Poland is under attack, is the change coming?

Poland was suddenly attacked.

Just today, Warsaw, the capital of Poland, released a message that shocked the world.

This has always been the case with heavy intelligence affecting the global market. Let me talk about a few key points that we must pay attention to in this intelligence:

1. Poland is a member of NATO, while Ukraine is not. if the situation shows that this missile was launched by Russia, even if it is only mistakenly fired, then the entire Ukrainian-Russian war will immediately escalate and develop into a conflict between Russia and NATO as a whole. You know, NATO members have signed a common defense agreement, and each member is hit, it can be regarded as a blow to NATO as a whole. It will also be all military forces, including Europe and the United States.

2. Poland's statement was very subtle, specifically stating that it was a Russian-made missile, not a Russian missile. There is a big difference between the two. You have to understand that the current Ukrainian venting weapons system has always been Russian-made, especially its commonly used Smur300 system. So another implication of Poland is that the missile could also be launched by Ukraine, and in order to avoid danger, Poland once again stated that there is no evidence to show who launched the missile that fell into Poland.

Shortly after the incident, Russia issued a statement saying that the incident was a deliberate provocation, denying that its forces had aimed missiles at any Ukrainian-Polish border, let alone fired.

Here, you need to understand that the missile targeting system can be monitored and recorded. If there is a long-range targeting behavior, even if the missile is not fired, it is impossible to monitor or cannot be tracked by the intelligence warfare strength of the United States. Unless they fully understand who is doing this, they don't want to make it public for the time being.

4. On the Ukrainian side, Zelansky is selling miserably to major participants around the world at the G20 summit via video line. after the news came out, Zelansky immediately solemnly said: missile attacks on NATO territory. This is a missile attack on collective security by Russia, and it is a very major escalation of the war. We need to take immediate action. It is only a matter of time before Russian terror spreads.

What he said did not give people a chance to distinguish. He came up with the conclusion that the missile was launched by Russia, and it was not too big to drag the entire NATO into the quagmire of war.

5, the Polish spokesman responded that if it was a misfire, Russia needs to apologize immediately. The Pentagon's response to this was an understatement: the United States is ready to defend every inch of NATO land, while senior officials such as the US Foreign Minister and the president did not respond.

You see, in the face of Zelansky's tugging, the victim Poland came to "play tai chi", saying that there was the possibility of mistakenly shooting, even if it was really launched by Russia, there was room for discussion, so the conclusion is already very obvious. NATO does not want to fight.

I saw all the above information on the official Twitter account, and some of the background reports came from overseas authoritative media. You see, when I edited all the messages to you, is it clear at a glance?

Of course, it is not possible to draw a final conclusion until the final official conclusion is confirmed, and if this moth is really directed and performed by Ukraine, it actually shows that the situation in Ukraine this winter is already overwhelming. The end of the war is not far off.

At the G20 summit that had just begun, Zelansky sent out via video link: 20 demands for the end of the war, including Russia's unconditional withdrawal, ensuring global food, energy security, exchange of prisoners on both sides, and preventing the conflict from escalating, but this is only Lansky's own words, because Putin did not come to the G20, and in response, Russia immediately began bombing all over Ukraine.

At the same time, the Russian air force is busy cracking down on Ukraine's infrastructure such as power generation, water conservancy, and energy, and the Russian military's intention is also obvious. In fact, it is consuming, consuming the soaring inflation in Europe and the United States. Let Europe stop aid to Ukraine before the debt crisis breaks out.

Because Putin knows very well that the result of the continuing war must be to lose the whole game. The shortage of energy, the cut-off of the supply chain and the soaring dollar are all double-edged swords. Although they have given support to the US market, they have formed a strong capital suction to the non-American region. Europe, Japan, Australia and other countries can no longer support it. Even if a global recession breaks out in the end, it must not be Russia that is the worst. So what is there to be afraid of in Russia? All we have to do is to maintain the state of war, minimize losses, and then waste Europe and the United States to watch the show.

At this point, you may understand why Russian troops withdrew from Helsson as soon as the winter battle, which seemed to be good for both the weather and Russia, had just begun.

Hirsson was the first city occupied by Russian troops after invading Ukraine, and it also continued to invade the hinterland of Ukraine to complete what Russia called: to open up the mouth of the Black Sea, to capture Urnan and connect Crimea, and to control the bridgehead of strategic ideas such as east of the Dnieper River. without Herzon, Russian logistical supplies could not keep up, and cross-river operations brought Russian troops a lot of risks, such as flooding, chain cutting and so on. So pulling out of Herzon looks like the defeat of the Russian army. Some people even analyze that there is a power problem within Russia.

According to foreign media political reports, after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Herzon, the Ukrainian army found that the fortifications at the front were intact, and Ukraine accepted Helsson without resistance or traps, which was not like a withdrawal, but rather a handover.

If our previous analysis is right, the strategy of Russian troops may have changed since the beginning of winter. this is not a withdrawal, but a strategic shift from attack to the defensive of minimizing casualties. Ukraine was forced to submit through long-range bombing and the severe cold in winter. You know, Russia has just mobilized 300000 of its domestic troops, and if it is still engaged in a sea war and there are a large number of casualties, the aftermath can not keep up. I am afraid that there will be a crisis of democracy.

