9 May: Why TSLA surged to $307, closed at $298 and what next?
The rapid ascent of Tesla (TSLA) to $307 on Options Friday appears to be a strategic maneuver by institutional players, likely involving significant call option purchases.
🎯 Institutional Playbook Behind TSLA’s Surge to $307
1. Aggressive Call Option Purchases
On May 9, there was notable 0DTE activity where 35,608 9 May $225 call options were bought at prices ranging from $31.00 to $33.09, with TSLA trading around $290 at the time. This substantial volume suggests that institutions were positioning for a bullish move, anticipating a price increase.
On May 9, there was notable 0DTE activity where 35,608 9 May $225 call options were bought at prices ranging from $31.00 to $33.09, with TSLA trading around $290 at the time. This substantial volume suggests that institutions were positioning for a bullish move, anticipating a price increase.
2. Gamma Squeeze Dynamics
The surge in call option buying likely led market makers to hedge by purchasing TSLA shares, creating upward pressure on the stock price—a phenomenon known as a gamma squeeze. This feedback loop can accelerate price gains, pushing the stock higher rapidly.
The surge in call option buying likely led market makers to hedge by purchasing TSLA shares, creating upward pressure on the stock price—a phenomenon known as a gamma squeeze. This feedback loop can accelerate price gains, pushing the stock higher rapidly.
3. Exploiting Options Expiry Dynamics
By driving the stock price up, institutions could render out-of-the-money put options worthless, benefiting from the decay of these options as they approach expiration. Simultaneously, the increased demand for call options would inflate their premiums, allowing institutions to profit from selling these at elevated prices.
By driving the stock price up, institutions could render out-of-the-money put options worthless, benefiting from the decay of these options as they approach expiration. Simultaneously, the increased demand for call options would inflate their premiums, allowing institutions to profit from selling these at elevated prices.
4. Strategic Profit-Taking
After achieving the desired price level, institutions may have begun unwinding their positions, selling shares at the higher price point and capitalizing on the inflated call option premiums. This selling pressure can contribute to a subsequent decline in the stock price.
After achieving the desired price level, institutions may have begun unwinding their positions, selling shares at the higher price point and capitalizing on the inflated call option premiums. This selling pressure can contribute to a subsequent decline in the stock price.
---
📉 Current Market Snapshot
📉 Current Market Snapshot
---
🧠 Institutional Insight
> “When institutions orchestrate such moves, they often ride the wave up and exit before the tide turns. Recognizing these patterns is crucial for navigating the market's ebbs and flows.”
In summary, the swift rise of TSLA to $307 on Options Friday was likely a calculated move by institutions, leveraging call option dynamics and market maker hedging behaviors to drive the stock price upward, followed by strategic profit-taking.
---
PART 2: COULD IT ALSO BE THAT TSLA WILL PUMP TO $320 NEXT WEEK?
---
🚦 Conditions That Could Support TSLA → $320
1. Continued Institutional Buying
If more large call positions are added Monday or Tuesday (especially May $310–$320 calls), expect MMs to hedge → upward pressure.
Watch for unusual options flow.
2. Market Sentiment Holds
If the overall market remains strong (SPX/NASDAQ stay green), TSLA can ride momentum.
Friday's close held well above key moving averages → a good sign.
3. Macro Silence or Positive Catalysts
No new Trump tariff shocks.
Any EV news or bullish analyst upgrades could act as fuel.
4. $300 Becomes Strong Support
If TSLA consolidates above $300 with volume, next leg up opens.
MFI and VWAP need to stay strong early in the week.
---
⚠️ Caution Signs
If Monday starts with a red flush, it may be a bull trap setup.
MFI divergence or weak volume on up candles → unsustainable move.
If market reverses or yields spike, TSLA may revisit $288 or lower.
---
PART 3: WHAT ABOUT UNUSUAL PUT ACTIVITY ON 9 MAY?
PART 3: WHAT ABOUT UNUSUAL PUT ACTIVITY ON 9 MAY?
---
'When $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ was trading at $302.44, the put option with $180.00 of strike price expiring on May 16th,2025 transacted 22,330 contracts. It ranked first among $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ unusual option trades of the day and reflected $200.97K turnover.'
'When $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ was trading at $302.44, the put option with $180.00 of strike price expiring on May 16th,2025 transacted 22,330 contracts. It ranked first among $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ unusual option trades of the day and reflected $200.97K turnover.'
That unusual put activity (as highlighted in the article) could mean one of two major institutional intentions:
---
1. Hedge Against a Sharp Drop (Protective Puts)
> Institutions may have bought those large puts not to bet on a fall — but to hedge long TSLA positions.
If they’re already long from earlier this week (say around $285–$295), buying puts at Friday’s highs protects gains.
This allows them to keep TSLA elevated while managing downside risk.
Implication:
> TSLA can still go higher while puts quietly protect the downside. This is often a bullish setup in disguise.
---
2. MM Trap or Reversal Signal (Bearish Intent)
> If the puts were speculative and not protective, they might signal MMs preparing for a flush.
Buying large puts near $307 could indicate someone expects TSLA to drop next week (maybe back toward $288–$295).
If price starts fading under $300 with volume, that’s a confirmation of this view.
Implication:
> Big put buyers could be betting on a reversal — or helping trigger one if retail chases long.
---
Final Thought:
From watching unusual options activity, Friday’s close looks like a calculated rise, not an organic rally. If those puts were hedges, bulls can keep climbing. But if they were bait, next week may open with a flush.
If it is TSLA, anything can happen. No point running a TSLA to $320 vs TSLA to $290 with probabilities. The stage for TSLA pushing above $300 has been set. I am interested to see which direction TSLA will continue to run on Monday! Good luck to the bulls!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Here to roll daily.
Happy which way it goes.
Believe in your trades. It is ok to be wrong, it's not ok to stay wrong.
477
Followers
156
Following
1125
Visitors
Follow
溫馨提示 : what next lol check a look Dow futures up 400 points now ( Trumps Thursday told people buy stocks) look like work lol good luck short traders lol
Fortune Cowboy1 : Are you saying that it will drop today.