Update January 5
First real update of the year, and i have a bold prediction!
Let Loose the BULLS!!!!
I know I have been bullish for some time, but in my defense - the markets have not been bearish. They have been consolidating for a break - OUT or DOWN and my guess is jobs data is going to be the trigger. First batch of jobs numbers gets released an hour and 15 minutes before open, with the big release tomorrow an hour before open. I have cash on the sidelines waiting for a direction, I lean bullish because that's what I see, but I will let the market tell me where it's going.
High Yield Growth Bonds $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ - these are riskier bonds, they generally correlate with the Nasdaq or QQQ, THE BOND MARKET RULES what I mean is that the bond market is huge compared to the stock market (US stock market total value is less than 20 trillion : US bond market is greater than 46 trillion and 127 trillion worldwide) when the bond market shows an appetite for "risk" that transfers to fund managers who take their cue and buy growth stocks.
vix $Mini VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXMmain.US$ I see this Sinking below 20 ![]()
just to get the Bears to release their grip.
Yield Curves - the inverted yield curve is un-inverting ![]()
the yield spread is coming back to normal (still far from it) in the hope for a FED pivot. The bond market does not believe the FED will continue to tighten (the truth is they do not believe the FED can tighten much more) they think the FED will pivot before they break something... As I heard 1 bond trader declare - there is a 1% chance the fed has any landing, forget a soft one, and a 99% chance they break something... The truth is the FED is like the Rolling Stones say - Stuck "Between a Rock --- and a Hard Place"
yield curve since 1975 - the grey sections are recessions.
yields down = Markets UP
I see a move up - I would be calm, calculated not excited and go buy commodities and safe assets.....
But sometimes I gamble, and iam gambling!!! (haha here you go Rev 6 ![]()
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QQQ (the DOW and SPY have better looking charts because they hold commodities specifically Oil) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ gave me my bullish signal on my daily chart, the last 2 times I recieved a bullish arrow was before Nov 10 when QQQ had a 6% day and Oct 4 when it had a 3% day and went from 271 to 284 in 3 days
I pumped more into Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US$ To the Mmmmooooooon!![]()
... I LOVE Tesla, I never talk about Tesla because it's my secret pet, I love my little pet, but he's a naughty pet
and the market wrecked my naughty pet
"It's just a car company, and it's valued higher than the big 3 combined"
"Tesla is now worth less than Exxon"... "How low can Tesla go, until its valued as a car company"... "Teslas valuation is not reasonable for a car company"...
These same talking heads were raving about Starlink, SpaceX the Boring company and THE BATTERIES!!! Megapack those are the keys to Tesla, I wanted one so I inquired about getting one for my home, HAHAHA the salesman literally laughed, 30k out the gate another 12-36k in fees and work and well see if we can get one in 8 months. That's just for the Tesla battery upgrade on a solar system (like he said they are the best and if someone can have one they want one). The megapacks give tesla the edge into EV farm equipment, EV aerospace, Military (already in progress), EV Trucking and personnel energy storage! the future is energy, and if you don't have it you had better have a way to pay for it.
Tesla is a situation where the sum of its parts are greater than the whole. So this is what I picture everytime I hear a taking head trash Tesla -
Besides, iam kinda an Elon fan, but playing with Tesla is grabbing the dragon by the tail, you never know where it may fling you. Your messing with a genius who happens to be political enemy number 2, so tread carefully. Personally I refuse to short tesla, I have but it felt dirty to me, if you did short it, congrats but I wouldn't stick around, and I definitely wouldn't short into the hole. OK enough gab - CHARTS
I do belive we can run to 220 if we get a massive short squeeze, as is possible. More reasonably 155 on a good push 130 on a lame rebound. I LEAN ~170
the options chains are skewed - the puts are being bought out of the money while the calls continue to land in the money. this is how you get a squeeze by pushing the price into the call volume zone and away from the put strangle hold.
1 hr chart
others iam looking at
and as always Gold & Silver & Oil
OIH $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$ My favorite Oil ETF, These are suppliers. Looks like it's going to move soon, I was hoping for a pullback to 270 but looks like it wants back at 300.
I sold my GOLD $Barrick Gold(GOLD.US$ because it had a huge run up, 6% for a miner!!!! iam looking for another possible entry. These options went from .88 and I started selling at 1.45 to the last one I sold at 1.91
Sold CLF $Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US$ off another heater, I had a round of options I bought for .74 in the morning and sold for 1.25 an hour later. It doesn't look like a heater but this was down 1.5% after open. then rann up 1.5% before settling back. that is a breakout run! so when price settled back down I bought again.
Be Safe, Be Wise, Be Careful and as always
Good Luck ![]()
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Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
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Buffalo : I would love to see the Tesla dragon wake up
Thelord : Does the strong jobs data change the narrative?
iamiamOP Thelord: not yet, I think we may have another day of consolidation. I think tomorrow is the big one. if qqq doesn't break 262 we are good, if it does break it, it depends how but I'm watching 259 then.
iamiamOP Thelord: it seems like great day for some commodities.
MuscMoo : here here
Thelord iamiamOP: Wow Tesla dumped very hard premarket
iamiamOP Thelord: no volume, but if it's going to offer me cheap shares
iamiamOP iamiamOP: boy that was right, I hope everyone got some!
iamiamOP :
Thelord iamiamOP: Wow that stunning reversal on Tsla. Is there more juice to this rally or this is it
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