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Why did Intel stock go down today? Guidance shocks Wall Street

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Wall-Street Call joined discussion · Jan 28, 2023 21:06
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Why did Intel stock go down today? Guidance shocks Wall Street
$Intel(INTC.US)$ shares stumbled more than 6% Friday after the semiconductor giant reported weak fourth-quarter results and issued a stunningly weak first-quarter forecast, leaving Wall Street analysts to question whether the dividend is safe.
Why did Intel stock go down today? Guidance shocks Wall Street
Bernstein analyst Stacy Ragson, who has an underperform rating on Intel, called the level of deterioration for the financial results "stunning" and became concerned for the company's cash position.
"It is now clear why Intel needs to cut so much cost as the company's original plans prove to be fantasy," Ragson wrote in a note to clients. Ragson said the size of Intel's deterioration is so large that it "brings potential concern to the company's cash position over time, in our opinion."
Ragson went on to add that with Intel likely to start burning through cash, "it seems reasonable to think that investors should at least start thinking about the security" of the chip giant's dividend payments.
Santa Clara, California-based Intel expects to lose 15 cents a share, excluding one-time items for the first-quarter, with revenue forecast to be between $10.5B and $11.5B. The company also expects gross margins to fall below 40%, coming in at 39%.
Analysts expect the company to earn 25 cents a share, on $13.96B in sales, and gross margins of 45.5%.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh said the results from the PC and data center went from "bad to worse," as AMD $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ continues to take market share.
Vinh said that after "undershipping" sales in the PC sector by 10% in 2022, Intel expects that gap to widen in the first quarter of this year. It also forecast "incremental weakness" in its data center business across areas like the enterprise and China.
Why did Intel stock go down today? Guidance shocks Wall Street
"While no full-year guidance was provided, [Intel] sees the [first-half] correction will be followed by a [second-half] recovery," Vinh said. "We expect 2023 will be another challenging year with limited catalysts."
BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava was particularly negative in his assessment on Intel's financial health and the guidance.
"Whatever the reason, and however compelling it might be, a company of Intel's stature should know better than to spring a surprise such as materially lowering depreciation," Srivastava wrote in a note to clients.
Srivastava lowered his 2023 estimates, as he now sees earnings of 35 cents per share for the full year, down from a previous forecast of $1.80 a share, and expects negative free cash flow of $14B, down from a prior view of negative $3B.
Why did Intel stock go down today? Guidance shocks Wall Street
Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore said the poor results were "more than macro," as the Pat Gelsinger-led company continues to impose pain on itself.
"We agree that macro [economic issues] are the primary driver of this shortfall," Seymore, who has a hold rating on the stock, said. "We cannot ignore the Intel-specific dynamics exacerbating this pain," such as overly confident revenue outlook and hiring in 2022 and data center roadmap issues.
Earlier this month, Intel's Gelsinger said the company was still in talks with Italy to build a fab in the country but was talking to other European countries as well.
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