Hot tracking TSMC, where is the next market trend direction?
Buffett has invested in TSMC, which should be a source of strength. Is this cardiotonic agent effective continuously, strengthening self-healing and restoring a healthy body, or is it only effective for a while, and the disease slowly recedes like a thinning? Taking advantage of the weekend, take a look at TSMC's stock price and analyze it with two charts. It's quite fun. Speak freely and discuss together. Criticism and correction are welcome.
Monthly chart.
one. TSMC's monthly chart shows long-term trends and is particularly clear.
1. Bull market: Starting with the lowest stock price of 5.8 US dollars in November 2008 to the stock price of 142.2 US dollars in 2011/2, these 8 years were a clear bull market for TSMC, and the three-stage trend was clearly discernible. The first stage began in November 2008 to August 2015, and the lowest price rose to 17.32 US dollars; the second stage began in December 2008, and until March 2020, the upward trend clearly accelerated, and the lowest stock price rose to 42.7 US dollars; the third stage began in April 2020, and until February 2021, the stock price rose rapidly in a straight line during this stage, reaching a maximum stock price of 142.2 US dollars.
2. Bear market: Beginning in March 2021, it has entered a sideways and downtrend. Among them, there is a clear division of stages: from March 2021 to January 2022, the high level was sideways for 11 months. The stock price fluctuated sideways between a maximum of 145 US dollars and a minimum of 107 US dollars, and the price fluctuated by about 30%. Beginning in February 2022, the stock price declined until the lowest price of $59.5 in October 2022.
3. The stock price rebounded in November 2022 to a high of 93.19 US dollars, continuously surpassing the October high of 74.92 US dollars and the September high of 92.98 US dollars. Has the trend reversed? Let's analyze it again on the daily chart.
4. On the monthly chart, February 2021 and January 2022 should have been double peaks. The price fell below $108.32, confirming and verifying the downward trend. Three of them tested the important price level of around $108.
two. Daily chart.
1. The daily chart captures the $145 price level so far on January 13, 2022. From 145 US dollars to the lowest price of 59.43 US dollars on November 3, there was no change in the main trend, which mainly fell below. There were many immediate rebounds and repairs, but both price highs and lows fell to new lows one after another.
2. A downtrend line was obtained from 145 US dollars and 90.98 US dollars on August 5, 2022. This trend line was verified many times at $82.98 on September 2, $78.44 on September 20, and $74.92 on October 6.
3. Since the trend line was broken through an upward rebound on November 9, it has been 12 consecutive trading days, and the stock price has surpassed the rebound high of $74.92 on October 6 and the price high of $82.5 on September 12. Has the trend reversed?
4. Details and special phenomena:
From November 3 to November 15, prices jumped upward four times in a row, reflecting the rise in stock prices and a surge of forces from many sides. Although they are all skipping upward, the meaning of several jumps is different. Among them, there was no corresponding increase in the trading volume of the upward jump on November 11; on November 15, the trading volume increased abnormally, but the skipping closed a negative line near the lowest price of the day. Does this jump reflect the exhaustion of the upward market, or is it a jump of inertia in the upward trend?
On the eight trading days from November 15 to November 25, the stock price showed a high sideways trade. The price fluctuation range was 5.5%, fluctuating sideways in the price pipeline between the highest price of 83.19 US dollars and the lowest price of 78.69 US dollars.
5. Is the relay platform weak on the rise and will it turn into a downward trend in the future? Or is it a break in the middle of the rise?
Judging from all trends, price levels, price patterns, and trading volume, once an upward price pipeline goes online one day, it means that the upward trend resumes and is worth following up; once a few days after the boom, the price breaks down the price level line, it means a reversal of the trend. The main trend is still a decline, indicating that the reversal has failed. This sideways trading won't last long; I'm looking forward to market verification. There are many mistakes, the market won't be wrong.
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