Drug price inflation continues upward momentum at 3.8%
Even as the world's best-selling drug Humira faces copycats this year, the overall drug price inflation rate is expected to hit 3.78%, continuing the recent upward trend, healthcare analytics firm Vizient projects.
While the estimated overall drug price inflation indicates a modest rise relative to recent years, it "does represent a trend towards more significant increases," Vizient said in its Winter 2023 Pharmacy Market Outlook.
The forecast covering the 12 months from July 01, 2023, marks an acceleration from the actual drug price increases at 3.2% and 2.8% for the corresponding periods beginning July 2021 and 2020, respectively.
Vizient, which also functions as a healthcare performance improvement company, uses the pharmaceutical products procured throughout the health system in both acute and non-acute care settings to forecast a year-over-year price change.
Last week $AbbVie(ABBV.US$ autoimmune medication Humira, which has an annual list price of over $80K, started to face U.S. knockoffs for the first time as $Amgen(AMGN.US$ launched its biosimilar Amjevita.
"Stakeholders are eagerly anticipating the impact of biosimilar competition entering the market this year, but payer preference will also impact the utilization of biosimilars," Carina Dolan, Vizient's assistant vice president of pharmaco-economics and market insights, said.
"If payers designate the biosimilar and the originator product as co-preferred, we think a faster uptake of a biosimilar product is possible."
Health insurers $UnitedHealth(UNH.US$ and $The Cigna Group(CI.US$ have already decided to include Humira biosimilars at the same level as the branded version in their commercial formularies.
$AbbVie(ABBV.US$ rebate agreements with Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) can also impact the cost-benefit of Humira biosimilars, said Ralph Pisano, President of rebate optimization company RemedyOne, ahead of Amjevita launch.
However, based on data for the 12 months ending September 2022, Humira has regained its top position in Vizient's member spend, which considers the changes in drug pricing and utilization.
$Gilead Sciences(GILD.US$ remdesivir, which displaced Humira to become the number one ranked medication for total spend in 2021, has dropped to number five as the pandemic impact waned, narrowing Vizient's member spend on the COVID-19 treatment by 33%.
$Merck & Co(MRK.US$ cancer medication Keytruda has climbed one spot to the number two position, previously held by Humira, while $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US$ anti-inflammatory therapy Stelara stands closely behind.
Notably, multiple myeloma therapy Darzalex from JNJ, asthma drug Dupixent from $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN.US$/ $Sanofi(SNY.US$, and $Amgen(AMGN.US$ cancer therapy Neulasta have made their way into the list for the first time.
Cancer drugs have accounted for the largest chunk of drug expenditure, making up about 23% of Vizient's member spend, followed by medications for autoimmune and inflammatory conditions, such as Humira and Dupixent.
Dolan predicts that Keytruda is unlikely to cede its top position in the near-term due to rising utilization and high cost.
"Additional indications, as well as use in earlier lines of therapy for cancer treatments, are expected over the next few years," she said about Keytruda, which comes with a list price of more than $10K when administered every three weeks.
Seeking Alpha contributor Edmund Ingham recently downgraded Merck to Hold from Buy, highlighting the impact of the upcoming patent cliff for Keytruda.
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