Pinterest (PINS) ARPU Growth Key To Its Upcoming Earnings

Revenue: Consensus estimates are around $845 million to $846 million. This would represent a year-over-year increase of approximately 14.3%.

Based on 30 analysts from Moomoo app, the consensus estimate for revenue is expected to come in at $846.138 million.

Earnings Per Share (EPS):The consensus forecast for Adjusted EPS is around $-0.02. This indicates an expected improvement compared to the $-0.04 EPS reported in Q1 2024. Some sources may report different EPS consensus figures based on varying methodologies (e.g., GAAP vs. Non-GAAP).

Based on 24 analysts from Moomoo app, the earnings per share (EPS) consensus estimate is expected to come in at a loss of $0.015 per share.

Zacks Earnings ESP:The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) is currently negative (-2.31%), suggesting analysts have recently become slightly more cautious, potentially indicating a lower probability of a positive earnings surprise according to their model.

PINS had a positive earnings call on 06 Feb 2025 which saw its share price declined by 20.01% since.

The earnings call highlighted significant user growth, record revenue achievements, and technological advancements, especially in AI integration and product innovation. However, these were slightly offset by challenges in certain sectors and declining ad prices. Overall, the sentiment is positive due to the transformative growth and strategic initiatives that set the stage for continued success.

During Pinterest's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call, the company announced significant achievements and outlined strategic initiatives for 2025. The platform reached a record high of over 550 million monthly active users (MAUs) globally, with 100 million in the US and Canada (UCAN), and more than doubled its full-year revenue growth rate from 9% in 2023 to 19% in 2024. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $1.154 billion, up 18%, marking the first time Pinterest achieved $1 billion in a single quarter.

The company also reported a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA, exceeding $1 billion for the year. Pinterest emphasized its focus on enhancing user actionability and curation, leveraging AI and its unique taste graph to drive engagement and monetization. Looking ahead, Pinterest plans to invest further in AI-driven personalization, expand its lower funnel advertising tools, and continue leveraging partnerships to diversify revenue, aiming for sustained growth and deeper user engagement.

Revenue:Pinterest management guided for Q1 2025 revenue to be between $837 million and $852 million. This represents 13-15% year-over-year growth (or 15-17% on a constant currency basis, factoring in an expected foreign exchange headwind).

Adjusted EBITDA:The company projected Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $155 million to $170 million.

Pinterest surpassed 550 million MAUs globally and 100 million in UCAN, marking record highs for user engagement.

Metric:Monthly Active Users (MAUs), especially international growth (e.g., Europe, Latin America).

Recent Trend:Global Monthly Active Users (MAUs) reached a record high of 553 million, up 11% year-over-year. Analysts acknowledge Pinterest's strong user growth and potential for increased monetization, especially through partnerships (like Amazon, Google) and improved ad tools.

Metric:Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), particularly in under-monetized regions like Europe.

Recent Trend:Areas of focus include the pace of Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth, particularly outside the US/Canada, and managing operating expenses.

Full-year revenue growth rate more than doubled from 2023, with a significant 19% growth in 2024.

Achieved over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, a roughly 50% increase year-over-year. For the first time, Pinterest achieved a $1 billion revenue quarter, with Q4 2024 revenue up 18%.

Metric:Advertising revenue growth and margin improvement (e.g., EBITDA, net income).

Recent Trend:Pinterest reported its first billion-dollar revenue quarter ($1.154 billion, +18% YoY), beating revenue expectations. However, Adjusted EPS ($0.56) missed analyst estimates (around $0.64).

Long-term forecasts generally predict continued revenue growth but potentially slower or declining earnings growth rates in the coming years.

Integrated AI into user experiences, resulting in a 250 basis points lift in saves and a 150 basis points lift in outbound clicks.

Focus Areas:Shopping features (e.g., product tagging, partnerships like Amazon Ads), AI-driven recommendations, and video content (Idea Pins).

Introduced Performance Plus, significantly improving advertiser campaign setup and efficiency. Increased infrastructure spend related to user and engagement growth impacted cost of revenue.

Competition:Pressure from TikTok, Instagram Reels, and Google/Meta’s ad dominance. Despite the EPS miss, the stock surged over 19% the day after the announcement, buoyed by the strong revenue, user growth, and positive Q1 guidance. However, the stock price has declined significantly since that post-earnings rally.

Ad pricing declined 18% year-over-year due to an increase in ad impressions growth and downward pressure on global platform pricing.

Ad Spend:Economic conditions impacting advertiser budgets (e.g., recession risks). The food and beverage subsector of CPG experienced softness, partially offsetting revenue growth.

Regulation:Data privacy changes (e.g., iOS updates, EU regulations).

Pinterest allocated $100 million towards share repurchases in Q4, bringing the total for 2024 to $600 million.

Based on 31 analysts from Moomoo app offering 12 month price targets for Pinterest in the last 3 months. The average price target is $40.79 with a high forecast of $55.00 and a low forecast of $27.00. The average price target represents a 52.44% change from the last price of $26.87.

We could see PINS share price moving towards the higher end if there is accelerated international ARPU growth, successful shopping integrations, and AI-driven engagement boost MAUs and margins.

But we need to watch out for the impact of the tariffs turmoil which could caused PINS share price to move to the lower end if there is stagnant user growth, ad revenue pressure from competitors, and macroeconomic headwinds.

We can see that investors are still concerned of whether PINS can meet its earnings guidance expectations especially with the ongoing tariffs risk, if PINS could powered up on its international ARPU growth then we might see investors coming back.

At the current share price trading, we are seeing bears is in control and PINS bulls have issues clearing the 26-EMA level, and RSI is showing weak momentum or rather stagnant movement, so this might be a case of investors waiting to see how the tariffs negotiations played out whether any positive outcome could benefit PINS.

I would see PINS adjusting their 2025 guidance up if the tariffs reversal still to show signs of success.

There was increased short interest about two weeks ago, which investors might plan to take profits as the tariffs turmoil intensifies. But that has decreased, which mean that investors might be waiting to see how PINS quarterly earnings report would be showing.

We need to remember that there are also analysts who are showing caution in case of a lower probability of a positive earnings surprise according to their model.

Expectations are for solid year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, roughly in line with the company's guidance, and an improvement in EPS compared to the prior year. The market will be looking closely at user metrics, ARPU trends across regions, and any updates to the full-year outlook when Pinterest reports on May 8th.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think PINS could show an improved ARPU growth in both domestic and international regions.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.