Tesla's recent situation sorting and Q4 sales forecast
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures(JUN4)(MNQmain.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$ Recently, I've sorted out some information about $Tesla (TSLA) $, mainly referring to some information from Troy Teslike and the US.
Judging from the current data:
1) The production volume of Q4 Tesla is estimated at 46,6165 units, and the production volume for the full year of 2022 is estimated at 1.396 million units
2) Tesla's delivery estimate for Q4 is 420,000, of which the main delivery locations are 165,000 in the US and Canada, 120,000 in China, 101,000 in Europe, and 33,000 in other regions
Judging from the current data:
1) The production volume of Q4 Tesla is estimated at 46,6165 units, and the production volume for the full year of 2022 is estimated at 1.396 million units
2) Tesla's delivery estimate for Q4 is 420,000, of which the main delivery locations are 165,000 in the US and Canada, 120,000 in China, 101,000 in Europe, and 33,000 in other regions
3) Looking at the order pool, there are currently 285,000 in the world, and China's estimate at the end of October is 32,000 (after the price reduction, the number of orders increased)
Judging from the distribution of battery demand
1) The supply of LFP this year, Chinese batteries have mitigated US demand, but the IRA will change the supply in the US market in the future
2) Next year, 4680 and 2170 batteries will be the main supply in the US market
Judging from Tesla's performance this year, we have seen that the focus on developing autonomous driving technology has not been exchanged for direct order changes. This order pool is rapidly being consumed in a competitive market. The biggest problem in China is the change in Model 3 data.
According to Troy's calculations, Tesla's global order backlog on October 31 was 285,000 units, down from 299,000 units on September 30. The decline occurred mainly in the US, where deliveries were carried out at full speed.
1) The supply of LFP this year, Chinese batteries have mitigated US demand, but the IRA will change the supply in the US market in the future
2) Next year, 4680 and 2170 batteries will be the main supply in the US market
Judging from Tesla's performance this year, we have seen that the focus on developing autonomous driving technology has not been exchanged for direct order changes. This order pool is rapidly being consumed in a competitive market. The biggest problem in China is the change in Model 3 data.
According to Troy's calculations, Tesla's global order backlog on October 31 was 285,000 units, down from 299,000 units on September 30. The decline occurred mainly in the US, where deliveries were carried out at full speed.
I understand that in the current state, the goal is to boost delivery in December and quickly squeeze out orders in Tier 1 and 2 cities. This is a very difficult task. The conventional insurance and price reduction model may not be effective. It is possible that a special discount method is being discussed. We are looking forward to this change in the available price.
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