UPDATE March 6 (Is the Fun over? Is it time to get serious again... COMMODITIES!!!🏗🪨🪵🛢🛞🥇🥈🥉☢️)
The moment has arrived. The truth will be told (by the Market, not the government or tv). The direction will be chosen, and the real battle will begin. Not today, but soon. Lots of data is to be released this week... The post has lots of memes, I use them as markers or reminders of what to chart on my post, so there is going to be lots of pics![]()
The bears have taken control of the market. They relented because they had sold the markets down to the 200MA, a strong level of support. At support, the bears say "adieu" they take their profits and wait... They wait for bulls to peek their heads up before they whack -a- mole them back down.
So, we can drift up. Enter if you are brave, and can get out before getting clobbered. I have 309 as a top top, that would be something amazing. But it would also break the stubborn bears. Friday could've been the top. It meets my requirements for a top. It was a 3 wave move. It reached 299, and it did it extending or drifting up.... If the markets break 309, then we will see if the bulls can break 311 and run towards 319.
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USING the SLOW KD with BOLLINGERS. a brief lesson into the Daily time frame momentum trading (one to 3 week outlook) with 2 indicators.
the important numbers are 70 - oversold, but bullish momentum can be there. 80 - just oversold, can continue pushing higher but generally, it's better to be out. under 20 - bears are in control, best not to enter. 21 - bears relent pressure (they don't go away they just take some profits. positions can be cautiously entered, and the position is still on an edge).
An entry signal -
On the SLOW KD - the K is over 30 and crosses over D - On the bollingers, the Candle is pinned against the upper bollinger
the arrow is meant to only point to the bollinger, nothing else.
An exit signal -
On the SLOW KD - the D crosses over the K - on the bollingers, the Candle is under the Mid Bollinger
as you can see, using this signal, one misses entering at the bottom and exiting at the top. But the difference between the high of the signal entry day (11620) and the low of the exit day (12090) is 400 points. But if one saw the signal and bought the low of the entry signal (11325) and sold at the high of the exit day (12500), that's over 1100 points!
That's an example of using 2 signals (and a good bullish run). Here are some nuances in using these indicators.
3 days after the K crossed D. SLOW KD went over 70. This is not an oversold signal yet. It's more of a wait and see. I call this "pinned" when the candle is between the upper bollinger and the mid bollinger in an upswing (giving the 70+ reading)
Here is why, 2 days later, NQ sells down, but the K goes up and stays above the mid bollinger.
2 days later, a giant green candle (this was building). Now K went over 80, and the candle broke the upper bollinger. Pros said "bye" and took their money off the table. Bears 🐻 said "hello" and entered.
WHERE WE ARE NOW, and how the week ended. Can you tell the difference between the above bullish run and below bearish run?... D over K.
Hitting your head on an indicator is an exit position. sitting on top of one is an entry position.
A quick example with $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ The DOW acted differently. Let's see how the signals worked.
The first entry and exits would've made considerable gains. The latter 2 would've required close monitoring for gains.
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In this new version of the markets with earnings dropping and rates rising.....
Why invest in companies dependent on earnings and rates? Recessions are the time to own THINGS. Commodities are not dependent on earnings. They are dependent on NEED...
Now Ready?... We are still through the Looking glass. Events are about to get crazy....
Let's go down the rabbit hole of the reason the market will decline. Why the FED is trapped.
INFLATION!!! - it's all INFLATION... it's always been INFLATION
It is so bad, and we are being lied to about it. But you can't hide an open lie forever. The recent decrease in inflation was the decline in Oil and Nat Gas. That is ending. As well as all the cheap prices of commodities that depend on Oil & Nat Gas (spoiler alert - They ALL do!). Inflation is higher than rates, and we are to believe the magic inflation fairy 🧚♀️ is going to drop a St Patrick's miracle on us and collapse the rate of inflation? No, inflation has dropped, now its going to rebound.
