UPDATE December 19

iam going to try something a little different, iam going to do short posts rather than a long encompassing post. The 2 hr on the Futures looks like it's forming a bottom and the first leg up in the recent downtrend.

which is about right for a small bump up to 277-282, before continuing the sell down to close that gap. The lift may play out on futures and lead right into a sell down at open. When the gap down is filled and price sets up on the trendline at 268 I expect the first real rally. Maybe as high as 282, to form a right shoulder, which is a bearish pattern and should be followed by a sell down to 260 and probably lower breaking 250 eventually but probably not this week.

These bumps are where you should be executing a short or hedge strategy.

A look at some tickers, I own short positions on these.

... NEW COUNT.....

Futures have led me to label the first leg of the downtrend complete, we should see a correction on Nasdaq up between 280-284 (i lean towards 280) before another slide to 268 and a "Santa" rally starting Thursday or Friday? or next week?... There is a possibility we bounce around the 270- 278 range before going up (actually we could drop at that point also) or drop as far as 263.

iam not shorting precious metals. As I posted on the FED statement release, metals and the markets are pricing in a recession but not just a recession the markets are pricing in and rotating towards STAGFLATION !!! What is Stagflation? Stagflation is an economic situation caused by the FED and government with high inflation and low to no economic growth (and they have no answers or fixes, because the answers are easy but the fix would be painful so no one is willing to do it - you don't get reelected by being honest and doing a good job. You get reelected by throwing money around increasing the problem)

Precious metals soar under this situation.

Longer Outlook

The FEDs answer to inflation with all their "tools" to control the economy is what? - To crush the economy, cause massive job loss so that the consumer (you) will stop spending money. What they are doing is criminal. These are not leaders or even responsible adults. These are wealthy (off of you, not their own ability, these creatures always fail up as everyone in government employment does, the higher up the more useless they are) oblivious, vapid, soulless monsters and should not be celebrated or even recognized as anything other than an enemy to you, me and the markets.... Anyways Stagflation is high inflation with low economic output/growth. Precious metals soar under this situation, so will OIL, Fertilizer, Nat Gas, and other commodities... the commodities drop and lower inflation numbers are a trick - this ALWAYS happens, just like any wave - this is a correction to another leg up, Inflation has NOT peaked, it is cooling for another run, the underlying causes have not been fixed (government spending, supply chains, sourcing/labor costs, energy costs) and Pow-Ow is going to throw 5 + million people onto unemployment to try and fix - Government spending the Supply Chain labor cost? and energy costs . this is a train wrecking into an explosives factory....

But it was meant to be, we have cycled out, complete, ended the American Bull run (was it great!?).

the reason is simple, we have maxed out GROWTH, we don't make anything, we have a crumbling infrastructure built by a disappearing generation, and not enough workers or will to fix it... we also DO NOT have the knowledge, we have computerized and made everything easier to operate without any ability to create anew or repair the old... We are a collasal old decaying body and our own energy policy is a noose around our neck we willingly tighten, cutting off oxygen to an already decaying tired old body and its only a matter of time before the body collapses.... we will bottom sometime in March and begin the first leg up  of the big wave down (this will probably be a FED pivot) so in about a year prepare for downside leg 2. but that is the future.... We haven't built a refinery in 50 years, we haven't built a new harbor since the 50's, we build wind and solar farms that don't power anything (They seriously power nothing, the energy is not efficient enough to transfer) and we don't even have the materials to build them ourselves. If I were to do an honest company health report for financial investment and the US was the company I was hired to look at - I would advise walking away from any deal and to short the company.... you better believe countries and large firms/banks have done the same and come to the same conclusion, why do you think investment is leaving and going to China, India etc, well that's my rant for today

Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise and as always

Good Luck