razo2GuruGuruGuluOP:
you do know right when a collapse happens is not 1 to 3% moves. no one can predict a black swan but we can use data to see what is the next problem, CDS points to insurance that people buy against the bank definitely for a reason. you won't be buying fire insurance for a swimming pool right?
1. Yield inversion is the worse (surpass 2008 and 2020 as of today) 2. debt ceiling is so high that the US cannot make up their mind to increase of decrease spending as it is exceeding US GDP (personal free financial advice, if your debts is 40% of your income you are doomed for sure when things goes south. do the math and you will understand why bonds traders are not wrong). 3. credit card spending is crazy high to fight inflation (remember the 1990 credit card crash?). see Visa, Amex and Master past 4 earnings each. 4. M1 & M2 supply is low. 5. inflation is back for sure average oil prices is 55 to 60 USD. we are at 80 USD today with more oil cuts. 6. fed rates are 5% and will only increase. to kill inflation the inflation must be below the interest rates for a PROLONG period of time. this is a known fact. the fed wants 2% inflation, we are at 6%.
MiIIionaire : The general market is still consolidating and not over
razo2 MiIIionaire: cds in Japan Mitsubishi UFJ is increasing. the banks collapse episode is not over yet.
sTone83 MiIIionaire: It's just over ~
GuruGuruGuluOP razo2: but the stock didn't collapse...
下一个十年的雷熊 : It's just a small pullback. The previous increase was too strong; it's difficult to drop drastically now
razo2 GuruGuruGuluOP: you do know right when a collapse happens is not 1 to 3% moves. no one can predict a black swan but we can use data to see what is the next problem, CDS points to insurance that people buy against the bank definitely for a reason. you won't be buying fire insurance for a swimming pool right?
razo2 GuruGuruGuluOP: look at data:
1. Yield inversion is the worse (surpass 2008 and 2020 as of today)
2. debt ceiling is so high that the US cannot make up their mind to increase of decrease spending as it is exceeding US GDP (personal free financial advice, if your debts is 40% of your income you are doomed for sure when things goes south. do the math and you will understand why bonds traders are not wrong).
3. credit card spending is crazy high to fight inflation (remember the 1990 credit card crash?). see Visa, Amex and Master past 4 earnings each.
4. M1 & M2 supply is low.
5. inflation is back for sure average oil prices is 55 to 60 USD. we are at 80 USD today with more oil cuts.
6. fed rates are 5% and will only increase. to kill inflation the inflation must be below the interest rates for a PROLONG period of time. this is a known fact. the fed wants 2% inflation, we are at 6%.
East America GuruGuruGuluOP: The banking crisis has been settled, and this decline was also caused by the whale incident