Broadcom sinks despite earnings beat: Is the AI story fading?
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ Today, there is hope to touch the key level of 100, which is a psychological level for people. Once touched, it will create enormous pressure. Many will have orders set at this significant 100 level to take profits or break even. Additionally, $100 is also the position of the 50-day EMA. If it breaks through and holds, the trend could completely reverse. Furthermore, if it holds above 100, it will break through the high of 97.91 from the rare large bullish candlestick on April 9 since the tariff war began, thus forming a new round of higher highs and higher lows. This could potentially initiate a reversal trend. Triple evidence proves that the position of 100 is indeed critical. Once it breaks and holds, AMD will totally reverse the downward trend that has occurred since October 2024, when it fell from $172 (of course, whether this reversal can persist depends on the performance after the Earnings Reports; the most important thing is whether the Large Cap stabilizes and whether there is a serious pullback). A month ago, around March 24, I predicted that AMD below $100 would lead to a downfall because that was my conclusion after AMD consolidated at the bottom for three weeks. However, who would have thought that the tariff trade war initiated by Trump would crash the Large Cap and AMD stocks together; this was definitely an unexpected black swan event! The key point is that if it manages to break and hold above $100 today, it will trigger buy signals from Algo Institutions (refer to earlier arguments on why 100 is so important) as well as a rush of retail investors buying, which will further push the stock price oscillating upward amid active Bids and short covering. Before the Earnings Reports, if the market is good, there is a chance it could reach $103 by the eve of the May 6 Earnings Reports, thus filling the first gap since the trade war on April 3. This demand isn’t unreasonable; NVDA, which has shared a similar fate, hopes to fill its gap at 110.42 today, showing that NVDA is clearly recovering faster. The specific next movement will depend on the performance of the Earnings Reports. If the performance is slightly poor, there may be a pullback. Unless the Earnings Reports are terrible, a continued decline is possible. Next week's Earnings Reports have a betting cap of 110 or 115 on Friday (currently, 110 seems more realistic; the specific situation will depend on tomorrow's Friday closing price performance. I will provide further updates tomorrow). The 115 level is quite critical because many are trapped above it. The pressure could also be very substantial. Let’s wait and see how the upcoming performance unfolds.
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