This was the calm before the storm. We are still over 6% inflation (by their numbers) and 4% rates. Rates are calling the FEDs bluff. They can not continue to raise rates. The debt is too high. Any new spending borrowed at 5% will cripple the country. Interest will be the number one payment on all government balances. So, how do you beat inflation without raising rates high enough to beat it? You stop the thing causing the inflation - money. How do you stop money? you no longer allow banks to lend. How do you prevent banks from lending? by eliminating the value of the things people borrowed against and for. That sucks money out of the economy and causes bad things to happen (or good, depending on your view).
Companies that barely hung on during the last decline will fail. The companies with projections and no earnings will be swallowed up by larger companies or left out to rot as they continue to fall with no support. This will not happen this month. But the market is laying the groundwork for it.
An update on the stocks I have been posting during this bull run.
$Snap Inc(SNAP.US$ Had an upswing. I sold my position.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ Tesla should have another run in it.
$Alibaba(BABA.US$ I have a different opinion of baba. China may get a bounce. iam holding, and waiting.
On June 15, I warned about oil
But now it's time to turn and face that foe... Bring forth the Holy Hand Grenade!
$Crude Oil Futures(JUN4)(CLmain.US$ if this breaks out, as I suspect, it should run to the 1st purple trendline (where the arrow for the upper bollinger is pointing) at ~91.
Should begin pushing up on the downtrend.
$VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$ 400! 400! Pound the drum.
Precious Metals
What's going on with the metals? is it a good time to invest in Gold & Silver? What about the other metals, Platinum & Palladium?
I made a post in Jan (I can't remember which one. They all kinda run together) where I said Gold would climb to 1980 and sell down. I predicted this and actually sold my physical gold & silver short (I mentioned that in a few posts). I was nervous as it climbed a couple more days, I wasn't sure if it was a rate play (gold goes up when interest rates drop), a weakening dollar play (when the dollar goes down gold goes up because it takes more dollars to buy gold. Gold is actually the constant - after all, it's been money thousands of years longer than any currency). or if it was why I think it sold off. In any event, let's look at where gold may go.
$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ : $E-micro Gold Futures(JUN4)(MGCmain.US$ Gold looks to be finding a bottom, I still expect some downside, but more upside in the future.
Monthly is still negative and has not yet turned bullish.
Weekly - on 6 of a 9 count. is below the mid bollinger and has a negative MACD. The target for this downtrend is the lower bollinger ~18.50.
STEEL 🏗
$Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US$ A strong base. I believe this still has a run in it. Then, it will most likely sell down with everything else. But unlike Tech, this will get gobbled up. Steel prices keep rising, and steel companies are able to pass these prices along.
$United States Steel(X.US$ NOT necessarily a good entry, but might have a run to 37.
$SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF(XME.US$ Steel and Gold/ Silver Miners, yes please👷♂️
The world may be going to hell in a handbasket, but there are always reasons to be cheerful 🌻 take time to do what makes you happy. It will be the best choice you made all day.
Be Safe🦺, Be Careful🍷, Be Wise🦉
and as always Good Luck ![]()
FUTURES
I think that moomoo is doing one of the mooers stories with me this week, and it has a little bit of my history in it. Just an FYI, if anyone was interested.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
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Buffalo : It is a great fortune and pleasure of reading your daily update post regarding investment strategies. This is a well-written and contained sound, practical advice. Even though the information contained in this post is way more than can chew within a sip of coffee but it is clearly written and thought-provoking. In fact, I (and a lot of Mooers) have already benefited from your discussion on risk versus return in stock market investment. You pointed out several things that I will remember for years to come. I look forward to reading your next informative work. Thank you.
icezzz : Amazing sharing and insight…. Please continue
sTone83 : Fantastic
LEng LEng : Great informative post again!
Thank you @iamiam!
101828445 : Thank you for the post and insights everyday, @iamiam! Is it a good time to load SQQQ?
iamiamOP 101828445: the market is going to climb. wait until it gets to resistance. looks like 304ish maybe higher.
bwjx : Thanks for the great insights.
Tadahking : tyvm i like the analysis
Mr Trecherous :
Mr Trecherous :
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