Is Nasdaq Composite entering a rising wedge pattern?
The $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US$ is in a bull market having surged more than 30% since last Oct's lows. But it is in a rising wedge pattern within an ascending channel as shown in the figure below.
The Nasdaq Composite started to struggle a lot just above the key 13174 swing level. The index has been underperforming $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ and $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ recently, prompting some speculation that it may be peaking. It had a great run since breaking out of the bullish flag back in Mar, but the good news are getting exhausted and we are entering a period where the data is expected to show either a deterioration in the economy or a stickier inflation.
The RSI has not reached extreme level of around 78.2 where the trend historically reversed. Also, the price is not near the apex of the rising wedge yet. So Nasdaq may still have some distance to run to around the gap of 14033 on Apr 6, 2022. Or it may cover the gap of around 14169 the previous day.
Hence Nasdaq may continue to rise until the RSI is near the extreme level and it is nearer the apex. If the rise is on declining volumes, it may be bearish if it breaks down from the rising wedge pattern and ascending channel.
Inflation has been rising at a slower rate, so the Fed may decide to pause in hiking rates. Analysts are expecting the Fed to cut rates later this year because the banking crisis may cause a recession and the markets have been rallying on this hope and the AI hype. But inflation is still far above the Fed's target of 2%, the economy and consumer spending are still strong and the markets are still rallying. So the Fed may take advantage of these and continue to hike rates instead of cutting. This may put the brakes to the rallies in the markets.
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