It's so hard
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ What's going on recently? Due to high expenses, the net profit side declined sharply. Nvidia's net profit for the third quarter was only 680 million yuan, a sharp drop of 72% over the previous year.
Some investors calculated valuations based on Nvidia's net profit for the past 4 quarters and came up with a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 66 times. Based on this, they think the bubble is serious.
This valuation method is completely wrong. For cyclical stocks, when the price-earnings ratio is calculated when the industry is sluggish, it will appear unusually high, yet this slump is only a temporary phenomenon, so investors don't have to worry about Nvidia's declining net profit.
Going back to the guidelines for the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to be 6 billion US dollars, fluctuating 2% up and down, and the median forecast is slightly lower than the market's forecast of 6.09 billion dollars.
The good news is that the gross margin guideline for the fourth quarter was 63.2%, which is significantly higher than the past two quarters.
At the performance meeting, management believes that after the end of the fourth quarter, channel inventory for game products is expected to return to normal levels, and revenue is expected to increase sequentially.
This validates analysts' conjecture that inventories peaked in the third quarter. According to Nvidia's performance in the semiconductor downturn cycle in 2018, once inventories begin to decline, stock prices are expected to bottom out: considering that after the Fed raised interest rates, the world economy may fall into recession. Currently, the market predicts that the PC market may still decline by 5%-10% in 2023. Therefore, it will still take time for semiconductors to resume growth after going through dark times. During this period, it may be difficult for Nvidia to perform.
Perhaps Berkshire set up large TSMC positions in the third quarter, or they also think that the third quarter was the lowest point for semiconductors.
After the darkest hour, the dawn of Nvidia is dawning! $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$
Some investors calculated valuations based on Nvidia's net profit for the past 4 quarters and came up with a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 66 times. Based on this, they think the bubble is serious.
This valuation method is completely wrong. For cyclical stocks, when the price-earnings ratio is calculated when the industry is sluggish, it will appear unusually high, yet this slump is only a temporary phenomenon, so investors don't have to worry about Nvidia's declining net profit.
Going back to the guidelines for the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to be 6 billion US dollars, fluctuating 2% up and down, and the median forecast is slightly lower than the market's forecast of 6.09 billion dollars.
The good news is that the gross margin guideline for the fourth quarter was 63.2%, which is significantly higher than the past two quarters.
At the performance meeting, management believes that after the end of the fourth quarter, channel inventory for game products is expected to return to normal levels, and revenue is expected to increase sequentially.
This validates analysts' conjecture that inventories peaked in the third quarter. According to Nvidia's performance in the semiconductor downturn cycle in 2018, once inventories begin to decline, stock prices are expected to bottom out: considering that after the Fed raised interest rates, the world economy may fall into recession. Currently, the market predicts that the PC market may still decline by 5%-10% in 2023. Therefore, it will still take time for semiconductors to resume growth after going through dark times. During this period, it may be difficult for Nvidia to perform.
Perhaps Berkshire set up large TSMC positions in the third quarter, or they also think that the third quarter was the lowest point for semiconductors.
After the darkest hour, the dawn of Nvidia is dawning! $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Apple(AAPL.US$
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Silverbat : 172?