UPDATE July 2, an Update to my Jan 8 post

THIS WILL BE AN UPDATE TO MY Jan 8 POST:

This is the follow-up post to my Jan 8 post. Hopefully, this will cover what is happening, what is yet to come, and why. This is a big picture outlook. I expect this to occur over the next 7 years. This will not happen overnight (although there will be some crazy swings as what is happening works its way through the market). The Jan 8 post was long, I expect this to be long also. I have been working on it off and on for months. i have been sick, my time is limited, and my energy is gone. I barely even garden, what terrible timing. I hope this goes well. Buckle up and enjoy the ride. Here we go.

There is so much to go over to do it properly it would fill a book. So here is iam's notes version.

                   I know... 🤣

If you follow the dot plot, and I'm sure you don't. The dot plot is where voting members of the Federal Reserve Board see the FED fund rates in the future (the rate at which the Federal Reserve lends to banks and banks lend to other banks).

When you deposit money in a bank, they use that money to make loans 🤣 (yeah right, they invest that money, thats why they've been failing, its called investment capital, and when the capital for that investment dries up, or the value of their asset drops then the bank is left with a negative balance)... The government requires a certain percentage of that to be held in reserve so the bank can be solvent 🤣 do you see how stupid this all is and why it's guaranteed to fail, or succeed, if your goal is central control... The rate that the reserve earns is set by the fed funds rate...

Why would a bank hold onto a cash reserve just in case you want to withdraw some of your money? They don't. They loan it to another bank that needs to pay for withdrawals. They are paid interest on that loan. But what about when they need to pay for withdrawls? what does that bank do??? That's right, it goes and takes a loan from another bank. You see, the money is never there. It's just a series of loans. So if a bank gets trapped paying more interest than the money they loaned out and a large amount of withdrawls are made (a bank run), then congratulations, that bank is now insolvent. All it takes is no other bank or the FED to lend to you.

Those who didn't know they were playing a game of chess just got Checkmated. Old money hates new money. That's why the banks that have failed and will fail will all be new money banks, and they are being devoured by old money banks. ICE Cube said it best

🎵 "I couldn't stop you from getting ganked, now, Lets play, big bank take little bank." 🎵

   back to the dot plot.

On the March 2023 dot plot the FED forecasted 1 more rate hike (below). The dot shows where each voting member of the FED sees the FED fund rates in the future.

June 2023.  Forecasted 2 more rate hikes. Notice the dots moving up ever so slightly (votes for higher rates). Votes for 2.25% have all based now at 2.5% for long-term rates 🙄 with the near term rates over 5.5%, previously forecasted at 5% (thus the 2 more rate hikes 😉). The FED members all talk about higher for longer, and i will explain why that is important later*. I believe rates get as high as 7.5%.

But what does the FED fund rate have to do with stocks?

Good question, I'm getting there. But first we must talk about 2 more things so I can try and bring this all together  🙌

The quick answer to that question is simple; it doesn't.

One of my charts worth a reshare: (and I love my quote🤣)

"The recession will kill stocks. said the poorest man ever" 🤔

9 recessions, only 1 negative, with an average return of about 18%

the second topic i need to talk about

I'm assuming we all know what inflation is. Now let me dispell any rumors or bad information you are getting about inflation (especially if it's from a government entity). Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. In simple terms, the more a government devalues its currency, the higher inflation goes.

Notice "all paths lead to inflation"

Currently, that is printing more money. In the past, governments would use cheaper metals in their coins . In some societies, the final "coin" would be a fraction or 0% of the original 100% precious metal. We have done that also. It's just hardly anyone uses cash or change anymore, so no one notices.

above are Roman coins. They devalued from 40% silver to less than 5% in 30 years. The US went from nearly 90% to 0% overnight on July 23 1965. (see my Jan 8 post to find out how and why, Because there was 1 man trying to stop it!)

here's a little excerpt about Rome:

sound familiar? and it's funny, "experts" tell people this path is a good thing. Makes you wonder what their "expertise" is in, because it's not history. And this is why

history repeating. Through the Looking Glass. The US is too far gone to be saved. It . It must be "reset."

The message from Santayana in The Life of Reason, 1905, from the series Great Ideas of Western Man was - while there is no progress without change, not all change is progress. Which is the state we now find our society. Change for the sake of change. It's actually "change at the expense of the people for the benefit of business"

It's really easy to explain. The more money in the system, the higher the cost of goods climbs.

If anyone truly wanted to stop inflation, just turn off the money printer..... But then;

1.) Governments wouldn't be able to promise ridiculous things to stupid gullible voters.

