Stocks Just Flashed Another Signal That a New Bull Market May Have Begun, Fundstrat Says

The S&P 500 has rallied nearly 20% from its mid-October low. And another bullish technical signal suggests that the year-long bear market has given way to a new bull market.

As inflation shows signs of easing and the job market remains strong, a growing chorus of warnings about a hard landing and impending recession is falling flat -- the possibility that an actual recession could have already come and gone, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

"The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks above its 200-week moving average. Since 1950, there are zero instances of the S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving average and spent at least 15 weeks there," he explained.

Notice that the date in the blue box is when the S&P 500 started to pass its 200-WMA. For each time, the S&P 500 had been remaining above its 200-WMA for at least 25 weeks. The red box shows the S&P 500 started to pass its 200-WMA on 10/21/2022, and it's now been 25 weeks since then without falling back to its 200-WMA.

This signal has a 100% win ratio with positive one-, three-, six- and 12-month returns each time the S&P 500 passed the milestone of staying above its 200-week moving average for 25 consecutive weeks.