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CPI inflation rate slides to 3% in June: Will it ease Fed's fears?
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Softer CPI - Reawaken the bull?

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JP_mykayaplus joined discussion · Jul 12, 2023 10:24
Softer CPI - Reawaken the bull?
The story about inflation has evolved multiple times ever since we are spooked by it.
When it was too high, markets tank
When it is reduced less than expectations, markets tank.
These days, if it rises by a bit and less than expected, the markets rally.
This time is no different than the past few months.
1. All is good?
Don't get me wrong, it is good to see softer CPI growths. It's just the market reaction that is funny as it is too forward-looking.
Lower CPI growth than expected means higher interest rates are working their magic to bring down inflation. The work continues to be in progress.
The expectation is of course, that the Feds will try to be more dovish in the interest hikes.
2. The hidden aspects of this soft CPI
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
However, this descending CPI comes with its caveats.
If food and energy are taken out of the equation, overall inflation is still 4.8% from a year ago and 0.2% on a monthly basis.
It is still high.
So based on this, the Feds might not be too eager to pause or even reduce the sky-high interest rates.
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  • moomooZeski : USA Mooerz, don't kid yourself the down-tick in inflation % is just a smokescreen. 'Bidenomics' will prevail ultimately, creating the HIGHEST inflation rate in history! haha Is it possible to gaslight inflation numbers?? 🤥

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