Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035

Last year, against all odds, Russia managed to grow its oil output despite being hit with tough sanctions, a plethora of oilfield service companies exiting the country as well as the refusal by western countries to buy its crude for the most part.
Indeed, Energy Intelligence reports that in 2022, Russia’s crude and condensate production increased 2%, with oil production clocking in at 10.73 million b/d, above Russia's ministry for economic development forecast of 10.33 million b/d.
Russia managed to pull off this feat mainly by offering huge discounts to buyers like China and India, with Bloomberg's oil strategist Julian Lee reporting that the two were receiving discounts of $33.28 per barrel, or about 40% to international Brent crude prices oil at the time.
But Moscow cannot continue defying the odds indefinitely. BP Plc ( $BP PLC(BP.US)$ ) has predicted that the country’s output is likely to take a big hit over the long-term, with production declining 25%-42% by 2035. BP says that Russia's oil output could decrease from 12 million barrels per day in 2019 to 7-9 million bpd in 2035 thanks to the curtailment of new promising projects, limited access to foreign technologies as well as a high rate of reduction in existing operating assets.
In contrast, BP says that OPEC will become even more dominant as the years roll on, with the cartel’s share in global production increasing to 45%-65% by 2050 from just over 30% currently. Bad news for the bulls: BP remains bearish about the long-term prospects for oil, saying demand for oil is likely to plateau over the next 10 years and then decline to 70-80 million bpd by 2050. $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)$ $Imperial Petroleum(IMPP.US)$ $Camber Energy(CEI.US)$ $Chevron(CVX.US)$