This weekend's focus is on whether the beautiful bill of the special president can finally pass.
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$ In fact, there was already a Bearish situation on Friday; the beautiful bill was surprisingly not passed by the Republican majority in Congress… This bill contains not only tax issues but also the debt ceiling problem of USA.
It seems that the proportion of loyalists is not high enough, but still Bullish about the beautiful bill passing in the end, as these Congress representatives are mostly waiting to sell at a price. This weekend, the special president's staff will be busy working to persuade each one.![]()
This downgrade is different from the one in 2011. At that time, US Treasuries triggered forced selling, and this was the last credit agency among the three major rating agencies to downgrade its rating; the other two had already been at AA+ for a long time. The USA has long been in the AA+ category in the recognized bond market, and this time it simply remained at AA+. This is akin to an Analyst reiterating a Sell rating on a Stock but lowering the Target Price. Deleting the previous post and rewriting it, since I am a knowledge blogger, I won't delve into how the Large Cap moves, this is purely informational. Will this Bearish news really cause panic? The first downgrade was in 2011 and nearly caused a circuit breaker, while the second downgrade was on August 1, 2023, and after the Large Cap dropped by 1.32% on August 2, there were subsequent waves of declines, with a total drop of 200 points over 10 trading days (note that August generally tends to decline, last year in August NVIDIA dropped from 130 to 90). Those who have read my post thinking the Large Cap will pull back to a certain level (which has been deleted) will definitely feel the impact is getting smaller.
But this timing is quite interesting; it feels like the psychological attack is greater than the actual effect. Knowing that the biggest soft spot for the former president is US Treasuries, while he constantly shouts in the wild, "We're done for, the credit rating is going to drop again," Moody's remains steadfast and doesn't downgrade. At the crucial time when the beautiful law needs to pass Congress to raise the debt ceiling and issue new Bonds, Moody's gives the former president a hard slap in the face. There will always be some tricky people trying to harm me...
Additionally, the short seller Burry's Form 13F reflects last quarter's positions, with 49% of the positions in Put options on NVIDIA. However, we do not know if he made a huge profit and exited (consider how much he must have earned in the first quarter) or if he is still involved... Following the Form 13F can be very terrifying. On the Bitcoin front, what happened was that there was news revealing that a large whale made a short position around 100K, and many retail investors chased to short, but as soon as that small downward wave ended, they quickly reversed to go long.![]()
If the reason for shorting is associated with the big short seller Burry, it's hard for small retail investors to say whether they can keep up with him...
Recently, the Volume and Turnover Ratio for the SPX 06/20 09/19 (the June one is very clear, does anyone know what big event is happening in September?) Call are extremely astonishing. Opened and closed, closed and opened.![]()
Attached is last Friday's most surprising set of over 30 billion Call options, close to 4 billion.![]()
(The screenshot doesn't show the full 5920.36, super huge while simultaneously opening Calls) and also 400 million in Call options at the end of the trading day.![]()
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Gold has rebounded to $3,300! It's time to get on board?
🎙️ Discussion: 1. Has it $Gold Futures (AUG5) (GCmain.US)$ rebounded to $3,300? Will the short-term trend continue to rise? 2. What factors
Options Newsman
May 6 20:45
S&P 500's Put/Call Ratio Hits 5-Year Low: Fear Fades and Bottom Near?
休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP : In the late trading session, the trading volume is generally low, and some large short sellers take this opportunity to trigger small sell-offs. Retail investors don't really know what Moody's is, what Institutions are, or what credit ratings are. When they see Bearish news, they immediately run away. It's a fact that the market opened lower on Monday. However, I personally don't feel the need to short the U.S. stock market right now.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
I am quite surprised that everyone is not paying attention to the beautiful big plan. Personally, as a working individual, I have recently distanced myself from Technology stocks, focusing on the value Sector instead, waiting for target levels and target dates to short Technology stocks.
