The Daily: Trade deals in sight, Tesla surges. Why focus long term
• US markets: US markets rally overnight, along with BTC moving back over US$90k. Did you know if you invested $50,000 after the Nasdaq 100 crashed in 2002, you’d be sitting on $1.12 million today?
• Aussie markets: Watch China facing stocks as White House could be near a trade deal with China. Iron ore rises 6% in 8 days.
• Stocks to watch: Tesla, Fortescue Metals
From YouTube
Markets charge, the rally is back. For now
The backdrop for Australia’s trading session looks positive. US stocks are rallying, bitcoin moved back over US$91,000, the market’s fear gauge has fallen from fresh highs, and the S&P 500 ETF $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ is rising 2.2% in post-market trading. So why has the narrative shifted to positive for now? Good question. I’ll answer it. Well, it’s for three key reasons.
Firstly, there’s hope the White House will seal deals with top economic partners. Not only did US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hint that a China deal is possible, while JD Vance also cited progress toward a trade pact with Japan and India.
Secondly, US company earnings so far have been better than expected. 18% of the S&P500 reported results so far, and results have better than expected result.
Thirdly, Trump said he wouldn’t fire Powell, while some Fed speakers suggested that the US may need to cut rates. So political tension is dying down.
Remember that fortune favours the brave
So where are we now. Well US tech stocks are still down 17% from their record highs. The Aussie market is still 9% from its February record high. Despite all the noise, we need to remember after every market crash or major pull back, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the ASX 200 have recovered. Tech stocks have often fallen the hardest but seen the strongest rallies on the way back up.
So consider: the Nasdaq 100 crashed 83% in 2002, it crashed 53% in 2008, crashed 34% in 2018, and crashed 30% in 2020.. But after every crash, stocks rebounded to new record all-time highs. If you invested $10k in 2002, you’d have $227k today. Or if you invested $50,000 after the Nasdaq 100 crashed in 2002, you’d be sitting on $1.12 million today. There is a lot to be said about “time in the market beats timing the market,” as Jack Bogle said.
Tesla turns higher as Musk assures shareholders
As for companies to watch, Tesla shares are up 4% after markets. For three reasons.
Firstly, not only because the White House could make a deal with China (which could benefit Tesla, given 21% of revenue is from China).
But secondly, Musk plans to spend less time at DOGE from next month—maybe 1–2 days a week. That will reassure some Tesla investors who had been nervous about the amount of time he was spending on other projects.
And Tesla should be on your radar thirdly because Tesla's longer term outlook paints a big turnaround story.
Yes Tesla posted a poor quarterly result. Revenue was 9.5% weaker than expected and dropped from US$25.71B to US$19.33B. EPS was also a major miss, missing expectations by 38%, falling to just $0.169. But there was a bright spot, Tesla’s gross margin rose more than expected to 16.31%, a small win amid the pain.
Despite the weak quarter, Elon Musk urged investors to focus on Tesla’s future: mass autonomous vehicles and its humanoid robot, Optimus. He’s targeting 1 million robots a year by 2029 or 2030. On the call, Musk said Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by far—and possibly worth more than the next five most valuable companies combined. Musk said:
"I’d encourage people to look beyond the bumps and potholes of the road immediately ahead of us and lift your gaze to the bright shining citadel on a hill – some Reagan-esque imagery – and that’s where we’re headed.”
Tesla’s autonomous vehicle and robot businesses should start to make a meaningful difference to the company’s bottom line in the second half of next year—and then go exponential, Musk said.
Estimates also suggest revenue growth will be 20%, with revenue of US$129.5 billion in 2026, and earnings growth of 17% in the same year.
As for other companies to watch keep an eye on Fortescue.
Why? Well the sea borne iron ore price is up 6% in eight days and that could continue if a China deal is made. Consider $Fortescue Ltd (FMG.AU)$ makes most of its money (90%) from China.
Commodities
As at 10.10am AEST, the gold price was US$3343.60 per ounce, down 2.2%. Crude oil was at US$64.26 per barrel, up 0.93%. Iron ore was at US$99, up 0.4%, per tonne.
Cryptocurrencies
As at 9.17am AEST, Bitcoin was valued at US$93,476, up 0.75%, and Ethereum at US$1751, up 0.34%.
What’s ahead
• US companies to report today include IBM, Philip Morris, AT&T and Boeing. In Australia, Woodside, Insignia and Paladin are among those reporting quarterly results. With CGN Power and New Oriental among those reporting in Hong Kong.
• Economic news out today include S&P’s purchasing managers’ data from Australia and several speeches from US Federal Reserve officials.
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Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Jessica Amir
Moomoo Official Market Strategist
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Seen/heard on Fox News Business, ABC, SBS, Reuters wires.
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Amidst the uncertain outlook of the trade war and escalating concerns about an economic recession, gold prices have repeatedly reached new highs this year, at one point surpassing $3,500 per ounce. This marks an almost 30% increase since the beginning of the year. For investors in U.S. equities, investing in gold mining stocks represents a significant opportunity to ride this wave. Amidst the uncertain outlook of the trade war and escalating concerns about an economic recession, gold prices have repeatedly reached new highs this year, at one point surpassing $3,500 per ounce. This marks an almost 30% increase since the beginning of the year. For investors in U.S. equities, investing in gold mining stocks represents a significant opportunity to ride this wave.
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Gold pullback! Another opportunity?
🎙️Discussion 1. With $Gold Futures (JUN5) (GCmain.US)$ pulling back from record highs and many institutions upping their price forecasts, w
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151453268 witso : what happened overnight AU jess
Mack_2848 : literally shit happened , all was said that it's possible deescalate with China in the near future wtf does that even mean.But nobody even had a conversation? ridiculous. The market just looking for an excuse to rally.
151453268 witso : yeah mack i hope so it may get us thru, disregard my comment Jess thought i was having a nightmare woke up to zeros on a reverse stock split for one of my heavier commitments but all has been revealed carry on
ZnWC : Reading information (about Tesla) released by the extreme leftist democrats can be dangerous for retail investors. It is always good to have a balanced view.
Balanced Review: Tesla Q1 2025 earnings and other updates
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