Ask Me Anything: How to read and trade company earnings reports (with examples)
Hello everyone,
I'm Nerdbull, I have been trading for more than five years actively, I use technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Trading earnings have always been one of my strategies, but I only picked stocks with quality and potential earnings surprise to trade.
With Q1 earnings season ongoing, I'm here to answer any questions you might have about reading the earnings reports during this period. Feel free to reach out in this post's comment section!
I'm Nerdbull, I have been trading for more than five years actively, I use technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Trading earnings have always been one of my strategies, but I only picked stocks with quality and potential earnings surprise to trade.
With Q1 earnings season ongoing, I'm here to answer any questions you might have about reading the earnings reports during this period. Feel free to reach out in this post's comment section!
⭐ Before diving in, let's explore key earnings season resources available on moomoo.
Check moomoo's Earnings Calendar for key report dates (add to your calendar!), and explore the Earnings Hub (Markets > US Earnings) for essential financial insights.
Check moomoo's Earnings Calendar for key report dates (add to your calendar!), and explore the Earnings Hub (Markets > US Earnings) for essential financial insights.
⭐ How to read earnings reports like a PRO
If you have been following my post on the earnings, you would notice that I use fundamental analysis and past earnings to deduce how the upcoming earnings would look like, it is important to understand the guidance provided by the company.
If you have been following my post on the earnings, you would notice that I use fundamental analysis and past earnings to deduce how the upcoming earnings would look like, it is important to understand the guidance provided by the company.
Statistics have shown Company earnings guidance significantly influences post-earnings performance, primarily by shaping investor expectations and influencing stock prices. Positive guidance, indicating strong prospects, can attract investors and boost stock prices, while negative guidance may lead to selloffs and lower stock prices.
Market Uncertainty
Guidance can increase or decrease market uncertainty, which can affect stock prices. For example, overly optimistic guidance may lead to disappointment if actual results fall short, while overly cautious guidance might miss the opportunity to capitalize on positive developments.
Guidance can increase or decrease market uncertainty, which can affect stock prices. For example, overly optimistic guidance may lead to disappointment if actual results fall short, while overly cautious guidance might miss the opportunity to capitalize on positive developments.
•Short-Term vs. Long-Term Focus:
While guidance can influence short-term stock price movements, it's important to consider its potential impact on long-term business decisions
While guidance can influence short-term stock price movements, it's important to consider its potential impact on long-term business decisions
•Inaccurate Guidance:
It's worth noting that earnings guidance is not always accurate, and sometimes companies may manipulate guidance to influence investor sentiment.
It's worth noting that earnings guidance is not always accurate, and sometimes companies may manipulate guidance to influence investor sentiment.
⭐ Let's break down TSLA's latest earnings report together
Now let me share an analysis of Tesla's (TSLA) latest earnings report (Q1 2025, released April 22, 2025), focusing on guidance, fundamental performance, and technical analysis of the stock.
Now let me share an analysis of Tesla's (TSLA) latest earnings report (Q1 2025, released April 22, 2025), focusing on guidance, fundamental performance, and technical analysis of the stock.
1. Guidance Analysis
Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings call and shareholder letter placed a strong emphasis on future potential, particularly in autonomy and new products, while notably deferring specific near-term financial guidance.
• New Models & Production:
Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings call and shareholder letter placed a strong emphasis on future potential, particularly in autonomy and new products, while notably deferring specific near-term financial guidance.
• New Models & Production:
o Affordable Vehicles: Plans for new models, including more affordable vehicles, remain on track for starting production in the first half of 2025. Details suggest these might be simplified versions to enhance affordability.
o Robotaxi (Cybercab): The purpose-built Robotaxi, potentially named "Cybercab," is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026. A pilot program is planned for launch in Austin, Texas, in June 2025.
o Production Methods: Tesla indicated progress on its "unboxed" manufacturing process, stating it would be visible "on tests and roads in the coming months."
• Autonomy (FSD & Robotaxi):
o CEO Elon Musk projected "millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously" by the second half of 2025.
o He expects selling fully autonomous rides via the Robotaxi service to begin in Austin in June 2025.
o Musk predicted autonomy would materially impact Tesla's bottom line around mid-2026 and expressed extreme confidence in Tesla's lead, suggesting potential for "99% market share or something ridiculous" in robotaxis unless competitors rapidly deploy fleets.
• Optimus Robot: Development continues, with Musk reiterating plans to produce 5,000 Optimus units in 2025, ramping up production towards year-end. He envisions producing 1 million units annually by 2029. Musk noted potential tariff impacts on Optimus production due to components sourced from China.