102523569 休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP : Does Xueba think the impact of credit rating is not as significant as the Beautiful Big Plan? With several bad news piling up, no results from the Russia-Ukraine talks, and Federal Reserve officials adopting a hawkish stance, should we expect a drop of 2% on Monday? There has already been pressure from high-position sell-offs.
休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP 102523569 : It's definitely going to open lower on Monday. I didn't say I thought Monday would rise. I actually wrote it earlier. I think this news caused the overall market to drop by 2-3%. But that's all. Note that many people will open a Put on Monday, and now the market has dropped 1% due to this news. I'm just reminding you not to chase the sky and be careful of what's inside. Personally, I'll just keep trying. If my Berkshire falls, I'll wait until the pullback caused by this news is over before buying one (actually, it's a bit surprising because Berkshire has a lot of US bonds but none of the value stock investors have moved, so I probably think this isn't a big deal, just like me). As I said before, watching the big market reach a high point on 6/14. This is not enough for a month, and he will definitely have to pull pullback over and over again. Anyways, I'm just a knowledge blogger, just saying that the truth is that everyone judges for themselves.
Anyways, I open long and short positions in Berkshire value stocks to see continuous losses or confirm that Trump is on the plate. It's a great opportunity for T on Monday and Tuesday, but I'm at work haha.
休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP 102523569 : I am just surprised that everyone is not paying attention to the impact of the Beautiful Act, which is definitely significant, but it has not passed yet. The impact of the bill not passing has not led to a downgrade in ratings, but everyone is ignoring this matter. The impact of the Beautiful Act on the stock market is hard to say, because it includes tax cuts, stimulates Consumer spending, encourages investment, implements Algo quantitative easing, and raises the debt ceiling, which is fundamentally Bullish in principle. However, this also indicates a high probability that the 10% base tariff will become a permanent tariff. Looking at Wall Street's interpretation, I tend to lean towards Bullish overall, and Trump will emphasize the positive aspects.
102523569 休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP : Thank you for sharing.
休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP 102523569 : No problem, what you said is correct, and I completely agree. After Friday's market close, several Bearish factors overlapped (the Russia-Ukraine situation has a relatively low impact on the US stock market but significantly affects the Gold and Precious Metals markets; the Gold bears have been very aggressive). If the beautiful major legislation passes on Monday or Tuesday, it could lead to a reversal, as this is very imminent. President Trump needs to issue new US bonds in early June, which will determine whether he can issue bonds at a lower interest rate. Other Bearish factors have materialized, but this potential Bullish factor has not yet taken shape.
休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP : Value stocks (partial risk hedging): Verizon, Coca Cola, P&G, Walmart, these high dividends are relatively stable and are a necessity for life. And Buffett's Berkshire, who mainly works in this section. I cleared Berkshire the day before the earnings report (don't gamble on the earnings report; I must leave before the earnings report). Close to 500 positions have been reopened, and currently there are only 10 shares. I think if the stock market turns around later, if he falls below 480, then he will dramatically increase his position. Berkshire will be part of my long-term investment profile. Buffett is retired. It doesn't matter; Berkshire's investment philosophy is still there. UNH is also considered a safe-haven stock. 250 seems like it might be a golden pit now, but UNH really has too many black swans, and I really don't want to see him again![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
A value safe-haven stock became the biggest black swan in the stock market this year...
不要追高 : Although I bought puts, I also bought Apple calls. I hate Apple for not moving at all.
Deepseek88 : The question to ask is whether the increase will come to an end and if the bears will rise again.
休假会诈尸的雪宝宝 OP 不要追高 :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
This round is driven by NVIDIA and Tesla. Many have mentioned before why so many people like to watch Apple.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Pulling the Large Cap upwards is not very useful for Apple, but if the Large Cap is going to decline, it is more effective to hold up Apple's stock price. Of course, Apple itself is a value stock, but among the value stocks in Technology, this is basically why I chose to bottom fish Berkshire instead of buying Apple.
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