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How to move forward while Bank Sectors keep falling ...

Do you think the banking sector will keep falling this week?
High PCA banks restructuring
The short answer will be yes, banking sector will keep falling especially for those with high (PCA) percent cumulative assets. Higher PCA is higher risk because asset is held by small group of customers. We are expecting bank restructuring in term of loan and reserve soon and more takingvover or mergering will be seen.
Rally in BTC
We may have avoided a financial crisis but not out of the water as inflation is still high = FED will continue to raise interest rate. Strangely market sentiment view the bank sector falling as currency falling (or FED starts printing money) and started a rally in cryptocurrency such as BTC and ETH. Personally I don't think the rally is sustainable and the pump and dump will come when confidence is restored in the bank sector.
Interest rate pivoting
The SVB collapsed did one good thing that is FED is not going to raise interest rate aggressively. Based on the latest FED data, interest rate may pivot in Q1 next year (or earlier). This is based on the assumption that inflation will fall in H2.
Moving forward
There are too many uncertainties such as Ukraine-Russia War escalates, US-China trade war deteriorates , Oil prices surge and Disease Outbreak (e.g. bird flu) may disrupt the timeline. We need some good news (and FED is not giving one). I'm looking forward for Tesla's delivery report in early April and analysing how China fiscal policy affect global economy and stock market.
Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Note: Banks on the left of SVB are safe but those on the left may face restructuring.
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