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Difficult decision: Fed faces rate rise dilemma
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No fear of raising interest rates, US stocks rebound.

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ETFWorldSavior joined discussion · Mar 27, 2023 02:19
The Fed continued to raise interest rates, but the market temporarily digested the US banking crisis and bet that the Fed's interest rate hike was nearing completion. The US stock market rebounded after a short-term decline.
In terms of the global economy, the production side of the domestic economy stabilized last week, and the operating rate of blast furnaces further picked up. The operating rates of other industries are generally in line with seasonality. On the demand side, the real estate market performed well. The total land transaction price in 100 cities and the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities both increased. In terms of prices, the prices of agricultural and sideline products fell as a whole, and the costs of gasoline and diesel fell slightly; the economic activities of the United States remained stable, the financial situation continued to tighten marginally, and the real-time forecast inflation year-on-year growth remained stable; In terms of growth data, the U.S. was flat month-on-month, while the eurozone as a whole rose month-on-month, with Germany, rising, France falling, and Japan and the United Kingdom falling month-on-month.
In terms of global central bank dynamics, last week, the central bank’s open market operations had a net withdrawal of 113 billion yuan, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was 2.00%, the same as the previous week, and the inter-bank market DR007 interest rate was 1.70%, a decrease of 40bp from the last week. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate is 4.83%, SOFR rate is 4.80%, up 25bp from the previous value; the European Central Bank’s primary refinancing rate is 3.50%, and the ESTR rate is 2.90%, both unchanged from the last week; the Bank of Japan’s policy target rate is -0.10%, unchanged since the previous value, The TONAR interest rate was -0.01%, an increase of 1bp from the previous week; the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate was 4.25%, and the SONIA interest rate was 3.93%, an increase of 25bp from the previous value. In terms of central bank assets, the growth in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has slowed down, while the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan has declined.
In terms of global financial markets, the global equity market performed well. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.46% in the Chinese market, the CSI 300 rose by 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.34%. In the US market, the S&P 500 rose 1.39%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 1.66%. Global bond markets were steady. Among them, the 10-year treasury bond yield was 2.87%, an increase of 1bp from the previous week; the 10-year U.S. bond yield was 3.38%, a decrease of 1bp of the prior week; The 10Y-1Y term spread was -94bp, down 7bp from the previous value. The RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar. The RMB index fell by 0.5%, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, and the central parity rate of USD/RMB was 6.84, down 0.98% from the previous week. Gold fell, and crude oil rebounded. Among them, New York Stock Exchange gold fell 0.64%, Brent crude oil rose 2.88%, US Henry Hub natural gas fell 1.32%, and New York copper rose 4.57%.
Risk warning: global geopolitical risks exceed expectations, and US inflation exceeds expectations
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