• Financial Guidance Deferred: Tesla explicitly stated it would not provide updated full-year 2025 guidance (e.g., for deliveries or margins) in the Q1 report. This decision was attributed to uncertainties surrounding "rapidly evolving trade policy" (tariffs) and "changing political sentiment" impacting consumer demand. Guidance will be revisited in the Q2 2025 earnings report
• CEO Focus: Musk announced he would significantly reduce his time allocation to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) starting in May 2025, signaling a renewed primary focus on Tesla. He reiterated his belief that strong execution, particularly in autonomy and robotics, could make Tesla the "most valuable company in the world by far."
2. Fundamental Performance (Q1 2025 Results)
Tesla's Q1 2025 financial results significantly missed analyst expectations and showed considerable year-over-year declines in its core automotive business.
• Revenue & Earnings:
Tesla's Q1 2025 financial results significantly missed analyst expectations and showed considerable year-over-year declines in its core automotive business.
• Revenue & Earnings:
o Total Revenue: $19.34 billion, down 9% YoY (Missed estimates of ~$21.3-$21.8B).
o Automotive Revenue: $13.97 billion, a steep 20% decline YoY.
o Adjusted EPS: $0.27, down 40% YoY (Missed estimates of ~$0.41-$0.43).
o GAAP Net Income: $409 million, down 71% YoY. Tesla sold $595 million in regulatory credits; without these, the company would have posted a net loss for the quarter.
• Deliveries & Production:
o Deliveries: 336,681 vehicles, down 13% YoY and 32% QoQ (Missed estimates ~390k). This was the lowest quarterly figure since Q2 2022. Model 3/Y accounted for 323,800 deliveries.
o Production: 362,615 vehicles, down 16% YoY.
o Reasons Cited: Tesla attributed the delivery slump partly to production line upgrades for the refreshed Model Y occurring simultaneously across multiple factories, lower average selling prices (ASP), and increased sales incentives. Macroeconomic factors and potentially brand image concerns related to Musk's political involvement were also cited by analysts.
•Profitability:
o GAAP Gross Margin: 16.3% (down 1.1 ppt YoY, flat QoQ).
o Operating Margin: Plunged to 2.1% (down from 5.5% in Q1 2024 and 6.2% in Q4 2024). The decrease was driven by lower ASPs, reduced volume, and higher operating expenses related to AI and R&D, partially offset by lower raw material costs and SG&A control.
• Energy Division: This segment was a bright spot.
o Revenue: $2.73 billion, up 67% YoY.
o Deployments: Record 10.4 GWh of energy storage deployed, up 154% YoY.
o Caveat: Tesla warned this business is more exposed to potential negative impacts from tariffs.
• Cash Flow & Position:
o Free Cash Flow: Remained positive at $0.66 - $0.7 billion.
o Cash Holdings: Cash, cash equivalents, and investments stood at a healthy $37 billion, slightly up from the previous quarter
3. Technical Analysis (As of late April 2025)
Despite the weak fundamental results, Tesla's stock experienced a significant rally following the earnings release.
Despite the weak fundamental results, Tesla's stock experienced a significant rally following the earnings release.
Recent Price Action: TSLA shares surged sharply after the Q1 report, gaining nearly 10% on April 23rd and another ~10% on April 25th, closing around $284.95. This marked the stock's best weekly performance (+18%) since November 2024.
If we look closely at the technical analysis using RSI and EMA (Exponential Moving Average), we can see that the bulls are taking the control back.
On the Friday session (25 April) we saw that Tesla was up 10% because of some deregulations as to the rollout of the Robo taxis in the United States.
On the Friday session (25 April) we saw that Tesla was up 10% because of some deregulations as to the rollout of the Robo taxis in the United States.
So this is why the understanding of Tesla guidance is important, there was never any fear of Tesla not being able to do the Robo taxis in the U.S. but just easing rules on end of May on to Tesla right now tesla up 10% on the Friday session overall full self-driving calls by the industry by regulation by the department of transportation.
This has definitely helped the stock as you can see that their earnings were not good, basically there is a contrasting that the short-term negatives are counterbalanced by the long-term positives but one must believe in the FSD and the robotics and the AI narrative for Tesla.
From the guidance, one can actually sense it when Tesla CEO Musk commit to refocus on Tesla and now with the easing of the rules of US regulations for FSD, we could be seeing Musk playing a much more significant role in pushing FSD, not only for Tesla but the entire automotive industry in U.S. and beyond.
• Drivers of Rally: The positive reaction seemed driven by:
o Optimistic forward-looking guidance on autonomy (FSD, Robotaxi) and affordable models.
o Musk's stated commitment to refocusing on Tesla.
o Potential loosening of US regulations for autonomous vehicles announced shortly after the earnings call.
o Broader market optimism and relief regarding potential tariff impacts.
