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A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3

What is safe? What is happening? Where are we going?...
This is a post that is a Mashup of several posts I was starting but did not complete, so apologies if it does not flow well, it is several thoughts on the same topic. A Commodity Super Cycle and a possible REVERSAL. Even if only a short time, it should be powerful. I offer a contrarian view to probably everything you hear, this is because iam the stubborn old man who doesn't listen. Nothing you hear is meant to help you, it's meant to garner a reaction.
Here is a little post update, I am leaning a lot more towards my contrarian view. Why? COMMODITIES!!! commodities are looking to breakout!!! When? soon -
I made a post in Jan or March about the markets bottoming for the year around Sept and a rotation into commodities would take place.
It is happening!
Another year of COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE!
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
How iam would play this from here: Slowly enter a position and accumulate on red days, always keep cash on hand in case you get a big drop.
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
URANIUM
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
$Uranium(BK2430.US)$  There is an "underground" run on Uranium. (all the commodities actually) this is like all commodities - coiling, building, gathering and you should be accumulating!
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
i made a more recent post in October/November about riding the market up with $MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN(GDXU.US)$ then shorting with $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)$ and leaving the market.
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
That worked out so well (I was up over 40% when I cashed out and ended that play after 2 months,(this is a retirement account so that means no options and only a limited amount of stocks and ETFs are investable *they want you to use their investment vehicles ^but they aren't returning 30% since oct and almost 400% overall since iam took control in 2020! toot toot Grin and to think i could be stuck in thier investment vehicles and still be working FacepalmLaughTongue my work had no idea but as soon as i was able to take control of my investments i had a foot out the door, i knew what i could do with all my "trapped" money)      but
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
then I saw something and got greedy, (see the downtrend after my exit from SQQQ) - but my greed is going to pay off.  something is happening, and as the wise oracle Warren Buffet says
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
Why would firms sell stocks for tax loss harvesting, then wait for the new year to continue selling?
They wouldn't, and now all that extra cash on hand combined with the tax loss selling money to open the new year with the stocks down 30- 70% (after Friday), and I sense a breakout.
The weekly chart of $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ circled is the dragonfly doji, and a page from investopedia about the dragonfly doji.
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
Now a candle can't or shouldn't be looked at without supporting indicators, but let's take a look at another candle pattern, and then I will get into the indicators. This is a little trickier, it is easy to see the Hammer candle but it is contained within two big red candles Shocked (yay new emojisBald+++) this can be decieving because it looks like a falling "two" Shocked pattern (not a real pattern, but those two big red candles surrounding the Hammer don't look good right?) the trick is that the second red candle barely broke below the Hammer body and wasn't close to the low, and could not break below the previous red candle... The common theory is that traders closed shorts over the long weekend, while this is true, i believe there is another reason. The smart ones got out. The Bears have NOT won, they haven't made a new low since October 10th! I bet most wouldn't have guessed that, I mean it seems like we only go down, when actually we have been consolidating for several months, you just didn't know it, because retail has been selling their shares. Do you believe any firm willingly sold appl stock for pre covid lows? don't be silly, they are not selling. (tax loss harvesting is not happening with the big stocks, that is silly retail)
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
I have struggled with my timing and smaller counts (counts are often wrong and targets will move with price). I have long predicted the 2022 bottom between mid Sept and early Nov and then 2023 would bottom in mid Feb to late March, I still believe that, but now I can reconcile that theory with the charts. While I now belive we bottomed in Oct...
Dr Copper - $Copper Futures(MAY4)(HGmain.US)$ if you wanted to take a pulse of the growth of the economy you would feel for the flow rate of copper, copper is used in home building, electronics, transportation, and electricity, hence Dr Copper. When demand for copper is up it shows high world economic growth, when it is declining it means less demand for the growth metal so a global slowdown.
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
Silver & Gold (and the other precious metals, I don't discriminate I like them all! Especially the P's $Platinum Futures(JUL4)(PLmain.US)$  $Palladium Futures(JUN4)(PAmain.US)$   $Sibanye Stillwater(SBSW.US)$ Tongue)
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
bottomed in September just as I predicted at this time last year, they did not reach my targeted lows however, this is probably due to demand being so high, I thought the paper market would artificially drop the price another 100+ dollars on Gold but it did not, that leads me to belive some of the more outrageous gold targets this year (lets break 2000 first, but when this goes its going to go quick, and i do see 3000 or possibly 4000 this year 🥹 i also see 1530 Broken). $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US)$ $E-micro Gold Futures(JUN4)(MGCmain.US)$
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
OIl - Oil is a massive play, and its a shortage play.  The US dumped from their strategic reserves to fill the shortage gap last year, what is the plan to fill the shortage gap this year? And NO NEW PRODUCTION IS COMING!!! there is a war on energy, and you the consumer will lose. $Crude Oil Futures(MAY4)(CLmain.US)$ . I don't care if I can say this or not but the US govt is sealing and capping oil wells all over the country. Permian basin, Kentucky/Ohio, Pennsylvania- All being capped and sealed. Sealing a well was always a threat and never practical, why would you take the time material and effort to cap an unused well? Now with the "infastructure" bill they have the money to cap them - YES that's right in order to build infrastructure our government has decided to use billions of tax dollars closing Oil wells. Those companies that used to drill and explore for oil can't do that work (government won't permit them) so to make money now they work for the EPS capping them. (this is also true of natgas)
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
$VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US)$ My personal favorite oil ETF, these are the servicers, they have the pipelines, refine, transport and manage oil - oil doesn't move without them. This SHOULD be 400+ the fact its not is criminal (don't buy companies that make money instead pour your money into companies that lose it like solar - that is ESG investing and its skewing the markets - another correction the markets will fix)
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
iam going to show you a chart, this is the "Livermore Speculative Chart" it is a human reaction theory for charting. Pay attention to the build up portion and the accumulation cylinder
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
Here is a steel company $Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US)$ we can see Livermore Speculative Chart in real use. That 11 dollar rise from the accumulation cylinder was actually a 100%+ move from the false breakdown. When the false breakdown occurred the panic was real, seasoned investors I know thought the recession had killed the cycle, but Thats NOT how this works! any recession makes the cycle worse/better depending how you invest! Lol (look how perfectly timed that failure was - if you were a chartist and saw that accumulation cylinder and then bought options for the breakout you were at a total loss, that was 3 months of decline, unless you gave yourself plenty of time!)
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
NatGas $United States Natural Gas(UNG.US)$ Followed Livermore chart, completed and is now correcting. Today was/is a big red day at the tail end of a correction - Yes Please and Thank You!!!! NatGas is going to run massively but it may take a month or 3 or 6, these swing wildly that's why the cycle is a LONG play. When we bottom we should restart the accumulation cylinder
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
A NEW YEAR 🎉 Update Jan 3
It's a crazy world, and its only getting crazier
Be Safe, Be Wise, Be Careful and as always
Good Luck Worship
I know this post was scatter brained - but I wanted to get one out just to say, this is a great year to make money! Commodities! Commodities! Commodities!!!
The commodity super cycle is alive and kicking! accumulate on red days and get ready to ride the waves!
I see a bounce and maybe a strong counter trend in the overall markets that could last several weeks - or not you never really do know short term.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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  • TinkerB3ll : @iamiam happy new year do you think NG will run up after today?

