Can Tesla still reach new highs?
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ After Apple's latest earnings report was announced, the stock price surged again. The closing price on Friday was 173 US dollars, less than 10% of the record high. Nvidia was also infinitely close to the record high, with a margin of about 15%. If they had to find a new high, it was probably financial report catalytic. Microsoft is also about 10% away from the new high. The picture below shows a few of the top stocks in the US market capitalization listed separately. Currently, Tesla is the furthest from the new high, and it still needs to rise 143% to reach a new high. This is the furthest out of several giants. Meta, which was previously scolded, has now taken back a lot, and it has reached a new high if it doesn't double.
This article is only a record of personal investment thoughts and does not constitute any investment advice.
The reason why I want to list all of these companies is simple. Basically, these companies are all very leading companies in their industry, operate globally, have high moats, and are all technology-related. I'm taking these companies out for another reason. We can revisit the ghost stories from the time of the collapse before, and then look back at where Tesla was. If it really wasn't that bad, why didn't they go to the bottom. Of course, you'd say that the current price is definitely because the capital consensus feels that the fundamentals are not good, but from another perspective, if it's really infinitely excellent, can you buy it at this price?
A typical example is Meta. Since the second half of last year, the company's operations have been relatively stable. The big difference from before is that it has begun to reduce costs and increase efficiency, layoffs, and round of layoffs.
In the case of Meta and Nvidia, which were particularly disastrous before, they both embarked on a GPT catalytic sentiment. Meta's big model was successfully recognized by the market and can be tested as GPT, while Nvidia is the hardware foundation leading to GPT. Stock prices have all skyrocketed, one is close to a new high, and one is returning half of the blood. Of course, Meta is also very successful in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and a new round of layoffs is on the way. At the same time, the advent of AI models continues to improve the efficiency of the company's operations (Meta's crazy recruitment after 2020 was also partly due to rivals not being able to recruit better people; now layoffs are more like releasing talents).
However, the ghost story of last year, Meta is that revenue fell short of expectations, the metaverse continued to lose money, and continued interest rate hikes at the time. The market basically hit a blow to this type of company that had no hope. Nvidia's revenue continued to decline and was affected by sanctions, then its stock price hit a new low, directly causing SOXL to collapse. This is a typical valuation collapse caused by a cycle of rising interest rates. With the announcement of the latest interest rate hike, the Fed is hinting that this may be the last rate hike. To a certain extent, we can begin to anticipate interest rate cuts. As the fastest interest rate hike cycle, even if it hasn't ended, it is already close to the end. Although interest rate cuts haven't started yet, is market speculation always ahead of facts.
So, for Tesla, what are the current ghost stories.
Sales of new energy vehicles began to fall short of expectations. Crude oil prices are falling, electric vehicles may become popular, and the rise of BYD may be affecting Tesla's unique existence. Tesla's sales are being cut, and profits are beginning to be affected. Recently, however, it can be seen that some models have begun to rise in price. In fact, if you look at it on a deeper level, like my last post, Tesla doesn't have many special highlights right now. There are no new models, no new stories, no new technology to be introduced to the market, and capital speculation requires profits or stories as a foundation; otherwise, fluctuations in the stock price range are normal.
There are no good stories, no excess profits, but these don't affect Tesla's strength. In other words, I think today's Tesla is more like giving you time to think about whether you want to get in the car and give you enough time to trade as a star stock. Once a new story comes out, it's only a matter of time before the stock price takes off. As for the ghost stories you are worried about, the fundamentals of Tesla now will be many times better than last year. At the time, there was also the acquisition of Twitter, so there's really no need to panic. It's actually a lot better than the company. You might as well treat ghost stories that are full of people and clouds as digestion.
As interest rate hikes come to an end, if the US economy successfully achieves a soft landing, then current stocks may also be low. If a depression starts to occur, then the current stock price is obviously a bit too expensive. Therefore, with regard to future trends, how to choose depends on personal ideas, but no matter what, I think it's still about going long and hedging. Apart from promising stocks, the remaining sqqq and 07568 twice as short will all be allocated. In particular, buy options to hedge, beware of the black swan incident. Interest rates are so high, it's really inappropriate to do nothing.
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ZnWC : Your post is very long but I read til the end anyway. I agree with most of your points espescially about going long. I'd like to add on certain points about Tesla and the current economy.
There're many good news about Tesla posted by many genuine supporters (Tesla's haters called them T-bulls). They're not easy to find because Tesla, unlike it's competitors, don't pay for advertisement. You'll read many negative bias articles about Tesla (mostly are copied from each others) you called them ghost stories because of paid influencers and haters. Don't be misguided and have a balanced view.
Personally I think US economy won't go to depression, yes recession but a mild one with soft landing on certain sectors. Bank sectors get the hardest hit, AI related stocks are rising - Microsoft and Meta have invested heavily on AI.
ZnWC : Here are the good news about Tesla:
Good news about Tesla - more than you think
https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/110280087110438?data_ticket=212ca245a589f1e400fb2e247953bc77
Here is what haters like to say about Tesla:
Things Only Haters Say About Tesla
https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/110307977068550?data_ticket=212ca245a589f1e400fb2e247953bc77
CathbebyOP ZnWC: What kind of impact do you think next week's CPI data will have on the stock market?
ZnWC CathbebyOP: CPI data will show if FED rate hike is effective in cooling inflation. The impact is minimum because most hedge funds and whales have already factored in that inflation will stay high til end of this year and rate may pause in the next announcement.
But market sentiment about share price is still very sensitive to such news. In general, share price remains volatile - correction due to profit taking but not crash. If you're taking long position, nothing to worry. For day trader, you need more than just CPI data reap profit.
CathbebyOP ZnWC: The Fed is under a lot of pressure right now. The market economy is still very unstable after the end of this rate hike, and inflation has not been effectively curbed. Including the influence of the dollar in the international market also needs to be solid, I hope that next week's CPI data can give the Fed to reduce the pressure