$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The entire market trend has been slow over...
$Apple(AAPL.US$ The entire market trend has been slow over the past week, and there is basically no good volatility to provide suitable trend opportunities. However, with the slow upward trend of the US stock index, the key resistance is no longer far away. Under the premise that the performance of other indicators (see last week's content) is weak, we believe that the next 1-3 weeks can focus on the competition for key support. In the case of S&P, for example, the competition around 3,900 may be critical.
The importance of these levels on a technical level can be seen at a glance. This covers the most recent daily fluctuation low; the support/resistance transition in September-October; and even earlier in the second quarter, this position witnessed the emergence of tug-of-war and shorting. Therefore, if the market chooses to fall below this level, there is reason to doubt that this is the first sign of the end of the rebound. As we said last week, we're not in a hurry to go backwards and go short. But if the core position loosens, then it may be possible to act. If the market can continue to fluctuate above this position, we think next week will be a relatively important time window. The closing bulls of the week of 12.12 need to stay above 4000, so that a completed setup9 signal can be formed. In terms of strength or weakness, this is a sign that the bulls are strengthening. Conversely, even if there is no failure of 3,900, from a time cycle perspective, you can also consider starting to lay out an empty order.
Of course, there is another possibility that the market will enter a bullish rhythm, break through the trend line suppression above 4100, and the weekly high point before 4175. If this situation were to occur, the next critical rebound target would be above 4,300. Currently, however, this possibility is not too high. Also, even so, we don't think the medium- to long-term trend will return to a bull market. At best, it's just a difference in the strength and duration of the rebound.
The similar pattern is slightly different between the NASDAQ and the Dow. For example, the NASDAQ's time cycle is relatively slow. The Dow's cycle is close to S&P but is stronger, but there are many changes.
At the same time, we can continue to observe the operating trajectory of the reference indicators. We focused on oil prices last week, so I won't go into details here. The US dollar index rose and fell again last week, which is beneficial to risk sentiment. However, there isn't much of a problem with the US dollar itself. As long as it remains in the 102.5-104 region and can stabilize, then a large-scale rebound or return to strength is a probable event. Once the dollar comes back, it is also basically announced that the good days for other varieties have basically come to an end.
Overall, we expect risk assets to be more likely to have completed a rebound or are very close to completing a rebound. All you need to do now is wait for a clear reversal signal to appear and take the opportunity to join the bears. Considering the recent drop in oil prices, choosing options to trade US stocks may be a better choice: avoid variables after false breakthroughs occur, and you may also enjoy potential profit margins after trends are confirmed. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$
The importance of these levels on a technical level can be seen at a glance. This covers the most recent daily fluctuation low; the support/resistance transition in September-October; and even earlier in the second quarter, this position witnessed the emergence of tug-of-war and shorting. Therefore, if the market chooses to fall below this level, there is reason to doubt that this is the first sign of the end of the rebound. As we said last week, we're not in a hurry to go backwards and go short. But if the core position loosens, then it may be possible to act. If the market can continue to fluctuate above this position, we think next week will be a relatively important time window. The closing bulls of the week of 12.12 need to stay above 4000, so that a completed setup9 signal can be formed. In terms of strength or weakness, this is a sign that the bulls are strengthening. Conversely, even if there is no failure of 3,900, from a time cycle perspective, you can also consider starting to lay out an empty order.
Of course, there is another possibility that the market will enter a bullish rhythm, break through the trend line suppression above 4100, and the weekly high point before 4175. If this situation were to occur, the next critical rebound target would be above 4,300. Currently, however, this possibility is not too high. Also, even so, we don't think the medium- to long-term trend will return to a bull market. At best, it's just a difference in the strength and duration of the rebound.
The similar pattern is slightly different between the NASDAQ and the Dow. For example, the NASDAQ's time cycle is relatively slow. The Dow's cycle is close to S&P but is stronger, but there are many changes.
At the same time, we can continue to observe the operating trajectory of the reference indicators. We focused on oil prices last week, so I won't go into details here. The US dollar index rose and fell again last week, which is beneficial to risk sentiment. However, there isn't much of a problem with the US dollar itself. As long as it remains in the 102.5-104 region and can stabilize, then a large-scale rebound or return to strength is a probable event. Once the dollar comes back, it is also basically announced that the good days for other varieties have basically come to an end.
Overall, we expect risk assets to be more likely to have completed a rebound or are very close to completing a rebound. All you need to do now is wait for a clear reversal signal to appear and take the opportunity to join the bears. Considering the recent drop in oil prices, choosing options to trade US stocks may be a better choice: avoid variables after false breakthroughs occur, and you may also enjoy potential profit margins after trends are confirmed. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$
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