What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Inflation Data, the Fed, Bank Earnings)

Moomoo Breakfast US wrote a column · Apr 9, 2023 20:50

What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Inflation Data, the Fed, Bank Earnings)

First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week. Results from big U.S. banks later in the week will be heavily scrutinized for the impact of the past month's turmoil in the sector. Economic-data highlights will include the latest inflation data and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's late-March meeting.

$Albertsons Companies(ACI.US)$ and $CarMax(KMX.US)$ will report on Tuesday, followed by $Delta Air Lines(DAL.US)$ and $Fastenal(FAST.US)$ on Thursday. Things pick up on Friday: $Citigroup(C.US)$, $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$, $Wells Fargo & Co(WFC.US)$, $Blackrock(BLK.US)$, and $UnitedHealth(UNH.US)$ are all scheduled to release their first-quarter results.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the consumer price index for March on Wednesday. On Thursday, the BLS will release the producer price index for March. Both the headline and core PPI are predicted to slow from February.

On Wednesday, the FOMC will release the minutes from its late-March monetary-policy meeting, at which officials increased the federal-funds rate by 0.25 percentage point. The Bank of Canada will announce a monetary-policy decision the same day.

Tuesday 4/11

$Albertsons Companies(ACI.US)$ and $CarMax(KMX.US)$ report quarterly results

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. The consensus estimate is for a 89.9 reading, about one point lower than in February. The index remains well below historical averages as small-business owners struggle with labor shortages. In February, 47% of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, a very high level.

Wednesday 4/12

The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its late-March monetary-policy meeting.

The Bank of Canada announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep short-term interest rates unchanged at 4.5%. The BOC has raised rates by 4.25 percentage points since last March, and traders are now betting that the terminal, or peak, rate for this hiking cycle is already in.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for March. Expectations are for the CPI to be up 5.2%, year over year, after increasing 6% in February. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen edging up to 5.6%, from 5.5%. The FOMC has stressed that it is particularly important to see moderation in core services inflation, excluding housing, which rose 6.1% in February.

Thursday 4/13

$Delta Air Lines(DAL.US)$ and $Fastenal(FAST.US)$ hold conference calls to discuss their earnings.

The BLS releases the producer price index for March. Economists forecast that the PPI will increase 3.1% from its level a year earlier, while the core PPI will be up by 4.3%. This compares with gains of 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively, in February. A 3.1% rise would be the lowest since February 2021.

Friday 4/14

First-quarter earnings season begins in earnest with $Citigroup(C.US)$, $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$, and $Wells Fargo & Co(WFC.US)$ all reporting results before the market opens. Banks' balance sheets and bond portfolios will go under the microscope, following the Sturm und Drang of the past month.

$Blackrock(BLK.US)$, $PNC Financial Services(PNC.US)$, and $UnitedHealth(UNH.US)$ announce quarterly results.

The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to decline 0.3%, month over month, to $696 billion. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to fall 0.2%, compared with a 0.1% decrease in February.

The University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index for April. Economists forecast a 64 reading, two points more than in March, but a historically low figure. In March, consumers' expectations of the year-ahead inflation was 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2021.

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