2.) The business war machine that runs this earth wouldn't get fed. (I will touch on this later when I discuss energy) and I'm going to add a funny quote I heard recently  that's too true not to share -

"There are 3 branches of government; Blackrock, Raytheon, and Big Pharma."         Truer words have never been spoken.

But the government has always printed money and inflation was never a problem.... 🙄

Well covid fixed that. 80% of all money that exists was printed since covid. Funny, that's when the inflation really started 🤷

On top of that, the US had been the major exporter of 1 thing for 50+ years... Yep - INFLATION....

We exported our problem into other countries. We kept the cost of goods cheap here by exploiting developing countries' labor and resources. This gutted our industry and middle class (done by businesses for profits, with the help of both political parties, and the result was that the stock market took off, the rich got richer, and for most, the American dream died). They are trying to do it again, but fewer countries are taking the bait. No one wants their economy or trade tied to the dollar. The price of assets goes up as money is pumped into the system. When you print money, the price of all assets rise (currently happening), and your buying power goes down (did you get a 10% raise last year? are you getting a 6% raise this year?), you could waste more money and "invest," but most investors and investments have not returned 15% since last year. On top of that, if you hold unfixed debt (credit cards, some loans), you are losing even more as your wage does not keep up with interest rates.

Now, i feel I must delve into the worst outcome of inflation. HYPERINFLATION

Hyperinflation is the result of printing money to pay your debt. An example would be using a credit card to make your house payment. Now you have twice the debt and still don't own the asset you're paying for. Bad idea, don't do it. In the case of the FED and the government, that happens when the government prints the same amount of money to pay just the interest on the national debt. They are "borrowing" from the future to only pay interest now. Nothing is created, nothing is bought, nothing is owned, but EVERYTHING is owed. This is when they inflate the amount of money in the system but nothing is created, the money doesn't go to anything or anyone (we'll that's not true, it goes to pay interest to those that loaned the money, ie banks, not you or I, see how the big banks always win?  WHY DO WE KEEP BAILING THEM OUT!!¿!!!???). What is the result of HYPERINFLATION on the individual?

iam, that makes no sense?...   

   Let me explain it this way, during inflation your money losses value, but you are paid the same amount so you can no longer afford to live the way you did, you must make cuts and sacrifice (the stage happening now). but during hyperinflation, the value of money drops so fast that you never know what any price will be, so you are left to barter for goods. This means your work is WORTHLESS. You have NO value other than those things that you OWN! and if you're paying on it, it's not yours! you can't barter with it. It is someone else's to barter with, and they will take it from you so that they have something to barter. 

But that won't happen?

And that also leads to wild swings 😳

There have been 3 major periods of inflation in America. The 1917 post WW1 inflation (the one that created Hitler, another story for another time perhaps), the 70s, and now. Here is a chart of the S&P vs. Inflation, there is no real direct correlation. But I see that during the 70s & 90s (the most similar to now because of the housing deficit, read on), when inflation fell, the stocks took off.

So far we have gone over the FED, Rates and Inflation.

Now, let's talk about the third thing and probably the most important because it is the driver of INFLATION, FED policy, and Culture.

I will go over the generations, but essentially, the baby boomers are dying off. There was a population "drought," but now there is a larger demographic entering their "money acquiring ages," and the businesses want to ensure they get that money. This happened in the 60s to the boomers, the businesses did the same strategy with the "hippie culture." they influenced an entire generation to be sheep. Peace, Love, Dope... well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad 🤣... Anyways here's the big topic...

Let's start with The Baby Boomers. They arose from the conquering of Germany and Japan, who were overcoming their battles with hyperinflation and the resulting popularism that it created... The poulation felt "safe" and the work necessary to rebuild from the war created jobs. What do you do when you have a job and safety? You start families. The soldiers returning from war had jobs and were now having children. 76 million of them. 76 million babies that became adults in the 70s. What do adults do? They spend money. They get jobs, they get married, they buy cars and houses and furniture. They have kids, they buy clothes and toys and pay for doctor visits and dentists and food and.... You get the idea. 76 million people who now have money, but there weren't enough goods at that time for the number of people... Why am I talking about the 70s?

Because it's all happening again. The largest population is now in their prime spending years (22-32). What is the number one thing someone with a job, money and just starting a family wants? A home 🏡.  What is there a shortage of? Houses.

All of that to get to Houses?   Yep.

Get that. They

CAN   NOT   COME   DOWN !!!!

It would create a run on the banks... For loans. Loans require money to lend. Banks don't have money to lend...

If the FED were to lower rates, the lack of housing inventory would cause Housing prices to soar. That is INFLATIONARY.

