Update Week Ending Jan 27...
OK, my last posts have been rushed but hopefully I got enough information out there. I had a great post (i thought it was anyways ![]()
) but I had a chart with a very critical error to what I was trying to explain, so now I have started early to get this done correctly. Hopefully give you, the reader, time to digest it. The market is at a pivot point. Surprise Surprise - we could go either way¿ But iam BULLISH BULLISH and BULLISH!
Prepare while I take you Through my logic -
It may sound crazy, but the market will go UP with rates. It's been so long since we've had real rates that everyone forgot. The market had to reset to run again. Oh and the FED is done raising, iam not going to go over again, they have 1 or 2 left at .25 and they are done... (there is a small possibility they do .5 in February, which would be hilarious, but then they'd be done)
Let me explain. Rates aren't that bad, the stock market did exist with higher rates, in FACT it went UP
This is the "current" state of the market (last Wednesday)
This is the "Fair Value" of the S&P500 vs 10 Yr Treasury. Fair Value is just a relative comparison (S&P minus rates divided by rates). it shows we are fairly valued
Everyone loves comparing now to 99 and 08, I think we are more like 97 and 06 with the Rate cycle set to PAUSE!... and what happened after 97 and 06, hmmmm ![]()
and another thing you hear "the market won't turn bullish until the FED reverses" - LOOK AT THE CHART, that is a lie! the FED cutting is a sign the ride is over. The news is telling you that "Higher for longer" is bad - LOOK AT THE CHART, sustained rates for years makes markets go UP!
Here again is the S&P by sector when rates go up.
In fact I made an OUTRAGEOUS trade Thursday.... if it pays out I may share it. but if 273 was the bottom and the market does what I think it may do ![]()
. now that this post is a work in progress I can say I made substantial bullish trades in Tesla, QQQ, Mara, CLF, SLB & SLV... Friday went perfectly, profited off puts and flipped it bullish. We Ride!
I know what your thinking - "but everything is so terrible right now, how can markets rally?" ..... I agree, I just think your timing is off. Nothing of what about to happen is good. It is a long unwinding of speculation - through speculation ![]()
... It took a year but retail became conditioned to short the rally (I stopped saying that in Dec for a reason). Now i believe most everyone is about to get torched! The Market is designed to take the most amount of money from the most amount of people. the put to call ratio is still high, below is the ratio this upcoming week in QQQ
The Put buyers are buying Out of The Money (OTM), not wise, this anticipates a large move down and are easily wreckable (and actually has the opposite Δ effect on the market, in other words when you buy OTM options it wants to move the stock the opposite direction)
overall the market is still bearish
Speaking of the market inflicting the most pain - the market MIGHT IV crush. IV crush is when an option's premium plummets as a result of a decrease in implied volatility. This decrease in IV is actually due to the underlying security's price increasing. When the stocks rally, VIX will drop or "crush" and it will be swift and violent... in other words if you bought an option with high Volatility your option will go down a lot, if you bought an option with low Volatility your option will still go down, your call will lose value even as the stock goes up and any puts you were hoping to save will become worthless as the stock goes up and all volatility value is lost, a wonderful lose - lose. to simply break it down further, you could have direction right, bet at the right time even be currently profitable and still lose money!
buyers of options benefit from increasing implied volatility while options sellers benefit from decreasing IV. And Market Makers are net option SELLERS
here are 2 examples from theoretical on moomoo. First is a low IV option slightly out of the money on QQQ
this is an out of the money higher IV option on Tesla
The FED actually pivoted in October maybe even September. They started lending to banks who began to start piling into bonds, bitcoin, gold & commodities with stocks at certain price levels. They didn't do it all at once because that would fuel inflation when it was just coming down. They spread it out, doing it quietly at the same time using all their influence and power to condition your action and view. That was a completely controlled selloff, taking stocks to their lower levels, while simultaneously holding support levels on the indicies. Most everyone went from "buying the dips" to selling or sitting and waiting when now is the time to buy.... "But the XYZ said..." I don't care - it's noise - be more selective, use wisdom not passion or situation... The major misconception is that an inflated market would cause inflation, so the FED must not want that. this is incorrect - The Market is a BY-PRODUCT of inflation - more money = more market. Money is coming back home to roost and it needs a place to nest.
If your short I feel bad for you son...
$Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ "smart" money. Smart because they have it. And what did I warn you about them - they want to Keep what they have, AQUIRE MORE, and Prevent you from competing. On a chart note - that is a break of the trend, and according to RSI we bottomed in October, also according to RSI this can run OVERSOLD for many weeks.
$VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$ DO I really think it can go to 14.5? We will see.
$USD(USDindex.FX$ The dollar is losing strength. I like more downside to 99.
