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Xpeng Inc. - Share price rise despite unconvincing results and forecasts?

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JP_mykayaplus wrote a column · Mar 18, 2023 02:45
$XPeng(XPEV.US)$ $XPENG-W(09868.HK)$ released its Q4'22 and FY'22 results.
In my opinion, the results were unconvincing, and forecasts weren't that upbeat.
Despite that, share prices rallied.
Here's why I think so
1. Lower deliveries for 2 consecutive quarters
XPENG Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Unaudited Financial Results
XPENG Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Unaudited Financial Results
In a period where grabbing market share is important, total deliveries play an important role.
As for XPeng's deliveries, they have been on a 2 consecutive slidedown.
2. Margins are also down
XPENG Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Unaudited Financial Results
XPENG Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Unaudited Financial Results
On top of sliding delivery numbers, the financials weren't that great either.
Vehicle sales are down by -43.1% YoY and -25.3% QoQ.
Vehicle margins are also eroded, dropping -5.2pts YoY and -5.9pts QoQ.
The lower sales and margins exacerbated the total revenue, which is down by -40% YoY
As the gross margin is also down, we can safely deduce that selling prices were cut to maintain or encourage sales, which did not grow.
3. Q1'23 guidance not looking great
XPENG Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Unaudited Financial Results
XPENG Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Unaudited Financial Results
Whatever reasons dragging down Xpeng seem to have not alleviated when they provided their Q1'23 guidance.
Deliveries continued to be between 18,000 and 19,000, representing another YoY decrease of -45%- -48%.
And revenue will continue to drop to between RMB 4.0 billion and RMB 4.2 billion. That's another YoY drop of -43.7% - -46.3%.
Are you positive about Xpeng?
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