Let me explain that chart above. 🤔  See 2008? notice how there were more houses than people. This creates STUPID MONEY. Banks will lend to anyone because they need to sell the houses. They were literally forcing people into houses. I knew some investment bankers at that time and all their investment were housing. It was stupid money. And the inevitable happened. Stupid money gets taken from stupid people. * I will clarify. I don't necessarily think the people buying were stupid. I think they were naive and gullible, making them easy to take advantage of. To quote the great Benitio:

BTW, this is also how i feel about most "investors/traders"

here is another chart

Here are the home builders 👷‍♂️ this is an ETF of the home building companies like

This is the Monthly chart, Look at the Housing Inventory chart above. This is the inverse of that. Here is where they differ; The Inventory chart has bottomed and is moving back up. So, shouldn't that mean that home builders have peaked? I don't believe so. Home building has increased and will continue to increase. This should rise until Homes = Population Need. That is a multi-year run.

A construction equipment manufacturer, specializing in asphalt, specifically paving machines. Gotta pave new roads to all those new housing communities.

Are you understanding what is happening? The FED will continue to print money. Why?   C'mon, you got this. This is all done on credit. Credit needs a lender. lenders need a bank 🙄 Banks need to get money to lend, but people are pulling their money from banks, so lending is getting tight. The system needs new money. The FED is acting as the back door lender, supplying liquidity to the banks, and has been since the banking crisis. This is inflationary.

But iam, why is inflation coming down?... 

Is it? food, specifically meat, is not coming down. Home prices definitely are not coming down....  What is coming down? oil 🛢 and NatGas 🔥.  Energy is a (the) major driver (a driver, not the cause) of inflation. Energy is where the inflation has dropped... For now.

This should turn around by the end of summer.

Does anyone wanna bet against ending the year over 18?

If commodity and energy prices are going to increase, and we know the FED is adding liquidity into the system. How will inflation come down? 🤔 ...

by INNOVATION 💡

STAY STRAPPED IN, this is where the roller coaster gets crazy.

There is a reason that "advanced" societies are committing short-term suicide to go "green," and it has absolutely NOTHING to do with climate change. All the climate fear mongering is a hoax. Notice i said fear mongering. *Climate change itself is not a hoax. the thought we can control it with money is a hoax. The world is not going to end, sea level is not going to rise to any significant level. (if it were why do all the rich still live in the Hamptons on the coast at 6' above sea level).  The FEAR is meant for you to let business do what they want, have you pay for it, and be willing to suffer while the transition happens. Can you see why they need to lie? if they were honest about what is happening, people would resist... Now there were some statements in there that need to be explained.

Electric energy is cheap to run. The infrastructure and parts are more expensive, but the end result is cheap, nearly 5 times cheaper.

Still thinking as a business - With all this new cheap energy (that the businesses get and taxpayers funded) guess what else becomes far cheaper to operate? Yes, Computers and Machinery!

Can you see where this is going? Am I clear on why this is deflationary? if not maybe the next segment will help.

Sure most people will lose their jobs (deflationary) being replaced by computers and machines. But now your iPhone can be produced cheaply here in america without the additional cost of human labor and massive savings in shipping (deflationary)

There is a new disruptor in the system.   Yes, and it has happened before.

I remember calculators and rotary phones, I remember AOL, the .com bubble, I've gone from carrying a TV with 6 grown men to hanging one twice as large on a wall with the help of 1 friend. Half of the things I used to have to do are now done absent mindedly by a computer.    Great, right?...

The only trade-off is YOU. Your privacy, your thoughts, your actions, and soon your choices. All this was willingly given away by you, with user agreements,  without even looking...

OK, back to the disruptors. EVs and the birth of an eco green electric society.... And all it will cost is everything... like most things, good ideas brought about naturally are life altering and amazing. Those pushed through with reckless abandon by governments, businesses, and bankers are always life shattering and horrific. This is because it FORCES MOST, that's right MOST, of the population to "fall in line", "go with or go without" will become a popular rallying cry of the minority view (who are backed by businesses, bankers and governments and therefore own the press that most get their (mis)information from)....

This has nothing to do with credit, or M2 or anything else. It's just rates that coincide (history really is amazing) with a new technology (but iam, EVs aren't new... wait for it) - TAKING OVER. The personal computer wasn't "new" when it took over in 95'. They spent 10 years (Apple 1984) developing the product, perfecting it, and then *Bam!*

Government Funding. Suddenly, every department needed windows to run. Every school needed a computer lab. Every hospital had to digitize. It happened nearly overnight, and the markets ERUPTED 🌋. Auto is not the only sector. That's why the markets are behaving the way that they are.