Withdrawing from the Dnieper River, abandoning Herzon, and confronting the Urumqi army, they not only avoided a large number of casualties caused by the dam attack, but also ensured their own supplies, while watching the Ukrainian army waiting for rescue from Europe and the United States in the extreme cold. Zelansky has been waiting for the latest aid of more than 3 billion euros in Europe, which has been several months late. So this is probably the cause of the inexplicable attack on Poland.

Let's take a look at the aid to Ukraine from Europe and the United States from January to October 3, totaling nearly 30 billion US dollars.

Poland ranks third, the first two are the United States and the United Kingdom, and the aid given by the United States even exceeds that of European countries. Why? Because the benefits are all on the American side:

On the one hand, energy prices soar, cutting off trade channels between Europe and Russia, monopolizing energy exports to Europe, and American energy companies are making a lot of money.

On the other hand, the war brought safe havens back to the United States, and the dollar rose, propping up the US debt and US stock markets, exporting inflation to the world, like star suction, harvesting all the money from before the recession to its own side.

The worst is Europe, especially Poland, where aid accounts for 0.3% of the country's GDP and 0.9% of Bolivia, but even so, the impact of inflation should be borne, missiles should still be beaten, hey, poor thing!

You may wonder, why is Europe so stupid to be cheated by this and that? In fact, you can find out how many political parties there are after the split in Europe, how many of these political parties are pro-American, how many sticks there are in these pro-American parties, and that there are countless entanglements between the whip and American interests. European politics is a world full of thugs, and if you don't listen to your father, you have to come down. There are too few iron ladies I admire like Merkel.

All right, after talking about the form of the war between Ukraine and Russia, let's take a final look at US stocks:

Ouch! The disk is about to change.

You should be careful. After the CPI, the United States walked out of a rare pulse rally in anticipation of a slowdown in interest rate increases, with the S & P close to 4100. We have shared the overall pace of US stocks a long time ago, and there is likely to be a double dip around 4100 after bottoming out, and the current turnaround is likely to be right after the attack on Poland.

The long-period resistance level was suppressed by the 200-day moving average.

To your surprise, instead of turning down after the attack on Poland, S & P futures rose slightly to test a high of 4050, completing the "wall of worry" we mentioned repeatedly before.

Why? It's simple. The market is not so gullible.

Just like the story of the Cuban missile crisis, if the Soviet Union's missile strike rumors are false, it must be the right choice to buy the futures index when the rumors arise, because the market is bound to cover short positions after refuting the rumors, not to mention that the attack on Poland actually indicates the marginal relaxation of the war between Ukraine and Russia.

And if the rumors are true and the consequences of the escalation of the war are terrible, then there will be no point in the right or wrong of the deal.

Therefore, after the first important resistance level of the big rebound has been touched, the volatile market of US stocks is about to begin, and the volatility has risen significantly.

And from the comparison of the trend of high-level debt ETF and S & P, the stagnation of bond rebound gives more signals to US stocks to start a double dip.

We have to understand that the previous sharp rebound in the global market was triggered by four positive resonances: one is the expected slowdown of interest rate increases, the other is the beginning of ice-breaking in China and M, the hype of reopen on our side, and the marginal relaxation of the war between Ukraine and Russia.

It can be said that different ranges of pricing have been included in the trend of the market, of course, the possibility of these advantages is high and low, if which good is falsified, the market may turn around at any time.

Therefore, US stocks have come to a tight balance stage in which the good is fully priced, but the bearish is still waiting to be proved. You can look back at yesterday's US stocks. On the one-hour trend of S & P futures, two different Fed officials made very different speeches of one eagle and one dove, and the result was a situation in which hawks fell and doves rose.

This shows that the current market sentiment is very fragile, any hawkish bearish will cause a lot of shock. Judging from the previous interest rate increases initiated by the Federal Reserve, there is no one that ends without triggering a huge recession or economic crisis.

So there is still a large degree of expectation in the market that the Fed will not withdraw from austerity until it triggers another major recession.

What's more, the liquidity crisis in the u.s. stock market is becoming more and more obvious. the collapse of the digital currency and the collapse of FTX show that the most sensitive assets are collapsing before the fed gets serious about it, while the fed still holds 30 trillion of its balance sheet despite repeated references to it. Therefore, the future fate of US stocks is only in the hands of inflation.

As we have shared in the group, the last CPI data does not mean anything. The last straw that crushes the camel will only be the second CPI. If both signs are that inflation is peaking, then there may be no reason for the Fed to continue to tighten sharply.

Another thing to be careful about is that the market has not begun to price the impact of the recession. At present, a large number of technology companies have laid off staff. Meta has laid off 13% of its employees, Twitter has laid off 50%, Microsoft Corp has laid off 1000, Snap Inc has laid off 20%.

These signs of unemployment have not yet triggered expectations of a widespread recession, according to Bloomberg's predictions, if the Fed does not withdraw from raising interest rates in time because of inflation peaking, the end point of interest rates of 5% will lead to unemployment of 4% and 6% of interest rates will lead to unemployment of 5%. According to historical recession indicators, an unemployment rate of more than 4% will trigger a sufficiently long-term recession.