• Key Technical Levels & Trends:
o Breakout: The stock broke above short-term resistance around $263, which now may act as support. It also broke the ceiling of a falling trend channel visible on medium-term charts.
o Critical Resistance: TSLA is now testing the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), estimated to be around $288-$289. A decisive and sustained close above this level is often seen by technical analysts as confirmation of a potential trend reversal to bullish.
o Previous Trend (Pre-Rally): Before the earnings report, analysis showed TSLA trading below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a bearish trend. Support was identified near $230-$240, and resistance was near $262 and the 200-day SMA.
o Volatility: The stock remains highly volatile. Before the recent rally, it was down approximately 37-38% year-to-date in 2025.
So if you wanted to trade Tesla, you might want to wait for a confirmation of Tesla clearing the 200-day period, but for now, I see that bulls are back in control, we should be seeing a bullish reversal soon as RSI momentum is picking up to the upside.
Summary
Tesla's Q1 2025 was fundamentally weak, characterized by significant misses on revenue and earnings, declining deliveries, and sharply compressed operating margins, primarily due to challenges in the core automotive business.
Tesla's Q1 2025 was fundamentally weak, characterized by significant misses on revenue and earnings, declining deliveries, and sharply compressed operating margins, primarily due to challenges in the core automotive business.
However, the company successfully shifted investor focus towards future growth drivers, particularly its ambitious timelines for affordable EVs, Robotaxis, FSD advancements, and the Optimus robot, alongside Elon Musk recommitting his focus to the company.
This forward-looking narrative, coupled with external factors like potential regulatory easing, fueled a strong post-earnings stock rally.
Key challenges remain, including navigating tariff impacts (especially for the energy business), managing profitability amidst price pressure and competition, executing complex production ramps for new models and technologies (like the unboxed process and Optimus), and rebuilding investor confidence after a period of significant stock decline.
The stock's technical picture has improved significantly in the short term, breaking near-term resistance, but faces a major test at the 200-day moving average to confirm a potential longer-term bullish reversal.
After going through the content above, I hope everyone has gained some new insights into interpreting earnings reports. So let's move on to our AMA section.
⭐ What you can ask me
Feel free to ask anything about earnings. Make sure your questions are precise. The following are some examples.
– Not so great 🤔 "Could you teach me how to read Earnings Reports?"
– Much better 😊 "Hi! I'm currently going through X company's earnings report. Could you please explain what these figures or this paragraph mean? How should we understand and interpret them?"
⭐ AMA session
April 28 - May 15th. Leave your questions in the comments. I will try to select as many questions to answer during this time.
💬 Don't forget to like this post or leave a comment to let me know if you're enjoying this AMA!
Feel free to ask anything about earnings. Make sure your questions are precise. The following are some examples.
– Not so great 🤔 "Could you teach me how to read Earnings Reports?"
– Much better 😊 "Hi! I'm currently going through X company's earnings report. Could you please explain what these figures or this paragraph mean? How should we understand and interpret them?"
⭐ AMA session
April 28 - May 15th. Leave your questions in the comments. I will try to select as many questions to answer during this time.
💬 Don't forget to like this post or leave a comment to let me know if you're enjoying this AMA!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Singh Rahul : The 200-day MA test is huge for TSLA’s chart. But if Musk’s ‘recommitment’ is just talk, won’t competition (BYD, VW) crush their margins before EVs get cheap enough? Curious what metrics you’d track for a legit turnaround.
frankinglily : Betting on a pullback if Q2 guidance whiffs—agree or nah?
Echophi : I’m holding shares but sweating the tariff risks.
nerdbull1669 OP Singh Rahul : Thank you for your comment, people who purchase Tesla over BYD and other EVs, does not really concerned with the price, it would be more on what Tesla can offer in terms of the FSD, this is one key metrics which I will be watching closely, Tesla is working on it, keeping promise, not dropping the ball, so if the FSD regulation goes through, them that would be Tesla competitive advantage. BYD is also facing pricing strategy challenges, there is a certain level where EVs price cannot go any cheaper. Hope this helps to answer your queries.
nerdbull1669 OP frankinglily : Thank you for your comment, I agree but how much would be the pullback, if Tesla manage to gain more market share with the FSD, we need to consider how Tesla could turn around really quick with their advantage.
nerdbull1669 OP Echophi : Thank you for your comment, I think Tesla could still have runway, as there are other markets for Tesla cars which could still help its sales. Hope this helps to reduce the tariff risks.
103210488 : Thank you very much for your sincere analysis. First, Bullish on Tesla's self-driving (FSD and Siasun Robot&Automation taxi business), which will become a leader in AI applications; second, believe that Musk's return will accelerate the implementation of Tesla's core business.
74657329 : Thank you How do you look at this 1q
74724661 : The next key step is whether Tesla can increase sales in the next six months. Given the current uncertainty surrounding Trump's Global tariffs, investment in this Stocks should be reduced! The fluctuations of 200 to 250 per share are not worth jumping in too early! Other Stocks can be diversified at the same price to reduce risk and pressure.
JS Lim : Tesla growth has stunted. It is only "hoping " things to "turn out for the best". This is not planning. This is wishful thinking.
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