UPDATE November 28
Once again I started this post over the weekend and ended up adding to it off and on.
a weekend post, while I have a second... I'm setting up a new 125 gal fish tank and took a quick break![]()
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iam still very very short term bullish!
but not OIL, oil will collapse hard and probably fall all the way to 65. I predict that will be the bottom and we will get a sharp recovery to around 72 where we should begin to base and form a new bottom where we can begin a second OIL bull run. This is the bottom for a long play in oil, the commodity not necessarily the oil/gas stocks.
A little side note from a commodities guy who has been through this many times - WE ARE ABSOLUTELY IN A COMMODITIES SUPER CYCLE!!!... commodity cycles are not gradual increases or bull runs like the tech bull run of the last 15 years... the way commodity cycles work is that they are a series of increasingly wilder swings.... Larger ups followed by wild lower drops...
...oil just ran from 6.5 to 130 back down to 65, that's retracing 52.6% of the bull run. if you were at the ocean and you watched a wave approach and crash, then the ocean receded half way from where that wave started - you had better start running for higher ground!!! do you get the analogy... This is what commodity cycles do, and this current cycle is the last 3 cycles on steroids! 175 OIL will happen. 200+ oil is very very possible, but iam getting ahead of myself... for now leave oil alone unless you short it. When it hits 65, iam buying everything I can get my hands on (this is real life not just the stock market, I will be trying to purchase entire tankers of gasoline and diesel), the oil stocks should follow the stock market action and NOT the commodity price action. As shown below oil stocks were on a bullish run even as oil the commodity fell in price. I expect the opposite, however the bottom in oil should also coincide closely with a temp bottom in oil stocks.
$Baker Hughes(BKR.US$ the ticker I have been most active with. I'm actually shorting it now, hoping to drop below 25.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ iam very bullish short term, I still want it to aggressively attack my targets, and it still looks like it should, but time is hard to time ![]()
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I am still holding onto my targets and letting the market prove my theory, wrong or right, so far it keeps giving off buy signals with little positive movement (outside some small runners I'm playing because options have been a slow death). The last time it did this, I thought it was churning lower and gave up on it reaching my targets only to have it hit my targets in a massive 2 day rally. I had given up on the structure because bear markets can always sell down quickly, but I shouldn't have. This time I can hold longer to wait for the structure to play out.
$Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ "Smart money" keeps pushing higher, it is approaching the 200MA but just gained some momentum this last week.
$USD(USDindex.FX$ The dollar looks like it is trying for a short reversal on the daily, but the weekly is showing clear pressure on the dollar until at least 103.5. on the weekly you can also see the 9 count to a reversal sitting at 6 leaving 2-3 weeks to complete the decline.
the drop in the dollar should continue the bullish run in the metals.
the drop in the dollar plus the drop in oil is good news for steel manufacturers and miners.
$VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF(GDX.US$ $MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN(GDXU.US$ if you don't follow me iam riding this leveraged miner ETF big time. Both moomoo and myself have a target just above 30, a 5+% gain, for GDXU that could be as much as 15% (depending on how it moves)
$Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US$ inverse head and shoulders, with around a 17.7 target.
I have been buying and selling snapchat on this ride up from the bottom, I want this to uncoil, and hit those upper targets. $Snap Inc(SNAP.US$
my little runners - better than options right now, iam up 35% ish. These little ones are making power bullish moves, building and gathering momentum.
$Guardion Health Sciences(GHSI.US$ this has been an accordion, spikes and drops but building momentum by gathering the Moving Averages underneath us.
$Tenax Therapeutics(TENX.US$ Building a massive triangle, I want to see a massive breakout - eventually, maybe a couple of days.
A close with Nasdaq futures on the different time frames, then QQQ on the 2 hr. it looks like it is trying to turn around, a break below 11630 could lead us lower towards the 11500's.
QQQ
iam off to work, down the snowy mountain.
Be careful, be safe, be wise and as always
Good Luck ![]()
I will close with some very wise words from a very very evil man, he was right, and proceeded to rob the country of its gold, convincing the young growing country into believing it needed to create a new monetary oversight system to incure debt for the country to grow. The country then banned and confiscated the peoples gold to give it to the bankers in exchange for the new Central Bank dollar system. and if you think they won't do it again look at the rollout of the new CBDC system (just rolled out in the 7 largest banks)
C - Central
B- Bank
D - Digital
C - Currency
once you deplete the usefulness of a ponzi scheme you need a new one (US Dollar- backed only by confidence, and how confident are you in the US and our financial and production futures). this is why the FED talks and talks, they know the only real power they have is to sway consumer sentiment, which is why they will pivot, they can not risk losing confidence in their system.
eventually gold will fly, the dollar will collapse, and the US will be in a DEPRESSION, which inevitably leads to war. This is all playing out slowly, but that is what is happening.
This is my outlook, should I ever confuse anyone that iam bullish on the US stock market - iam not. iam bullish commodities OIL, GOLD, SILVER, STEEL, URANIUM - anything you can touch and feel "i want to own anything that if you drop it on your foot, it hurts"
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Buffalo : Very true about the fiat monetary system. Sad but true.
icezzz : GDX drop yesterday. Is it trend reversal or pullback?
iamiamOP icezzz: I think it's a pullback, it's trying to bottom, but it can sell down again.
bullrider_21 : What effects do you think the EU price cap, EU bans on seaborne crude and refined products have on crude oil prices?
bullrider_21 : What about OPEC+ production cuts?
iamiamOP bullrider_21: none of it really matters right now. oil is in a trade, meaning the chart will do what it is going to do.
iamiamOP bullrider_21: just as a note on europe, nothing they do with oil matters, they are digging their own graves. they dont have their own energy, they are dependent on Russia, and the more they bite the hand that powers them, the worse it will get. the only thing to do with europe is short it into the dark ages which is where they are going.
bullrider_21 iamiamOP: So do you think oil prices will get a pop and then continue falling to USD65?
iamiamOP bullrider_21: it might, oil is on a nine count reversal on the daily, so it could push up, but it's still below the moving Averages, and would have to fight really hard to reverse.
Revelation 6 : Run away, run away. I love it. A totally different time and a place. And it worked, well!
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