Bio-technolology, in Healthcare. Healthcare, in general.

Are there any doctors out there? (besides Dr. Pot 🤣). The doctor profession is going away in the upcoming years. Yes, no more doctors (there will still be surgeons and nurses to "man" the hospitals, but you will be diagnosed and referred by an AI computer). Doctors will be replaced by a ring on your finger or a watch or bracelet on your wrist. This is the real reason that universities are no longer ranking medical students. It doesn't matter, the profession is going away. It's also the real reason for student loan bailouts. Most of those professions are going away before their student debt could be repaid. Has anyone been to a doctor lately? I haven't had a decent Dr since 2008 (and I've had the best insurance and access * i was on a hospital board for a short time). Doctors have already become robots. All they do is enter information and let the computer spit out a drug. How is that not replaced by a watch that can even tell when a woman's prime ovulation cycle is?...

I already discussed the governments "unlimited money" (BTW, it's your money they're spending and what do you get?). Now, let's discuss the INFORMATION part. We've spent the last 20 or so years willingly handing over information (even private information) with the user agreements. Now all that information has VALUE, but you no longer own it 🤣 wha wha wha 😶‍🌫️.

All the information gathered over the last 20 years now gets plugged into a computer and - tada - you have been reduced to a series of 1's and 0's that can now mimic and predict you, they represent you and soon will be you.

I chose to use the doctor profession as an example to shock you. but all service, middle and upper management and diagnoses professions will go away. Industrial manufacturing will go completely robotic, and with it, so will management. Nearly every profession will be wiped out or greatly reduced. Who needs a person to make a reservation? write a book? write a screenplay? teach a class? Run a diagnosis (of anything)? design a new building or bridge? Operate a farm? all the information is in a computer. And now that computer can mimmick and assume nearly all the human functions. The user just needs to tell it what they want.

There is a reason the screen writers are striking. They need job protection. If anyone was smart, they would all strike unilaterally because the only professions that are safe are the ones that require labor. That's why we have an open border. The jobs we need are unskilled labor (I worked construction for 20+ years, there is no skilled labor anymore, we all left 🤔 and it may sound like it, but that is not a joke). Unskilled labor is cheap (deflationary).

To sum it all up;

Governments are going to spend your money to pay for businesses to streamline their workforce (that means fire people and replace them with robotics). They also get an all new energy makeover to reduce their costs.

And all that does is leave the citizenry dependent on the transition "go along, or go without." .... This is the future, and it's happening now. This is how these valuations make sense. Imagine if Apple came out tomorrow and said they reduced cost by 50%. That's what they have done. You just don't know it yet. But the board does.

Let's take a look at my favorite AI play. TESLA... But Tesla is a car company?

TESLA IS AN INFORMATION COMPANY!!!! It is THE auto and Power information company. And what did I just say about information?

It is AI, and it is full autonomous vehicles. The "other" car companies will go bye-bye. By the time the other car companies figure out what is happening, the laws and uses for vehicles will be completely changed. There will no longer be need for competition. because private ownership will be discouraged. We will become a fully autonomous society. You can get from point A to B without a human at any level. The ability to travel will be restricted to the elite, so where do you need to go anyways??? That's the end game for what is happening. The wealthy get their playground, and you get left in the dark. If you don't believe me, you're not paying attention.

This is not a joke. The WEF represents the majority of the world's money. And what money wants, money gets. Now, why would you ever be happy with no privacy or possessions?... The answer is easy. Ignorance. They will keep you dumb and in the dark. You won't know they have their playground back, because you won't see it. The "news" won't show the rich eating steak on a beach in the Hamptons. It will show death, suffering, and despair all to make you afraid. When you're afraid, you panic and trade any freedom you have for perceived safety..... All of this will line up with the new CBDC, and if you don't know what that is, it's the final stage for a dystopian society (Central Bank Digital Currency)

That's the future. To get there, there will be wars, diseases, starvation, and massive suffering and death on a level never seen before. (larger population, larger destruction). Get Ready. Prepare yourself and your family.

That is where we are going. All of this new direction requires massive infrastructure change. Infrastructure change requires materials. What has kept inflation low? Lower commodity prices. That is going to change.

This will end the markets bullish run. Inflation is about to be shown as getting out of hand. By the end of summer is my guess. There is nothing the FED can or will do about it. It will run out of control, and rates will go up. I have 7.5% as my fib rate target. Food, energy, and hard goods will resume an increase in price once again. This will crush the market. And I mean crush. Everything will be reset. Think the dot.com bubble. Everything was upgraded and given a trade value of their future. Then they collapsed and didn't achieve that price for over 18 years. The cost to get there had to be priced in. winners and losers were proven over time, and eventually, after 10 years, the money found the winners of the dot.com bubble.

