Iron Ore and A-share Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report
Overall
Total global iron ore shipments have declined somewhat. Currently in the earnings season, iron ore supply will gradually increase.
Iron ore production is still high, supporting iron ore prices.
US non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations last week, and the US economy is at the crossroads of zero growth and recession. Currently, the market generally believes that interest rates will be raised by 25 bps in July, and there may be a possibility of interest rate hikes in the future.
On the supply side
Australia and Pakistan shipped a total of 29.44 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons over the previous week, of which Australia shipped 20.59 million tons, an increase of 2.42 million tons over the previous week, of which 17.32 million tons were shipped to China, an increase of 1.85 million tons; Brazil shipped 8.84 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons over the previous month, of which 2.9 million tons were shipped to China, a decrease of 2.05 million tons.
There is a port overhaul in Australia this week, and subsequent shipments may decline. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF(03047.HK$
Demand side
The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.48%, up 0.39% from last week, up 5.95% year on year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 92.11%, up 0.13% month on month, up 6.41% year on year; steel mill profit rate was 63.64%, down 0.43% month on month, up 46.76% year on year.
The average daily iron and water production was 2.468,200 tons, down 0.06 million tons from the previous month, and an increase of 159,800 tons over the previous year.
In terms of inventory
Imported iron ore stocks in 45 ports across the country were 126.39 million tons, down 1.03 million tons from the previous month; the average daily dredging volume of 3.13 million tons increased by 50,000 tons.
Arrivals are expected to continue to increase slightly.
A-share Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report
Weekly A-share report for this week:
Currently, the market is entering an important data and policy observation window. Economic and financial data for June and the second quarter will be released in the next week, which may further strengthen the market's expectations for macroeconomic policy support. We recommend continuing to pay attention to policy orientation and implementation in the future, especially the Politburo meeting that may be held in late July. If the follow-up policy is properly handled, there is no need to be pessimistic about the market's mid-term outlook. We will maintain a neutral and positive view of the A-share market in the second half of the year, taking into account marginal changes in policy expectations. Industry advice: Short-term growth is the main line, and consumption is measured in the medium term. During the interim reporting period, focus on individual stocks whose performance may exceed expectations and fall short of expectations. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: 1) In line with new technology, new industries, and new trends, especially technological growth tracks such as artificial intelligence and digital economy, the semiconductor industry chain is expected to have opportunities for cycle reversal and technological resonance in the second half of the year; the software side continues to focus on artificial intelligence, which is expected to take the lead in empowering the industry, such as office software. 2) Areas with high performance flexibility due to improved demand or improved supply patterns such as inventory and production capacity, such as liquor, white goods, jewelry, power grid equipment, and marine equipment. 3) In areas with high dividend rates and high-quality cash flow, undervalued central enterprises still have room for repair. $Kweichow Moutai(600519.SH$ $Gree Electric Appliances,Inc.of Zhuhai(000651.SZ$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report
We expect core CPI to rise 0.22% (consensus 0.3%) in June, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.93% (consensus 5.0%). We expect the overall CPI to rise 0.25% (consensus 0.3%) in June, which will reduce the same ratio to 3.08% (consensus 3.1%).
We've highlighted three key component-level trends we expect to see in this month's report. First, we expect used car prices to drop 1.2% and new car prices to drop by 0.2% in June, reflecting the decline in used car auction prices and the continued increase in promotional incentives for car dealers. Second, we expect remaining seasonal factors to put pressure on the travel category this month (we expect hotel and public transport prices to drop 2%), as CPI seasonality may be overfitting the rebound in prices after the pandemic lockdown. Third, as the gap between new leases and continuing lease rents continues to narrow, we expect housing inflation to ease somewhat (we expect rents and OER to rise 0.47%).
Looking ahead, we expect the average core CPI inflation rate to remain within 0.2-0.3% in the next few months, reflecting a continued slowdown in housing inflation, falling used car prices, and a slowdown in non-housing service inflation as labor demand continues to slow. We expect the core CPI inflation rate to be 3.8% year-on-year in December 2023 and 3.0% in December 2024.
June CPI preview: core inflation slows
We expect core CPI to rise 0.22% (consensus 0.3%) in June, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.93% (consensus 5.0%). We expect the overall CPI to rise 0.25% (consensus is 0.3%) in June, reflecting rising food and energy prices. This would reduce the year-over-year growth rate to 3.08% (3.1% consensus).
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3047 is a team specializing in the research of commodities and smart beta. We like to exchange investment strategies.
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