“Haru no Arashi” will peak out and test for return!

　Well, the stock market has been stormy these past few weeks. It's a “spring storm” unique to this season. The Nikkei Stock Average was sold to a high price of 40,087 yen (Zalaba basis) on March 22, and instantaneously to a low of 36,733 yen on 4/19. The decline is 4354 yen, and the rate of decline is 10.6%.

　In fact, the TSE Growth 250 Index was hit by a sharp drop of 20.1%. In addition to individual investors' closeout sales, margin transactions (purchases) occurred, and it seems that there was a throw (disposal sale).

　However, the general market price hit an immediate low on 4/19. Data such as a negative skyline (7.1%) with the 25-day moving average and a half price push in the rise since the beginning of the year showed that it had entered the oversold zone. Nonetheless, I think returns will be limited.

　 Again, the rate of decline in the Japanese market was huge during this sharp decline. There seems to have been a handpicked sale from a foreigner. In addition to thinking that there would be a sharp upward reaction in the Japanese market, they may have worried about the risk of yen appreciation conversion.

　Geopolitical risks (situation in the Middle East) and the postponement of interest rate cuts by the FRB were negative materials on a global scale. Nevertheless, the Japanese market reacted more strongly.

　Of course, the medium- to long-term uptrend has not changed. No matter how strong the market price is, price range adjustments and daily pattern adjustments of this level are common. What is essential is whether or not the uptrend has broken down (confirmation of that). Corporate performance is strong, and dividends are increasing one after another.

　Incidentally, the profit per share (based on forecast) of the Nikkei Stock Average is 2,296 yen, which is an increase of 12.1% compared to actual results. On a TOPIX basis, profit for the fiscal year ending 2024/3 is expected to increase 16%, and profit for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 is expected to increase 8%. The growth rate is declining, but the usual pattern is that predictions for the next fiscal year are cautious. Don't worry about it.

　The ratings (investment decisions) of major securities are bullish (buy them all). The target value is 2900 yen for SBI Securities, 3000 yen for Goldman Sachs, and 2800 yen for Nomura Securities. Once you get out of the 1650 yen zone, which is the milestone in terms of the chart, the next goal is to increase the 2000 yen mark.