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Tesla: How would you deal with the tanking stock price?
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How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ is scheduled to release their Q2 earnings on 19 Jul after market close. I believe some of us who have been following TSLA earnings would notice that its share price tank after the last earnings report released in April 19.
The Q1 2023 earnings TSLA EPS meet the forecast, nothing less or more. So how would the earnings report be looked at differently this time.
In this article I shall examine how TSLA share price have moved during its earning report release and how it has been trading during technical analysis both in the past earnings (Q1) and the upcoming latest one (Q2).
TSLA Earnings Data
The EPS forecast this time is only 0.79 as compared to 0.85 in the last quarter, does this mean that market is expecting TSLA revenue to drop and its expenditure to increase.
How will its pricing strategy help TSLA? I will be looking for these insights during the earnings call.
How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)
TSLA Earnings History
Based on what we have seen, TSLA Q1 earnings EPS match the forecast of 0.85, and price drop when that happen.
But why is that so? EPS is considered positive as it matches. I shall share more in later section using technical analysis.
How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)
TSLA Price Change
As we can see, there was a more than 9% drop in price 1 days after the earnings release. If we look closely at the pattern of how TSLA price move during its earnings release.
In Jan, there was a more than 10% increase instead, I will try to use Technical Analysis to see why this might have happen.
How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)
TSLA Investors Sentiment and Holdings
Investors are very positive for TSLA and their holdings have increased in both last 7 days and last 30 days. This would mean that investors still have confidence in TSLA despite its price drop after the last earnings report.
How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)
How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)
Technical Analysis - Average Directional Index (ADX)
As mentioned above, if we look at the ADX for the last earnings on 19 April 23, it is actually at 25, and -DI is above +DI, this would indicate a bearish downward trend.
But currently TSLA ADX is slightly above 40 and this indicate a strong trend and +DI is above -DI suggest that it is on a bullish upward movement.
Hence, I believe we might be seeing a much better trade for TSLA. I will share my target price at the Summary section.
How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)
Technical Analysis - Parabolic SAR
Similar to what we saw in ADX for the last earnings report in April, SAR show TSLA went through a bearish reversal and bring its price down.
Something worth noting is TSLA went through a bearish and bullish reversal near end of June. Currently it is on a bullish reversal upward trend.
But we do need to take note of any surprises that might come from its earnings on 19 Jul 23. I would expect the earnings to be better if their pricing strategy have worked well.
How I Look At Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Release (19 Jul Post)
Summary
From the investors sentiment, TSLA should do positively well but we do need to consider the competition in the EV space that TSLA is facing.
China EVs demand seem to have gear towards their domestic brands. What I would be looking for in TSLA earnings report is its pricing strategy, this is important because as TSLA come up with new model, are they going to do the same?
Based on what I have observed in Technical Analysis, TSLA price might not be trending downwards similar to what happen to when Q1 earnings was released.
ADX and SAR is showing that TSLA price is currently strong and in a bullish upward trend.
My target entry price would between $285 to $286, expect it to trend a bit downwards on 19 Jul trading. I would not trade if the price goes below $275.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think TSLA EPS would beat forecast by wide margin and will TSLA continue its bullish trend after its Q2 earning?
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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