UPDATE December 23
What the heck. Well that was a weird sucky day. (don't even get me started about $Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US$, it broke my heart![]()
) I had to mad scramble to pull a tiny gain. only because when the selling opened I could see $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ was going down to 263. I didn't think it would do it on one day, but that leads to this...
So what went wrong? - My count was off, rather than finish a 5 wave down to complete wave 1, it was a 3 meaning Wednesday's rally was the 4 and Thursday was the 5. This happened before in November for the same reason on the other side (I thought the 5 wave up completed but it was a wave 3 that corrected to a 4 and blasted up into a massive wave 5, on inflation numbers![]()
)
Why this makes sense - This is a more complete wave. It hits my initial target from Nov/Dec when I posted we were going down to 263 (why do I sometimes doubt my own analysis). Here is my thinking... had QQQ hit 263 on Wednesday that would have been a perfect time and distance wave and I would've been totally elated and bet the farm on a big rebound. iam sure I wouldn't have been alone, it would've been too easy. Having a complete reversal on Thursday delayed the ultimate long signal while sucking in many for a santa rally (me included, luckily I manuevered for small gains![]()
).
What next - Here is the market for you, it does this often. We are right at a decision point (I don't expect futures to do much) I expect futures $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$ to hover here around 11000 - 11070 we broke the 11070 at 11100
we either
my preferred count:
1.) Wave 5 is complete at 263. QQQ is beginning a counter trend rally up to 277-284 (I think we can get most of that in 1 day![]()
keep reading) that should rally through a shortened next week and maybe, just maybe another day or three the following week (coming into a fresh new year)
alternate count;
2.) QQQ (and the other markets, the waves are essentially the same, they have not broken away from symmetry yet.) is in wave 5 down and this is a small correction to the downtrend. In this case we stay at the levels we are at (~267) and continue the selling down but now way below 258 as the 3 waves are the strongest.
Here is why this makes sense. today was a wicked selling day* it sold down so far there was no further to go, hodlers are dug in, buyers are buying for a reason and THERE JUST ISN'T THAT MUCH FURTHER TO SHORT IT. so they don't, they cover and let the market recover (from 263-267) NOW THERE IS PROFIT IN SHORTING AGAIN. Should tomorrow's revised November inflation and sentiment numbers scare the market we could easily sell down to 258.
*This is why I think we could rocket tomorrow.
The Put to Call ratio - this is how many puts are bought compared to calls (measures sentiment) normal is around .7 (higher is bearish) 1 is a high number and we are currently at 1.5.... here is why that is important, this is a paragraph about Put to Call ratio that says everything.
As bullish traders sit on the sidelines, the result by default is that there are more bearish traders in the market. It doesn't necessarily mean the market is bearish, but rather that bullish traders are in a wait-and-see mode until an upcoming event occurs like an election, a Fed meeting, or a release of economic data.
And we know economic data comes out tomorrow. This could cause a short squeeze. Everyone clearly shorted yesterday, into the hole. This means they shorted while the market was already down, these positions will cover if news is good, starting a sharp rise and a domino effect of covering and selling puts (both bullish). this could lead us to 275, 277 range easily. with Christmas over the weekend no one wants to hold a position over the weekend, so the algorithms will cover.
in other words this market is going to break - is it out or down. It all depends on data released an hour before open. Either way, buckle up. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a sell down and rapid rise mid day (as everyone closes positions)
A little note: iam ONLY BULLISH on Gold, Silver, Miners and Oil (the commodity) and other Commodities (fertilizer, food) $Intrepid Potash(IPI.US$ $The Mosaic(MOS.US$ & Energy (uranium, Coal, Nat Gas) $Uranium(BK2430.US$ $Uranium Energy(UEC.US$ $Energy Fuels(UUUU.US$ $Denison Mines(DNN.US$ $ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas(BOIL.US$ careful, as with all leveraged ETFs, but the best way to play NG, and remember moomoo will no longer support some leveraged ETFs, but I believe it tells you when you try to buy![]()
EVERYTHING else iam BEARISH. I only play anything else for a bounce.
iam currently long QQQ, $Tesla(TSLA.US$ (tesla could absolutely rocket 🚀), Gold, Silver Miners and some little runners $COMSovereign(COMS.US$ MMAT I sold my others $Guardion Health Sciences(GHSI.US$ $Tenax Therapeutics(TENX.US$ not that iam bearish I just had too many irons in the fire.
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise and as always
Good Luck ![]()
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Albert Ck : Thanks iam for the analysis, can I know if gas will stay bullish as well as uranium,if market tanks ? Yesterday I went long on it.
Appreciate if you can advise
iamiamOP Albert Ck: you went long when it was down or before? if you did when it was down I would say good job.
just myself I start positions slowly and have a price range so if it drops I can buy more...
BK is uranium commodity futures, UUUU is a uranium energy stock, Nat Gas and their futures showing the price increases YoY, also the last price rise in Jan 22 (30%) to show some trends. I believe these are all falling wedge patterns (BULLISH)
Albert Ck : I mean gas. I bought at$ 24 $ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL.US)$
iamiamOP : numbers came out FLAT, I expect selling then covering we probably close near even.
iamiamOP Albert Ck: that is NatGas, QG is NatGas futures, BOIL is 3x leverage of NatGas
RIPPER : I’ll tell you one thing for sure… If you try to get too caught up in small time scale waves it will be very very difficult to profit. IMO the only waves you should keep an eye on is macro scale.
You do realize there are a few different stock screeners that can show draw out the waves for you. Just trying to Linda helpful tip… Reason Elliot wave cap small timescale is not going to be fun and there are dozens of other ways to turn a profit easier
Golden_Spoon : thoughts on $Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.US)$ and $Devon Energy (DVN.US)$ ?
iamiamOP Golden_Spoon: I like dvn they pay a huge dividend. don't know much about pxd bur the chart looks good especially if you can get it on a little drop
Golden_Spoon iamiamOP: thanks @iamiam
icezzz iamiamOP: Do u think next week might be bullish or flat since is last week of year
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