After the two crashes in '00 and '08, how long did it take for the stock market to return to a high point?
Although it is now a bear market due to inflation, it is different from the previous two crashes: a tech bubble in 2000, and a financial and real estate bubble in 2008. However, currently, due to too much water flowing out of the minds of the US government and the Federal Reserve during the pandemic, serious bubbles have arisen in technology, finance, and real estate. If the worst were to happen: all bubbles had to burst to control inflation, then this crash would be equivalent to the combination of 2000 and 2008.
Let's take a look at how many years it took for each stock to come out of two crashes and reach new highs:
1. $Apple(AAPL.US$ : 4 years, 1 year. It's definitely pretty fast in tech stocks, thanks to the iPhone.
2. $Amazon(AMZN.US$ : 9 years. Since there was no record high in 2007, it only counts as the one in 2000.
3. $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ , 14 years.
4. $Intel(INTC.US$ It was 18 years. It was unbearable, so it was called A Dou.
At the beginning of this century, owning a computer and being able to access the Internet was definitely the dream of countless people. However, if the bubble blows too much, it will only be worse when it bursts. Compared to Apple's launch 📱, after the bubble bursts, these two companies are still basically doing what it was before the bubble burst, making it difficult for stock prices to return to a high point. It's shocking.
So, if the AI bubble blows too much, if $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ The stock price has risen above 400, and these AI chips will still be sold in the future. How many years will it take to reach a new high after the bubble bursts?
Let's take a look at some value stocks:
$McDonald's(MCD.US$ , 6 years, 1 year.
$JPMorgan(JPM.US$ , 6 years, 4 years.
$Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$ , 3 years, 3 years
$UnitedHealth(UNH.US$ , 0 years, 4 years
$Walmart(WMT.US$ , 11 years. That's disastrous. I think it's a problem with my own business.
$Target(TGT.US$ , 0 years, 3 years.
$Boeing(BA.US$ , 4 years, 6 years.
$Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US$ , 2 years, 1 year. It really is a good defensive stock.
$3M(MMM.US$ , 0 years, 1 year. I can only say that 3m is no longer in its glory.
It wasn't a good time to talk about value stocks, but at any rate, there were some dividends.
Let's talk about the S&P 500:
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ , 12 years. The overall market clearly outperformed individual stocks.
Finally, let's take a look at stock gods:
$Berkshire Hathaway-B(BRK.B.US$ , 1 year, 5 years. In the insurance industry, the financial crisis had a big impact. But ginger is still old and spicy.
If the crisis recurs, it is likely that in the next few years, S&P will still outperform high-quality individual stocks by a large margin.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
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70882358 : Any fear of a debt ceiling is a buying opportunity
不可求 70882358: Because risk and profit are directly proportional
高贵的阿德莱德OP 70882358: Short-term bullish, buy on dips
102764470 高贵的阿德莱德OP: What is bullish
Yun Un Son 102764470: bullish-it
勇敢韭韭不怕困难 : Defense is still the main focus.
I think JNJ can almost open a position.
When it comes to technology, especially chips, “don't go to crowded places” and be careful when stepping on them.
高贵的阿德莱德OP 勇敢韭韭不怕困难: I personally think JNJ can wait a little longer. Recently, there has been a strong bullish sentiment in the stock market, so there is pressure on defensive stocks to sell, so I sold my account too. You can follow the trend of PFE. Maybe there's an opportunity. I bought some PFEs on a trial basis, mainly to see if this wave of bottoming out can turn into a reversal of the trend
高贵的阿德莱德OP 勇敢韭韭不怕困难: Chips are still the most beautiful ones this year. The overrated ones are mainly Nvidia (AMD isn't cheap either), but there are many chip stocks that are still very cheap or not expensive.
勇敢韭韭不怕困难 高贵的阿德莱德OP: TSMC, but considering the geographical issue (which is unlikely but the stock price is under pressure), it's still a bit concerned about how many times it has gone in and out
Let's talk about the fact that AMD and Nvidia are going to the Altar. Now a lot of people are looking down on them; there's a big movie tonight.
PF I'll wait a little longer. The logic is that the COVID-19 drug portion should once again affect revenue and the patent cliff. I'm more concerned about these two points.
The drug is in phase 2 (but according to its strength, it should also be fine)
JNJ would be much safer than Pfizer. You and I have different preferences,
The last time you shared about macroeconomics, I agree very much. Few people pay attention to economic topics; they are watching or betting on ups and downs every day.
In the stock market, everything is unknown. I think it's pretty interesting.
高贵的阿德莱德OP 勇敢韭韭不怕困难: JNJ has a wide range of businesses, so it is more defensive. What I mean is to see signs of short-term bottoming out, then there are signs of a reversal, and it's not too late to go to the bottom again. I went through the bottom of mmm before, and they all fell like that. After that, I was able to continue to fall; I was only able to stop and leave the market.
When it comes to geopolitics, I personally think the Korean peninsula is the most dangerous. The Taiwan Strait conflict is too costly for both sides; everyone is very cautious. TSMC has completely sold itself to the US, which is considered a surrender, and this part of the risk has already been fully assessed, so the stock price is so low. If a conflict on the peninsula affects Samsung first, it may be beneficial to TSMC.