What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Christmas Stock Market Closing, Housing and Labor Data)

Stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday.

It will be a quiet holiday week once Wall Street reopens. It's the stretch between Christmas and New Years, and the corporate calendar is practically empty. There are no major companies reporting earnings or speaking with investors. Fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off with results from several big banks on Jan. 13.

There are a few economic-data releases to watch this week. On Tuesday, S&P CoreLogic releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for October and the Federal Housing Finance Agency releases its House Price Index for October.

On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales for November. Finally, on Thursday, the Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 24.

Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of the Christmas holiday.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency releases its House Price Index for October and S&P CoreLogic releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for October.

Home-price growth peaked in March 2022 at a record 20.8% and has decelerated since then amid rising mortgage rates and a subsequent chill in home-sales activity.

Referring to the September report, Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said, "As has been the case for the past several months, our report reflects short-term declines and medium-term deceleration in housing prices across the U.S."

The Southeast (+20.8%) and South (+19.9%) were the strongest regions by far, with gains more than double those of the Northeast, Midwest, and West.

The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales for November. Expectations are for sales to decline 1.8% month over month, after falling 4.6% in October.

Pending home sales have declined five straight months, and 11 out of the past 12. The housing slump is particularly bad in the West region of the U.S., according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, due to a combination of high interest rates and expensive home prices.

The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 24. Claims have averaged 220,000 in December, about the same level as the two previous months. While that's more than the half-century lows reached in March, it's still less than historical averages. This suggests that the labor market is still tight and Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes haven't yet dented employment and wage growth as much as the FOMC would like.

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for December. Economists forecast a 39 reading, about six points better than the prior month. Excluding the 2020 pandemic shock, November's 37.2 reading was the lowest reading since the 2008-09 financial crisis.