UPDATE Feb 17
A quick post. Well the count changed as we did not break 309 and had that big drop, especially tesla[Flushed]
But it's OK, as I say, I only give the destination, the route is its own. The destination is still 13000+, but the route has changed. This area could hold, and it would be a valid count. But I expect the down path. towards Nasdaq ~12180 (can go as low as 12000), or ~294 on QQQ. I showed this chart path a week or so ago, but it looked like we had enough momentum to hold the more bullish outlook. That changed yesterday. I now expect the longer move. It's frustrating, it doesnt fit right, but thats why they do it. As a side note, these large quick swings screw up counts and momentum, and that's why they do it. Here is a quick, simple chart showing the most likely path. in case I fall asleep and don't have time to post 😴 $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$
it can go as low as 12000, bulls would need to hold support there.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ Could reverse here, or drop to 294. I expect a rise to 305 then reverse back towards 294. Bulls would need to hold that support, and I expect them to.
This is the wave 4 correction. Wave 4 could've ended at the end of its corrective move. it wanted more correction, so it enters an ever changing structure. Right now, it could reverse and continue its uptrend, I wish i could show it, but the path it is in now matches the previous ABC channel, so it could stay in this and push up. The only way to know for sure is if it breaks 310 the premarket high of 2xdays ago. It can also drop to the 298-294 range before reversing and continuing its march towards 319.
I expect this correction to continue, with a rise to 305/6 range possibly up near 310, but fall short of breaking it before going down to 295.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ oversold, i expect a rebound near 210. This would create a head and shoulders and send it down towards 185.If the market reverses here, Tesla can also.
Most everything should follow this path.
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise and always
Good Luck ![]()
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This is a wild market wave, changing to a diagonal, sucky, but probable.
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Golden_Spoon : starting short positions?
iamiamOP Golden_Spoon: no, don't short at support. if this rises to resistance, you want to go short. in the 305-310 range, unless it breaks 310. if it breaks 310 and holds, it can go long. if it doesn't hold at resistance, you can go short.
sTone83 Golden_Spoon: If you can accept losses that may occur in 1-2 weeks, then you can do it. The better way is to start at a strong resistance level (around 12750 or more) above, or after a downtrend is determined
iamiamOP sTone83:
102235596 : Hi @iamiamthanks for sharing your knowledge as always. I’ve taken a break from trading for the past year and am catching up on the wave structure and correction.
Since we are in a market correction, we are going for a big move down with wave 5 before we finally reverse and move out of the correction right? and whens your count for wave 4 to end, If we are still in the midst of it
iamiamOP 102235596: I think wave 4 ended last friday, its activecuntil it gets invalidated. the market is trying to bottom here, I don't know if it will.
NewMe : Just as u said.. tsla went towards 310 end of day..now at 309.. Do u expect it to come back down to 185 next tue then b4 potentially gg up for another run to the higher price targets u mentioned previously?
iamiamOP NewMe: Tesla turned bullish today. I expect more upside. one last big push I think
TinkerB3ll iamiamOP: Seems like TSLA should be able to open short soon?
iamiamOP 102235596: I don't think I answered your questions very well.
I believe wave 4 of this bull run ended last Friday, and we have completed wave 1 of 3 of the 5th topping wave. wave 3 of the 5th wave should be next. I have it going to 15000 currently. It could easily complete higher a couple hundred or lower. If it does not break the wave 3 high, it is a failure. When it is completed, then the correction begins. I have the correction going down to 11400-11600. From there, the next wave should decide what kind of market we are in. However, if we fail to break the wave 3 high, we are in the downward correction.
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