader using a calendar spread.

BOUGHT 18.72K NOV21'25 260CALL + SOLD 18.72K JAN16'26 250CALL

Net credit: $32.15 million.

Figure 6: Unusual activities on multiple calendar spread entries

Shorting a calendar spread usually intends to profit from a big stock price change (see Figure 7). As a play of volatility, usually we would forecast future stock price movement, i.e., future realized historical volatility. --> comparing with current implied volatility, which is market consensus on future expected move --> if forecasted future volatility is bigger than the current implied volatility --> it means, the market did not price the volatility right --> therefore, it is a speculative opportunity to profit from future larger stock movement.

In short conclusion, from the chronological order, the trader expects the short-term price to rise shortly but expecting a pullback months out.