1.) Governments Funding.    ✔️

2.) Investment Capital. ✔️

3.) Collaterized loans, the higher the stock value, the higher the loan value.

Money is flowing into AI and Robotics. When they get the capital they need valuations will fall. When valuations fall, the funding stage has ended and the CONSTRUCTION phase begins.

What iam saying is that when this rally ends, and it will, probably by the end of summer, the commodities super cycle begins 🤑

I still hold some of the original runners (PANW, TSLA).

iam buying the stocks set to run in the rotation (INTC, HON, DE, VZ, RMBS, FSLR, PENN, *Small Caps Russell 2000).

iam adding commodities (UEC, UUUU, DNN, CLF, SLB, OIH, FCX, GDX, RIG, IPI, NatGas & Physical Metals) & Bitcoin

I will go over some stocks iam currently in for this leg of the AI ROBOTICS bull run (this may, and I believe it will, reach new market highs this summer if not this month).

The shift is happening, from the big AI push to the lower level AI and Robotics companies with room to the upside left to run.

Why did i choose to hold these? Ready for some stupid evaluations? Yep, massive upside, that's why I held. The price targets seem stupid, but for tesla it is still lower than their all time high minus the split, that would be around 722. Palo Alto is making new all time highs accounting for the split. It will continue.

Are you understanding my post???? it's playing out, you just need to fit the pieces together.

A long look at Intel.

Speaking of massive government funding! Who do you think is setting up the infrastructure for the governments AI and energy conversion!!!!!!!

and check out this article, look at all those Billions being thrown around. and LOOK what it's for!!!!!! Still don't believe my post predictions?

250 near term 286 at full extension.

I buy Deere, It's not cheap anymore, but I still buy and add and accumulate and roll and take profits. 😅 it's a lot, but trading is not a hobby. it's an art 🎨 That only the great make look good.

AI Farming! The Future.

notice that headline (.gov) Who has the "unlimited" money to do this???? Is it coming together for you? Can you fit the pieces together???

450 near term, 510 target. They just recieved an upgrade with a price target of 530. Someone is sharing what I know.

Money, Chips, AI

I think this is turning around, but it may drift a bit still before a full reversal and upward push. or not 🤷

Different time frames, near identical charts. Like the other commodities this is a MASSIVE, MASSIVE MULTI-YEAR BULL RUN in the making. 

Chant with me, 400, 400, 400! pound the drums 🛢

THE Oil Servicer!

Ocean Drillers, can't drill in the US, means more ocean drilling. See how "clean" we are? we just force business elsewhere, business doesn't stop, it moves.

Looking for it to double, 14-17.

Just starting to turn around

Target of 160.

Target of 240. Yes 240. 😳

Because Nucor is in wave 3, I believe CLF has made the bottom of wave 2. That would mean we should expect a rapid upwards rise from here to start wave 3.

I believe Nucor to be in its wave 3 of the sequence that began at 25.25 in 2008.

I don't know if the miners have bottomed yet. i believe gold and silver have more downside, but we will see.

The Metals

in 4 price ranges within the bitcoin "realm". I buy them all.

iam a bitcoin believer. Do i think it was created by the CIA? yeah probably, but that should be more reason to own it. It will go over 100k. What will the stocks do? Who knows, but I'm betting they ride up along with the underlying bitcoin.

Yes stupid price targets, 85 to 136. Guess who loaded 2025 calls before the breakout?

Why not make new highs???

This looks like it wants new highs

Breakout with a target of 230.

I expect a shift from the overweighted Nasdaq stocks into the Dow and Russell stocks. Because the Russell is full of bio-pharma companies, I am playing the LABU. The LABU is a 3X leverage of XBI. The DOW stocks I'm in I have already mentioned (HON, VZ, INTC).

That was a lot. That took a lot out of me. I have a chat group on moomoo. or you can ask questions should you have any. I will do my best to answer any.

Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise

and as always

Good Luck

A little story to close. I shared this with the group. Maybe it was a post, i can't remember, they all run together.

I knew some guys that started an AI firm in the late 90s (during the dot.com boom).... Yeah, they were thinking about it back then. That's how I knew this day was coming, I've always known.... Anyways they were obsessed with C-3PO. I was an R2-D2 fan myself. So I inquired about why C-3PO. The response stuck with me. C-3PO was the goal for AI. It was a TRANSLATOR. It could take any language and produce a result. They couldn't teach it "information" that is fed to it. They could teach it language. Once AI understands language the output is easy. It just needs to be able to understand what's being asked.