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Tech confronts reality: Are US tech stocks still overvalued?
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Soft US CPI = Hot Tech Stocks. What's next? Plus Nasdaq 100 rebalance

If you read our weekly outlook this week, and thought US CPI was going to be soft. Well done. Chances are you might be patting yourself on the back if you invested.
Just look at the QQQ fly.
Is the joy ride over....what's next?
Soft US CPI = Hot Tech Stocks. What's next? Plus Nasdaq 100 rebalance

The US futures are suggesting the US market will have a positive day of trade on Thursday, after US stocks surged on Wednesday, with the S&P500 closing at its highest level in a year after a cooler-than-expected June inflation read (consumer price index report), showed the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, could have the ability to go lightly with rate hikes, and even, perhaps maybe take their foot off the gas, with interest rates hikes. And ultimately, help the US economy avoid a recession.
I think the Fed will have to come out of the woods soon, and reduce its 'higher for longer' interest rate narrative.
Right now, the market is pricing in the Fed Reserve will keep US interest rates as they are, when they meet later this month. And the market is also expecting a rate cut in September.
For investors in tech, high growth and high PE stocks, that will be music to thier ears. Why? Well remember the market is forward looking. So a companies future earnings power would typically increase if interest rates drop.
So for now, over the medium to longer term, the narrative seems; soft CPI = hot Tech stocks, right?
Well sure. But, earnings drives share price growth...
1 - At the moment, we need to see what happens with US earnings season (as we wrote on Monday). Tech companies are expected to deliver some of the strongest earnings growth numbers this quarter. or their shares as a sector, to fundamentally continue to rise, we'd need to see earnings growing, more than expected.
2 - Plus, we will need to see the Fed keep rates on hold. And then the good times may likely continue to tech, high growth and high price-to-earnings stocks, theoretically over the medium term.
3 - But beware, if you are trading or investing for a shorter-term horizon, remember your portfolio may be susceptible to market surprises.

What about the Nasdaq-100 Index Special Rebalance?
- Well, expect some bumps (volatility) It will occur before July 24. It means the biggest stocks in the Nasdaq 100, such as the biggest US stocks, will likely see more volatility before and after that data, as not only is the index redistributed to weights, to address over concentration. But investment managers and some ETF providers will then adjust their portfolios or ETFs accordingly.
- So keep the biggest US stocks on your radar as they will be likely taking a trim... $Apple(AAPL.US)$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$ $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ and $Meta Platforms(META.US)$ (sorted by market cap).
- And watch ETFs that track the Nasdaq 100, such as the $BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF(NDQ.AU)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$.
- To read more the Nasdaq-100 Index Special Rebalance, click here or read the methodology.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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