  • 102577212 : if the bottom is from mid Feb to March, will there still be a lower lower than Oct 22?

  • icezzz : Oxy consider is commodity or may drop as recession? oih would be better choice ?

  • iamiamOP icezzz: yes oxy would be a commodity play
    OIH holds different types of companies than what oxy is, so they could be held together.
    oxy is great oil company that has a small fertilizer and nat gas component also.

  • iamiamOP 102577212: in commodities? I THINK so but something could happen and they bump another level, so if they come down it MAY NOT be cheaper than now (example: CLF was a 3-5 dollar stock now it is 15-20 when we bump again it should get a 24 floor)... that is why I say to average in, and buy stock (you get divis)

  • iamiamOP TinkerB3ll: after TODAY? not sure, I would think so but not sure. iam buying today, just to start a natgas long position. I will average in over the next few weeks.

  • 102577212 iamiamOP: Very appreciated and thank you for your reply on the commodity cycle. Can you share your insight on QQQ bottoming between mid Feb to March? There was also a post share by you that NQ/QQQ might reach  Covid level or lower than Covid level? Does this coincide with the QQQ/NQ bottoming from mid Feb to March?

  • iamiamOP 102577212: yes, I think everything gets sold off in a couple months meaning nearly everything should bottom

  • icezzz iamiamOP: Thanks bro iam

  • 102577212 : thanks youHeartSalute

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