UPDATE November 14 - The Weeks Ahead
iam going to do a long post, cover a lot of tickers, throw a lot of numbers, charts, theories and predictions at you. The numbers used should be guides not destinations. The counts change and that changes numbers, this is my count now... Also very important - I tried to copy as close as I could, but moo is not my wave software and I transferred it by hand so there are sure to be errors in where I labeled.
what a wild week, will it continue?
short answer - YES! This is the 3rd week, where options are the heaviest, and we just came off of a massive swing week and the options desk was going crazy for this week. (some massive bullish bets up to 320 and massive bearish bets down to 260, the trick with these strikes is that the holder doesn't want these to fill, they want to sell them to unsuspecting traders who see big candles and FOMO thinking they are getting an OTM option that's going to pay out - once they buy the market will reverse and they will lose it all... Some advice - if you miss the run whichever direction, wait with cash - another run will be around shortly)
OK, so I kind of hinted at what I expect - We only have a couple of weeks to hit a bottom (this is a momentum time calculation based on cyclical runs, if you follow me you know time is the hardest to predict *there are too many unknown variables to be truly accurate* but it gives a window usually within a couple deviations, in this case since iam using a weekly chart the deviation is a day or 3) but before we do, we should have 2 runs up *with most likely a large drop in between (lots of options buyers just made a bundle and are looking to sell... I was selling at the end of the day Friday)
I have already shared my price targets for NQ but here they are again *these are ranges* and this is still a bear market so watch support. because at any time the bear can wake up and send the market down.
i expect (this does not have to be during regular market hours) to reach 291 before a pullback to 279 but as far down as 275 (a wild option week could give us wild swings ^I will explain this a little more later). Then I expect a run back up to 301. Now, how this plays out is the fun part. Because of the large option expiry I could see a massive swing up down and up this week completing the entire cycle - but more likely is completing wave 3 towards 291 and starting the pullback towards the bottom of wave 4 beginning with a pullback here (3 wave, which this should be, are 3 up 2 down; up-down-up-down- final up reaching 291. we have already completed the first up down and are probably close to the second up completing *yellow #s leaving a down and final up to 291- so one could say this dip could coutiosly be bought- then sold around 291) down to ~283 and then taking a couple days to reach 291 (tue/wed). After that I would expect a quick sell down towards the wave 4 bottom (wave 4 down should be 3 moves down-up-down) this would have the first leg down starting on wed/thur with a possible rise on Friday (expiry) leaving the following week (Thanksgiving) with a down before starting the run up towards 301 (on a short trading week- no market thursday and closed early on black friday) which according to my timeline lands us reaching around 301 maybe as high as 311 right near the FED date of Dec 14. Now like I said time is the hardest to predict, and has been seen, my count can be off. But that is wild right? and also just a wild prediction, this is how I anticipate my trades, but I do not make them until I SEE it playing out. I do not trade in anticipation of the wave, I ride it until it changes... OK that is a horrendous lie, I would just never, ever tell someone to do differently, I often throw money at massive long shots in anticipation of moves but I don't mind losing and have a very high risk tolerance, and when I do I have much larger safer plays to offset much of the trade
^ the market makers are the ones who fill most of the option orders. They see and know every order that comes through (its their exchange). Most of the time this is no big deal as options historically have offset each other, but the last few years has led to uneven weighting in options (this could be algorithmic trading or the general media manipulation... yes the market is manipulated- get over it, instead understand it and go with it). When the market is overweight to one side and if it were to move that direction the payoff could cause MMs to lose liquidity (and their goal is to be neutral, they make their money off fees and information. and let's be honest, no one wants a market that can't fill your orders *that would be very, very bad) in order for the MMs to prevent that, the market will swing and many of the options will expire worthless, liberating the MMs from the consequences of illiquidity.
... Futures just opened with a gap down (imagine that)
Take from the above what you will, but it's important to remember that the market changes as it goes... Let's look at some individual tickers/products.
The dollar is in a correction in a bullish wave, so 3 down in a down-up-down pattern and it just went from 114 to 106 with a 103 target. That tells me it should be looking for a correction and a rise up to 109 'ish before dropping again to 103.
high yield bonds, this will tell you where the market wants to go, often referred to as "smart money" (because the bond market dwarfs the stock market therefore only big experienced players play) $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$
Those are the tickers to watch as you follow the indexes, along with your individual tickers.
Here are a couple of stocks iam in
this is a fun one, should the dollar find a pause and hold or rise up for a bit, that should drop cliff back into the 14s (or fill the gap down to 13.9) before a run to 18-21 .
I was big on the precious metals, especially using $MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN(GDXU.US)$ which ran from 21 to 42 in a week. (I will use this on the runs, when I sell, then I use the GAINS to buy select miners stock at the dip, then I use the rest to rebuy GDXU provided there is another run coming *i also do this with oil using GUSH and DRIP. $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares(GUSH.US)$ $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares(DRIP.US)$
Precious metals should run opposite the dollar, and rise with falling rates, once the market confirms stagflation or depression the precious metals will fly (I still believe lots of smart money did this in September, the start of the triple bottom) $Micro Silver Futures Main(MAR3)(SILmain.US)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US)$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust(PSLV.CA)$ $VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ.US)$ $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX.US)$
There is a specific section in the energy sector that has been lagging and needs to catch up (you know I love my LAGGARDS)
Pick a ticker any uranium ticker, here are some. $Denison Mines(DNN.US)$$Uranium Energy(UEC.US)$$Energy Fuels(UUUU.US)$$Global X Uranium ETF(URA.US)$$Exchange Traded Concepts Trust North Shore Global Uranium Mng Etf(URNM.US)$$Cameco(CCJ.US)$ (the ETFs have access to Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan's national operator, and exporter of the largest quantity and quality of uranium in the world. it is not available on most us exchanges)
UUUU - energy fuels, one of the many I own. (I create my own mini "ETFs" with my own baskets of stocks managed by ME, for free, haha )
Now onto the heavy stuff
OIL- $Crude Oil Futures Main(MAR3)(CLmain.US)$ oil is going to bounce around for a few days, until it breaks - out or down. If the markets move as I suspect, I think we get a breakout along with the market (on it's way to 301)
when a chart does that - options do this -
since I got this done and have a little time, some futures -
updated future: I fell asleep, but here is an updated 2 hr, not much different, still doing what I predicted
2 hr - this chart I showed how you can use the indicators to prove the count.
excuse the sloppy chart, I will try to put less on them in the future.
trade safely, be wise, be nimble and as always
keep an ear towards the rail strike - I just had a delivery delayed an entire day because the train was so far behind it needed a day to catch up. They wouldn't give me any direct answers, but my inclination was that this was labor caused. This may sound like no big deal. but a day delay in an "at demand" market is putting pressure on goods inflation.
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