UPDATE Feb 24
BIG news today!!!
And now I make a confession.
I may have made a mistake - this market may hit 301 as I had predicted all along as my high. It may do it for no other reason than to get some energy for more downside. So yesterday, when my crash warning went out, I started to see divergences and bullish setups. Do I believe we are going back to 13500 - NO (it's possible, but I don't give it much of a chance unless something amazing happens). But I believe 301 is definitely in the cards.
Here is why. We are oversold and holding the 50EMA, my momentum bands just turned up, and this doesn't look like a zig-zag correction as I had assumed it would be, it looks like a wave...
The reality of what happened yesterday was that shorts covered, as the markets hit the lower bollingers. They are sitting with that cash waiting for PCE, when they will make their next move. That's why the markets have been drifting down. They are not participating, YET.
Oversold markets like this can still sell off, which starts pain. That starts waterfall type moves. Do I expect that?... It's an option - if PCE is high, it will sell off.... now, like I said, what I expect is numbers that are more or less in line and the markets to rally up to QQQ 301, NQ 12450 before selling down.
If you gave yourself time on your short positions, you should be fine.
OK the charts
Daily
Bull case - If we break 302, this can run higher. in that case, the markets have priced in 3 rate hikes and believe that to be enough. Then 319 is in play if we can break the 309 afterwards. *not likely but possible.
PCE comes out in half an hour, just wanted to get something out.
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise and as always
Good Luck ![]()
sorry, this is so short. I will try to keep updating this post as today goes.
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BruceLin8 : I can’t get it? You mean going up to 301 first!
BeBlessed : Bro iamiam, the pce data came in hot. Is 301 still in play? Or ae we heading to 280ish before a rebound?
iamiamOP BeBlessed: everything is setting up on support. it will bounce, maybe to 301, it's doubtful. maybe more like 296, then resume selling.... this could just be a selloff, but support needs to break.
iamiamOP BruceLin8: that was if pce was in line. this should bounce, but the peak should be lower. Then selling should resume.
lucif32 iamiamOP: So rebound to maybe 296 and selling resume? Pce higher than expected
BeBlessed iamiamOP: Well noted, thank you.
iamiamOP lucif32: yes, it's going to bounce sometime (it needs to). but the bounce shouldn't be as high. And it may not bounce for a while,but it's going to try and find a temp bottom
BruceLin8 iamiamOP: Where do you think the temporary bottom is?
iamiamOP BruceLin8: NQ 11930, QQQ ~290.5 is looking for a bottom.
iamiamOP : when this bottoms, it should be a 3 wave up as a correction. as in UP - DOWN - UP, most likely ending 296/7.... BUT this still could reach 301 range, it has been down a long time and is searching for a bounce. I expect to 3nd the day near 295
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