Ochikura
I completely dropped my positions last week. Mainly because almost all of the technology stocks in hand have reached the pre-set take-profit/stop-loss point, positions must be drastically reduced or directly liquidated.
Currently, there are still three technology stocks in hand that have not reached the stop loss level: $Amazon(AMZN.US$ with $Unity Software(U.US$ with $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$ . Amazon was inexplicably overrun by the market. When it comes to AI, I think this is very funny, but I've made money; this is enough. I think of Unity as an afterthought. I only realized the opportunity the day after Apple's press conference, and immediately rushed up the market. There was a slight increase or decrease last week. Currently, it is about break-even. If it falls again, it will stop losing money and leave the market. TSMC bought it early. Although it sold a little bit at a high price, it still gave back quite a bit of profit, so let's keep watching.
Stocks that have been drastically reduced or liquidated include $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ ， $Tesla(TSLA.US$ As well as speculative purchases $Palo Alto Networks(PANW.US$ with $SoFi Technologies(SOFI.US$ . Panw actually didn't break through; it's just that the executives sold it themselves, so I sold it along. Sofi has risen too fast. I quickly learned about profits. There aren't many positions. Having fun is inherently speculative; it's not going to last long.
There's also a clearance $Costco(COST.US$ , this is simply because I want to go to the bottom $Target(TGT.US$ Because costs are rising too slowly, I'm a little impatient; I'm not bearish on costs.
Having sold so many, I always have to buy something. Except for heavy warehousing $Target(TGT.US$ (Currently the largest position), the second-largest position $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund(XLV.US$ . Previously xlv and $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU.US$ I bought half of each, then XLU broke down, and I dropped all of them directly to xlv. Today, xlv dropped to MA200, and I quickly added another position. Afterwards, the stock price was instantly pulled back above the short-term EMA. The bulls were very strong.
However $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ It's just a bit weak. The main thing is that it was too strong before. It's been strong for a few months, and it's tall![]()
You should also enter Hyun after the tide![]()
Is it in person mode (this expression![]()
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That's so stupid). I currently have $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$ It's speculative; I'm not looking at a deep decline.
In addition, there are $Deere(DE.US$ I am optimistic about agricultural stocks. Currently, I have only bought leading ones. $VanEck Agribusiness ETF(MOO.US$ The reversal hasn't been officially confirmed yet, and I'm still waiting and watching.
This summer is estimated to be the hottest summer since this century. Despite the weakness of the manufacturing industry, the demand for energy in daily life is high, otherwise people will die hot. Due to the Anlu Mountain incident in a certain country, I realized that I should pay attention to the price of natural gas. At the weekend, I think it will hit bottom and rebound. $United States Natural Gas(UNG.US$ The bottom has been troubling for so long, and the volume has always been so high. It is estimated that a reversal is not far away. However, I don't really understand this commodity ETF. Can it drop from a record high of 1,000 yuan (counting mergers) to a few yuan, is it really an investment product![]()
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I only bought a little bit; I'm still more inclined to buy related stocks and bought some $Cheniere Energy(LNG.US$, I still wanted to buy it $EQT Corp(EQT.US$ However, as soon as I saw that it had risen so much, I didn't dare to catch up. Now I regret it a bit![]()
Let's talk about it when we step on it again.
Who is the most misleading $Goldman Sachs(GS.US$ After I bought it, it plummeted all the way![]()
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Fortunately, there are only 3% exploratory positions, which have now bottomed out, and the decline below is limited. At this point, cutting meat is just like chives, so let's keep it. The blame must be placed on Lao Bao's hammer 🔨. With Lao Bao's mouth, bank stocks all fell to 🐶. Forget it, my own stock selection level needs to be improved![]()
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Inflation is likely to rebound in the second half of the year. If the Federal Reserve only raises interest rates twice to 25 in the four meetings this year, I think they are all extremely dovish. I'm guessing the interest rate was raised twice without the bitmap, and the two times with the bit matrix, to see if what I predicted was accurate![]()
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ It is basically confirmed that interest rate hikes have bottomed out. Interest rate hikes are not necessarily bad for long-term bonds. After all, if interest rate hikes are too drastic, the economy will inevitably collapse, and interest rates will have to be cut at that time. Therefore, I have continued to look long on TLT recently, and look at the 103-107 range in the short term. The probability of not being able to see TLTs below 100 is increasing.
If you ask me: Since I'm so optimistic about TLT, why don't they copy the bottom when it's 100 yuan. I really didn't dare at the time; I wanted to wait until the bottom stabilized before getting on the bus. Anyway, I am convinced that the US is already inseparable from QE. TLT I am bullish above 150 (excluding dividend income), and there is no difference between entering the market at 100 and entering the 105 market. They all outperformed S&P by a large margin (I really don't believe that S&P will rise above 6,000 points). I also bought other stocks in May, and almost all of them went up, especially Tesla. I also made a lot of mistakes this year, but I was lucky enough to catch two Porteslas to help me outperform S&P in the first half of the year.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
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高贵的阿德莱德OP : Today, TGT successfully completed the crossing between MA10 and MA20, laying the foundation for the subsequent rebound. However, today's trading volume is not large enough, and it is likely that the turbulent reshuffle will continue for a few days, so that all of the chives chips will be handed over. Currently, the probability of falling below 130 is very small. There is no need for downside protection; my stop-loss point has been raised to 129.
decisive Beaver_4398 : I always enjoy your analysis and risk management ideas .
高贵的阿德莱德OP decisive Beaver_4398: Thank you for your attention. I wish you the best of luck
William66658 : Thanks for sharing, very helpful. Can you ask why they are starting to enter TLT now? There are still four meetings until the end of the year. It is expected that interest rate cuts will follow the second quarter of next year. In other words, high interest rates will continue for at least a year. Why not enter the market again next year?
高贵的阿德莱德OP William66658: I feel like the Fed's interest rate hike is immovable. It's just being stubborn, yet I've been punched in the face
However, the probability of falling below 100 is really small. The stock market has already risen too much. Next, either the stock market falls or the bond market rises, it will always have to return to balance
sTone83 : I feel like your trading logic is a bit confusing... fluctuating between trading and investing, as well as fluctuating in terms of both news and technology...
股勇者 : It's so hard for SQQQ to bounce back, this cow is so scary
