[The timing of interest rate cuts is ●●!] July FOMC summary

The July FOMC has come to an end. Here's a summary of the key points!

＜Roughly speaking＞
✅ Interest rate hike of 0.25% as expected
✅ Since it is as predicted by the market, there are no major movements in stock prices
→It was as predicted in advance, so there was no major movement. It's reassuring to be able to pass through without any problems.
Also, the view on the current state of the economy was generally positive.


＜Statement by Chairman Powell＞

✅ Prices and labor market trends are trending as expected
✅ Inflation is slowing down (but I want to keep an eye on it)
✅ There is a possibility that a soft landing can be made without becoming a recession
✅ Interest rate cuts will be carried out at the timing determined to be appropriate. I'm not thinking about the end of the year.
✅ It is estimated that it will take until around 2025 for the inflation rate to return to 2% (an appropriate value)
→Basically, just follow the details of the previous meeting

It was like this, and there was a sense of security because “the results are as expected” and “inflation is improving.”

The stock price felt like ↓, and it was about moving in small increments.

The point I'm worried about in the future is whether there will be an interest rate hike next time or not.

It says “it depends on the data” about this.

As for the inflation situation, housing costs etc. are still high.

If you look at the yellow line below, it's still high, isn't it?

As for other prices, they are falling, and a decline in prices can be seen.

Therefore, the following economic indicators should be checked in the future.

・CPI
・PCE deflator


If these fall further, interest rate hikes may be postponed in the future.

Also, as for the timing of interest rate cuts, it was said that “we will do it at the right timing” and “we are not thinking about the end of the year,” so

We should probably look at 2025 and later.

In that case, the full-scale rise in stock prices is likely to be after '24.

I would like to continue to follow them in the future.