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Oil dropped by about 2% on Fri, declining for the 2nd week, due to concern about weakened demand in China and further increases to U.S. interest rates. Brent crude settled down 2.4% at USD87.62. WTI crude settled at USD80.08, losing 1.9%. Both crudes touched intra-day lows near the Sep lows this year. Both benchmarks posted weekly losses, with Brent down about 9% and WTI roughly 10%.
A stronger U.S. dollar also pushed down crude prices.
The market structure of both oil benchmarks shifted in ways that reflect dwindling supply concerns.
Supply concerns are waning. The current WTI contract is now trading at a discount to the second month, a structure known as contango, for the first time since 2021, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. This condition will also benefit those looking to put more oil in inventories for later, especially with stocks still at low levels. "The deeper the contango, the more likely the market will put those barrels in storage," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.
Brent was still in the opposite structure, backwardation, though the premium of nearby Brent over barrels loading in 6 months fell as low as USD3, the lowest since Apr.
China, which sources say is looking to slow crude imports from Saudi Arabia, has seen a rise in COVID-19 cases while hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes have been dented by remarks from some Fed officials.
"On the demand side, there are concerns about an economic slowdown," said Avatrade's Naeem Aslam. "The path of least resistance seems skewed to the downside."
The Fed is expected to raise rates by a smaller 50 bps at its Dec. 13-14 policy meeting after 4 consecutive hikes of 75 bps, a Reuters poll showed.
OPEC+, which began a new round of supply cuts in Nov, holds a policy meeting on Dec. 4. They announced production cuts when oil prices reached Sep lows and I think they may cut again on further weakness. This will lift oil prices. If oil prices rebound then bullish double bottoms would be formed. Otherwise, oil prices will continue to fall below these critical levels.

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