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Tesla Investor Day 2023: Silver lining or black cloud?
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Tesla Investor Day Overview

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ETFWorldSavior joined discussion · Mar 1, 2023 22:30
The Investor Day has three main parts:
1) At a macro level, how can the planet be transformed into sustainable energy production and use?
2) Tesla's contribution to the world, the report by the functional department;
3) Discuss what this all means for Tesla as a whole.
Core points
1. Musk's "Master Plan": energy storage 240TWH, renewable electricity 30TWH, manufacturing investment 10 trillion US dollars, energy requirements are less than half of the fuel economy.
2. Propose the ultimate plan to produce fuel for the rocket landing on Mars, which will extract components from the air and then synthesize methane fuel to drive the rocket. He also proposed using hydrogen to replace coal completely.
3. Tesla's next-generation platform will reduce silicon carbide by 75%. Tesla's next-generation permanent magnet motor will not use rare earth materials at all, and they will be built in compact and efficient factories.
4. The Cybertruck truck will come out this year, and the Cybertruck and all future cars will switch to a 48-volt power system.
5. Showed a video about the humanoid robot Optimus.
6. Tesla charging piles will be compatible with all-electric vehicles, and Tesla's 2023 production target is 4 million.
Summary
I. At a macro level, how can we transform the planet into sustainable energy production and use?
1. An electrified economy is more sustainable than the current combustion economy. Therefore, a large amount of energy storage support is required. Tesla roughly estimates that it needs 240TWh of energy storage, 30TW of renewable energy, and US$10 trillion in manufacturing investment; the main plan is divided into five steps:
1) Develop renewable power sources, use renewable energy to power the existing grid, reduce the use of fossil fuels by 35%, 24TWh energy storage + 10TW wind and solar + 800 billion US dollars of investment;
2) Develop electric vehicles, reduce the use of fossil fuels by 21%, 115TWh energy storage + 4TW scenery + 7 trillion US dollars of investment; in addition to the current Model, two other new models are assumed;
3) Convert household and industrial heating to heat pumps, reduce the use of fossil fuels by 22%, 6TWh energy storage + 5TW scenery + 300 billion US dollars of investment;
4) Develop hydrogen energy and high-temperature heat transmission, reduce the use of fossil fuels by 17%, 48TWh energy storage + 6TW scenery + 800 billion US dollars of investment;
5) Provide fuel for aircraft and ships, reduce the use of fossil fuels by 5%, 44TWh energy storage + 4TW scenery + 800 billion US dollars of investment;
2. In terms of raw materials, there will be no shortage of raw materials such as nickel and lithium. More importantly, how to purify them, and energy storage batteries are mainly iron-based batteries, and the supply of elements is very abundant.
II. Tesla's contribution to the world, the report by the functional department
1. Design: The design, manufacturing, and other teams discuss and work together. This is entirely different from other car companies. Tesla will consider the subsequent automated mass production when designing. For example, the design of Cybertrack considers reducing the arc. To strengthen mass production, Cybertrack will be listed this year.
In the future, a new generation of mass production concepts will be realized, which is different from the gradual production of classic cars; Tesla will produce and spray parts synchronously and then assemble them uniformly from top to bottom; the operating bit density will increase by 44%, and the time will be shortened by 30%, saving 50% of the cost; this year's new MY and Cybertrack will be adopted.
2. Powertrain: From 2017 to 2022, the weight of the Model 3 body will be reduced by 20%, rare elements will be reduced by 25%, the volume of the powertrain will be reduced by 75%, and the cost will be reduced by 65%.
In the next-generation powertrain, a 75% reduction in SiC reduces the vehicle's carbon footprint by 50% throughout production. We think the total cost of each car can be reduced by $1000. Rare earth elements are not used.
3. Automotive electronics: In the past, a significant reduction and simplification of the wiring harness were achieved, and the Cybertrack further reduced it, and the 48V weak current line will become mainstream in 2023.
4. Software: To improve, it is necessary to obtain real-time software feedback information and data. For example, recently, we got some Model S data and have been improving the suspension throughout the vehicle.
5. Autonomous driving: Tesla is adopting an automatic labeling system; by sending a real-time geographic location in 2022, it will realize such automatic driving of the entire team. For example, send a specific location, the site is transmitted to the vehicle's data, and automated driving can be performed.
6. Robot: (shown video) can move freely and perform actions such as screwing.
7. Charging: There are 80,000 charging points in the United States, covering 99% of the roads; it took ten years for the infrastructure construction of charging facilities, and the current development cost is much lower than that of peers; it is planned to be open to all other vehicles.
8. Supply chain: already has the basis of masterplan 3, the supply chain is simplified, more control rights are ensured, and automation is carried out; the first step is to remove labor, and the second step is automation.
9. Factory construction: The management model is perfect, and the speed of producing cars has become faster. A vehicle leaves the production line in 45 seconds. The production target of 20 million cars per year will continue to build new factories. The current organizational Model can be replicated.
10. Energy: Currently, it is the sixth generation of energy storage products, with a cumulative layout of 16GWh. In 2023, a new generation of energy storage products will be launched. Megapacks can be integrated and together can reach an energy density of 300MWh per acre, which is more than twice that of a power station that generally uses natural gas to generate electricity; the core is to use software functions to dispatch electricity and gradually replace fossil fuel power plants, including safety and stability software, high-Frequency computing energy trading software (developed by Tesla itself, already available for Texas households).
III. Discuss what all this means for Tesla as a whole
1. People want to join Tesla, which provides many job opportunities for the United States; we already had 129k employees in 2022, and Tesla had 3 million applicants in 2021; Tesla's culture is that anyone can at any time Suggest ideas or improvements in security.
In 2021, we successfully avoided 84 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions and were developing and establishing a renewable energy project such as supercharging. So it's not just about our products. It's about the way we make our products. It's also sustainable. Every product we make will be more efficient, and every factory we build will be more sustainable.
2. Model 3 is our longest-running product. From 2018 to now, we have cut 30% of the cost of this product. Looking ahead to the next generation of cars, our goal is to reduce costs by 50%. From the Model S and X platforms to the three and Y media, we took out 50% of the price. The mission here is to do it again, which is very important because as we improve affordability, the number of customers who can use our products will increase dramatically. When we tie this into our master plan, it allows us to scale our production volumes exponentially while keeping our product costs down linearly.
In the future, it is hoped to achieve an annual output of 20 million vehicles and an annual output of energy storage batteries of 1TWh.
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