On why EVs and robotaxis are not going to create multi-trillion dollar companies...
The EV hype is finally plateauing.
The manufacturing techniques of Tesla are starting to be more widely adopted. There are lots of other EV companies out there. Many are going to fail in the next two or three years. The ones that survive will be mass market. EVs will be plentiful.
In the next decade, maybe EVs become 90+% of all new vehicles sold. Margins will erode. The market will look at lot like it does now, with a dozen companies that make the majority of vehicles on the road. The names might be different ones, but the character of the market is going to be largely the same.
Tesla is getting $15,000 for FSD. Their window during which to charge this isn't going to be horribly long.
Anyways. My thoughts. If you're looking for a multi-trillion opportunity, it's going to have to be much more than EVs and robotaxis. And insurance. And batteries. And especially "fully automated driving".
Someone needs to sit Cathy Woods down and explain to her how software technology inexorably becomes very close to free. What doesn't are things like health care, education, etc.
The manufacturing techniques of Tesla are starting to be more widely adopted. There are lots of other EV companies out there. Many are going to fail in the next two or three years. The ones that survive will be mass market. EVs will be plentiful.
In the next decade, maybe EVs become 90+% of all new vehicles sold. Margins will erode. The market will look at lot like it does now, with a dozen companies that make the majority of vehicles on the road. The names might be different ones, but the character of the market is going to be largely the same.
Tesla is getting $15,000 for FSD. Their window during which to charge this isn't going to be horribly long.
Anyways. My thoughts. If you're looking for a multi-trillion opportunity, it's going to have to be much more than EVs and robotaxis. And insurance. And batteries. And especially "fully automated driving".
Someone needs to sit Cathy Woods down and explain to her how software technology inexorably becomes very close to free. What doesn't are things like health care, education, etc.
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ZnWC : Think you'll need data to convince your followers. My data shows EV industry is growing at least for the next 10 years.