Dr Copper - the pulse of economic activity, when copper goes up the economy is showing strength. $Copper(BK2510.US$
Nasdaq. $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$ this ticker are Nasdaq Mini futures (mini is the "top" 100) those are the futures I track and will reference, if I ever give a 11*** this is what iam referring too if I just say "market"
And here is where the confusion will be, sometimes I say market or nasdaq but give a 2** (soon to be 3**), that is a reference to QQQ which I will also sometimes call the market. (I did it originally so I wouldn't have to give every index price numbers) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$
A triangle on QQQ. Triangles are where 2 opposite trends converge. These tend to resolve themselves suddenly and violently. The reason is simple and logical; when a Downtrend and an Uptrend converge they are trading off positions within the triangle, sometimes the bulls win and sometimes the bears win, but they have reached a point where there are either no more buyers or no more sellers, so one trend will Dominate the other and make a break. Look at how long that triangle is, when it resolves it is going to go like mad.
GOLD - I sold. tomorrow I will transact again (essentially a short position with physical not paper ![]()
). in for a penny in for a pound. iam front running what i believe will happen. I already said I like the market to go higher. I believe there is a CHANCE the markets absolutely rocket (like 97 and 06). IN THIS SCENARIO, i put my real money on the line - that's confidence (or stupidity, only the future will tell) Gold & Silver will be SOLD OFF... Why? Because, while they may run 1 or 2 percent and be a safe asset, stocks will be doing that every couple hours and the risk/reward will be too great. This selloff of gold should push the price to its final resting place near 1550. Something of note *I do not expect to find much gold available at this price, I believe premiums will be way too high. If gold stalls and holds around 1850 on a pullback I may have to end my position at that time. The reason is if gold can't break below 1850 on the pullback it has too much buying support and I should get it back at that point. The purple rectangle is the channel we are in, and I expect gold to hit the lower right corner, where it intersects with the long uptrend (yellow) $E-micro Gold Futures(JUN4)(MGCmain.US$
SILVER - $Micro Silver Futures(MAY4)(SILmain.US$, $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ iam sure iam early on this, and i believe it will be a false breakout, but should Silver really run this would act as a hedge against my physical position
$Stem Inc(STEM.US$ A new company I started a position in. it's a solar energy storage, maintenance and operating.
TESLA!!!! My #1 Position $Tesla(TSLA.US$ Woke up the dragon! also hold leveraged Tesla $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL.US$
Bitcoin/Miners - LOVE IT ALL!!! I've been using Mara as my bicoin play, I also bought bitcoin for the first time since it was 1500 (i had bitcoin before it was cool, i probably lost a crypto fortune over the years just throwing away old hardware) ![]()
I bought under 17k... Money is trying to find a home! $Bitcoin(BTC.CC$ is a home.
$Marathon Digital(MARA.US$ Killing it! that target zone is for this run ![]()
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it will not be a straight line but that should be the first major pullback zone from 22-44, once everyone realizes it's no longer bearish it will jump quickly, from like 10 to 22 should be screaming.
$Riot Platforms(RIOT.US$ Ditto Mara, less fluid, still very good.
- COMMODITIES SUPER CYCLE -
it may take a little while to get going, or maybe not, maybe it goes with the markets? ALL TOGETHER NOW!!! something like "rising money lifts all boats" ![]()
$VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$ The Generals, ocean drilling opening, oil supply squeezed - "but XYZ said the recession will kill demand..." Popppycock and Balderdash, there is no recession (for the rich, too much money)... Ask anyone calling for 60 oil if they put THEIR money where their mouth is. if they shorted it, I may listen, and see who iam about to crush... I sold out at the end of the run intending to buy a hoard of gold leave the market and retire into my lair, but I changed my mind, the opportunistic in me couldn't quite walk away. But iam back in OIL baby, yeah!. I especially like the Servicers.
broke out of the covid trend, and is resting on top of the trend using it as a springboard for liftoff.
zoomed in
Gold Miners $VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF(GDX.US$ for the adventurous $MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN(GDXU.US$
URANIUM - $Uranium(BK2430.US$ Weekly going over 50MA, more support lifting the price up and acting as support on the way down.
Potash/Fertilizer - a NatGas play, with NatGas price down these companies should be accumulated before spring planting begins. $The Mosaic(MOS.US$
A quick preview of futures and today
QQQ - ran hot, looking for a little sell down to cool off the indicators
Nasdaq - after that really hot Friday, I expect some sort of cool down.
I wanted to get this out 3 hrs ago but fell asleep working on this ![]()
I hope I didn't forget something.
We may cool off today, but 1 day does not make a trend. Most likely, I will be buying like crazy.
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise and as always
Good Luck ![]()
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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iamiamOP : Blackrock finally reported it now has almost an 11% ownership of CLF, get ready to fly.
icezzz : Thanks bro iam for your update
icezzz : What’s your target price to exit tsla?
iamiamOP icezzz: when the momentum turns, anywhere from 150-220
Thelord : Where do you see QQQ pulling back to?
iamiamOP : hard to tell, buying seems pretty strong. I would say 271 as the low, probably much higher say 278.
Thelord iamiamOP: The pullback likely to be intraday or can last a few days
iamiamOP Thelord: it could up down for a couple days to build momentum, I expect a pullback and go though.
iamiamOP : haha just face ripper, watch out for that pullback, now it should hold above 281. Good Luck all
Golden_Spoon : are you in tqqq,? I assume definitely not sqqq?
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