Calculate the expected rate of return based on China Telecom's financial report

ees. The penetration rate of 5G packages has reached 68.5%, ARPU increased by 0.4%, and broadband ARPU increased by 0.9% (revenue increased by 4.4%). In fact, it is not as much as mobile growth. It is estimated that personal business will increase in 2023, and broadband is estimated to be enough;

cloud service. Cloud business revenue is 57.9 billion. Telecom's cloud is about 10% more expensive than Unicom's cloud. Unicom's cloud dares to say that it does not lose money, and the high probability of telecom is profitable;

The capital expenditure in 2022 is 92.5 billion yuan. It is estimated that it will drop a little in 2023, about 91 billion yuan. The current depreciation is 96.9 billion yuan. If you squeeze it, you can squeeze out a profit of 5 billion yuan.

According to the logic of increasing travel this year, reducing home use, and making money from cloud computing, it is also possible to reverse the income of about two years. Assuming that personal consumption increases by 1.5% per year, cloud computing has a 50% increase, and depreciation counts for 8 years, which is about two years. Squeeze out a profit of 1.5 billion, the total is: 1910*1.5%*2*50%+579*3%*2+20*80%=7.9 billion profit, the current net profit is 27.676 billion, which is equivalent to an increase in profit 28.62%. At present, China Telecom H has a market value of 330 billion yuan, and the dividend payout ratio will be increased to 70%. The current pre-tax dividend is about 5.85%. According to the current dividend, it can earn about two years: the root number (1.0585 *1.0585*1.2862)=20%

In terms of valuation, it is more difficult to think about how much to improve. At most, it can earn a performance money, which belongs to the most boring company among the three major operators.